Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Ozy_Flame]

Dollars to donuts they change Trudeau out, this riding easily flips back. This riding basically also votes NDP provincially, and based on the byelection vote breakdown is still basically centrist-left on balance, even with Trudeau fatigue.

This is a win for the Cons, and a remarkable one, but this particular riding is still up in the air for 2025 IMO. And it might finally get the Libs to kick Justin out.

[Ashartus]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

It's a disaster for Trudeau. It could be good news for Liberals who see it as a big risk to go into the next election with him leading. Lots of time to replace him, but it's still going to be an uphill battle for a new leader to not be seen as more of the same after so many years.

The serious leadership contenders might want him to stay. I've heard the general sentiment is the Liberals will lose the next election no matter who is at the helm and they might prefer to blame Trudeau for the loss then get a fresh start.

[Ozy_Flame]

Yup. And you rebuild the party after 2025 with a new leader, new vision, and new messaging. And there will be plenty to come after the PP Cons with once the election honeymoon is over.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Yup. And you rebuild the party after 2025 with a new leader, new vision, and new messaging. And there will be plenty to come after the PP Cons with once the election honeymoon is over.

Sure, there is a future there, you just have to ride out a "Kim Campbell" election in the meantime. That's soul crushing and that is the kind of thing that can become existential for the party faster than people think. You get smashed in the next election, the NDP moves slightly centrist and eats your lunch, and then you have a polarization that happens pretty quickly.

[Ozy_Flame]

Ok, but that doesn't negate the Libs can regroup and reset. They were in 3rd place in 2011 and won power in 2015. It's not like they're going away, no matter how much people dislike them now. Words like "soul crushing" and "existential" are overly dramatic. This is just Canadian musical chairs. Sunrise, sunset.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Yeah sure. And we can all agree it's more of an indictment on Trudeau and the Libs than it is a thumbs up for conservatism. But 500 votes is a razor thin margin, and this could have gone to the Libs again even with a protest vote.

You’re still not getting it. If the Liberals can lose what was thought to be a secure stronghold riding by a tiny margin, it means they’re likely to lose most other ridings by wider margins. And the Liberals poured a tonne of resources into this by-election.

There isn’t a Liberal MP in Canada waking up this morning to a safe seat. It’s a disaster for the party.

[Ped]

Well, to be fair, it is entirely possibly that this is a warning shot to Trudeau, and the seat will happily flip in the next election. But it's also interesting that the NDP and Greens also lost votes.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Ped

Well, to be fair, it is entirely possibly that this is a warning shot to Trudeau, and the seat will happily flip in the next election. But it's also interesting that the NDP and Greens also lost votes.

Punt Trudeau, St. Paul's goes back Liberal again. I would put money on it. This is not a safe seat for the Cons at all in 2025. The Libs will be the the ones who decide if they want St. Paul back or not. There's an easy fix here.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Blech. 45% turnout. Ontario voter apathy wins again.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Typical vote split. You'd think with so many angry people against Trudeau voter turnout would have been higher. I suspect there was some "Libs will win, no need" and "I don't like any option" voters who stayed home. I mean 500 votes is hardly a resounding victory. Stewart even had a concession speech before the late rally of votes that put him over the top.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Yeah sure. And we can all agree it's more of an indictment on Trudeau and the Libs than it is a thumbs up for conservatism. But 500 votes is a razor thin margin, and this could have gone to the Libs again even with a protest vote.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Yup. And you rebuild the party after 2025 with a new leader, new vision, and new messaging. And there will be plenty to come after the PP Cons with once the election honeymoon is over.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Dollars to donuts they change Trudeau out, this riding easily flips back. This riding basically also votes NDP provincially, and based on the byelection vote breakdown is still basically centrist-left on balance, even with Trudeau fatigue.

This is a win for the Cons, and a remarkable one, but this particular riding is still up in the air for 2025 IMO. And it might finally get the Libs to kick Justin out.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Ok, but that doesn't negate the Libs can regroup and reset. They were in 3rd place in 2011 and won power in 2015. It's not like they're going away, no matter how much people dislike them now. Words like "soul crushing" and "existential" are overly dramatic. This is just Canadian musical chairs. Sunrise, sunset.

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Punt Trudeau, St. Paul's goes back Liberal again. I would put money on it. This is not a safe seat for the Cons at all in 2025. The Libs will be the the ones who decide if they want St. Paul back or not. There's an easy fix here.

Your absolute raging partisan denial going through the stages of grief to explain this is hilarious to watch.

[Ozy_Flame]

Would you say you're slightly moist reading this or completely soaked? The people deserve answers!

[chemgear]

####ing wild.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10586427/...suspects-bail/

Nearly half of the 124 people arrested by Ontario’s carjacking task force were out on bail, police say, with many being released again after their latest arrest.

The Provincial Carjacking Joint Task Force, which operated from September 2023 until March, saw 124 arrests made and 749 criminal charges laid, police said.

“The stats are rather staggering,” he said.

“The lack of potential consequences might be a driving factor as well. And frankly our court system, rightly so, gives gives people second chances, and sometimes third and fourth chances. …

“Thankfully in this country, people are given a second chance. But when it’s when it’s multiple times, it is frustrating, for sure.”

[Firebot]

That the Liberals actually thought that bringing in Chrystia Freeland to tell us the alternative to Trudeau is cold and cruelty to help rally the troops for Toronto-St. Paul's just shows how out of touch Liberals are with average Canadians. It's a systemic issue with the Liberal party (and NDP included), not a Trudeau is stale issue.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1805274540261667020

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Slava

Sure, there is a future there, you just have to ride out a "Kim Campbell" election in the meantime. That's soul crushing and that is the kind of thing that can become existential for the party faster than people think. You get smashed in the next election, the NDP moves slightly centrist and eats your lunch, and then you have a polarization that happens pretty quickly.

Singh moving centrist?

Ahahahahahaha.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Firebot

That the Liberals actually thought that bringing in Chrystia Freeland to tell us the alternative to Trudeau is cold and cruelty to help rally the troops for Toronto-St. Paul's just shows how out of touch Liberals are with average Canadians. It's a systemic issue with the Liberal party (and NDP included), not a Trudeau is stale issue.

How in touch with Canadians are the CPC? If Trudeau steps down they basically lose their only talking point aside from pretending they’re going to get rid of all forms of carbon taxes for everyone.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Slava

Sure, there is a future there, you just have to ride out a "Kim Campbell" election in the meantime. That's soul crushing and that is the kind of thing that can become existential for the party faster than people think. You get smashed in the next election, the NDP moves slightly centrist and eats your lunch, and then you have a polarization that happens pretty quickly.

I don't know if the current situation is really comparable to 1993, for reasons that are both good and bad for the Liberals. The PCs lost a lot of votes to an upstart party that doesn't have a current equivalent. So they got 16% of the vote, but only 2 seats which wiped them out and the Reform party effectively replaced them. I don't think there's much reason to think that the NDP could permanently supplant the Liberals, so I'd expect any time in the wilderness to be more akin to the post-Chretien/Martin period than permanent relegation.

Also, I think people understate how poor the PC's campaign was in 1993. Once Mulroney announced he was stepping down, the PC's polling numbers immediately went up from 15-20% in late 1992/early 1993 to 35-45% in the spring of 1993, giving them the lead in about half the polls in that period. Then they consistently polled at ~35% through the summer and once the election was called, they actually led until about a month before the election. Eventually their support cratered, but there was a 6-7 month period after Mulroney stepped down where they went from consistently polling in 3rd or 4th place (often in the 12-14% range) in 1991-1992 to contending for the lead. I don't think the same thing would happen this time, but I also wouldn't underestimate a potential bump if Trudeau is gone.

On the other hand, the PCs were primarily hurt by economic woes and policy. The unemployment rate was 11-12% when Mulroney stepped down, the effects of the early '90s recession were still strong, and the GST was unpopular. But new leadership for the party in power could be seen as something that could change the course. Whereas with Trudeau and the current Liberals, people dislike them for a lot of reasons, and I think it'll be harder to sell a message of change due to a new leader than it was in 1993.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't know if the current situation is really comparable to 1993, for reasons that are both good and bad for the Liberals. The PCs lost a lot of votes to an upstart party that doesn't have a current equivalent. So they got 16% of the vote, but only 2 seats which wiped them out and the Reform party effectively replaced them. I don't think there's much reason to think that the NDP could permanently supplant the Liberals, so I'd expect any time in the wilderness to be more akin to the post-Chretien/Martin period than permanent relegation.

Also, I think people understate how poor the PC's campaign was in 1993. Once Mulroney announced he was stepping down, the PC's polling numbers immediately went up from 15-20% in late 1992/early 1993 to 35-45% in the spring of 1993, giving them the lead in about half the polls in that period. Then they consistently polled at ~35% through the summer and once the election was called, they actually led until about a month before the election. Eventually their support cratered, but there was a 6-7 month period after Mulroney stepped down where they went from consistently polling in 3rd or 4th place (often in the 12-14% range) in 1991-1992 to contending for the lead. I don't think the same thing would happen this time, but I also wouldn't underestimate a potential bump if Trudeau is gone.

On the other hand, the PCs were primarily hurt by economic woes and policy. The unemployment rate was 11-12% when Mulroney stepped down, the effects of the early '90s recession were still strong, and the GST was unpopular. But new leadership for the party in power could be seen as something that could change the course. Whereas with Trudeau and the current Liberals, people dislike them for a lot of reasons, and I think it'll be harder to sell a message of change due to a new leader than it was in 1993.

Yeah, there are some vast differences, but some parallels as you point out. To me, the loss last night shows pretty clearly that the Liberals better take this seriously though. It basically indicates that there are no safe seats at this point, and that is a massive problem.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Singh moving centrist?

Ahahahahahaha.

yeah, seems pretty crazy. But then again, the Liberals have moved further left over the past 8 years, so they're not that far apart today. If the Liberals get wrecked in this election, it's not a stretch to see significant elements of the party supporting the NDP as opposed to the CPC.

[Ped]

First Singh would need to divest himself from the Liberals, and that is probably harder said than done.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

How in touch with Canadians are the CPC? If Trudeau steps down they basically lose their only talking point aside from pretending they’re going to get rid of all forms of carbon taxes for everyone.

Did you skip Freeland's tweet I linked? The picture is certainly not rosier when you have Liberal MPs like Freeland around who may take his place.

How much in touch CPC are with Canadians as a whole doesn't matter, if they are the only party even remotely listening to what matters most to average Canadians today. 40% is better than 0. It should be obvious they have little intentions of being in touch with everyone considering how the CPC choose to go further right with Poilievre instead of moving left.

What was missed in this byelection (despite Ozy_Flame oddly rambling about vote splitting) is how poorly the NDP did considering the Liberals are in a freefall. If Liberals are so out of touch that they lost one of their stronghold seats, albeit still getting 40% of the votes, what does that make the NDP who came in at 10%? This is the NDP's worst showing in this riding since 2000.

There was a left / ABC alternative to the Liberals available and voters instead went to the CPC or even to some of the 80 protest candidates. That says just as much about the NDP than it does about Trudeau or the Liberals.

This is a lot more than just "Trudeau needs to go" as some of you are rationalizing. This is a complete rejection of the status quo presented by the Liberal-NDP coalition.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Firebot

How much in touch CPC are with Canadians as a whole doesn't matter, if they are the only party even remotely listening to what matters most to average Canadians today. 40% is better than 0.

Unless you're talking about LGBTQ+ rights, the environment, and science. As long as the CPC are cozying up to the freedom caucus movement, they are certainly not listening to average Canadians, but the fringe.