Stanley Cup: Florida Panthers [ATL1] vs Edmonton Oilers [PAC2] - Florida wins 4-3

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Why does a 3-0 series lead have a lower win rate than a 3-1 series lead? All they did was lose, yet their chances increase?
Or something about taking the longer path to a 3-1 series lead makes it even more advantageous than simply winning the first 3 games.

No teams have ever come back from 3-1 who weren't down 3-0.

10x a team that's been down 2-1 has lost game four and every time they lost the series. Whereas you have the one team that came back from 3-0.

But you're right, kind of a strange stat

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Why does a 3-0 series lead have a lower win rate than a 3-1 series lead? All they did was lose, yet their chances increase?
Or something about taking the longer path to a 3-1 series lead makes it even more advantageous than simply winning the first 3 games.

It's really just an artifact of the fact that a lot of those 3-0 leads end up in the 3-1 category.

The 3-0 teams are 27-1
The 3-1 teams are 37-1

The team that won after being down 3-0 would be the same team that won down 3-1.

So really the stat is other than the team that came back from being down 3-0, no other team has come back from a 3-1 deficit.

So you've got a larger number of series that go to 3-1, but still just that 1 team in the comback win column, so the win % for the leading team goes up.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Why does a 3-0 series lead have a lower win rate than a 3-1 series lead? All they did was lose, yet their chances increase?
Or something about taking the longer path to a 3-1 series lead makes it even more advantageous than simply winning the first 3 games.

It’s simply backward looking results, not a forward looking predictive number.

[Paulie Walnuts]

It doesn't matter. If Florida wins tonight they are in the drivers seat.

If they win the next 2 we are in good shape.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Bring_Back_Shantz

It's really just an artifact of the fact that a lot of those 3-0 leads end up in the 3-1 category.

The 3-0 teams are 27-1
The 3-1 teams are 37-1

The team that won after being down 3-0 would be the same team that won down 3-1.

So really the stat is other than the team that came back from being down 3-0, no other team has come back from a 3-1 deficit.

So you've got a larger number of series that go to 3-1, but still just that 1 team in the comback win column, so the win % for the leading team goes up.

I don’t think this is exactly right.

3-1 would include teams that were down 3-0, but also teams that were down 2-1, 1-0, and even up 1-0. So the team that won while down 3-0 is the same team that won down 3-1, but the team that won 3-1 wasn’t necessary ever down 3-0… if that makes sense.

Basically, it’s just showing that your chances of winning one game are higher than zero games, but lower than two games… which makes perfect sense.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Call me biased or mildly sadistic but I'd like the cats to win it on Rogers Place ice.

Game 4 > Game 6

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Call me biased or mildly sadistic but I'd like the cats to win it on Rogers Place ice.

Game 4 > Game 6

The goal should be the sweep as I don't want to see those smug d-bags up north celebrate another win this season. I don't care where Florida raises the cup as long as it's them raising the cup.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Bennett and Tkachuk being the first players to raise the cup(with fans) on that ice would be one of the biggest gifts ever.

Especially after everything happened to us in 2022 offseason and since.

[Buff]

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

[Ba'alzamon]

Originally Posted by Buff

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

um.


Pronger was waaay closer to being the best in 2006 than Bouchard is now lol.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Buff

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

In that year, ex-Flames Stillman and Commodore helped get the job done.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by Buff

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

Did Makar get traded to Edmonton recently?

[Buff]

Originally Posted by theslymonkey

Did Makar get traded to Edmonton recently?

I'm sure Oilahz fans would say "Dude, Where's Makar? ... not int he SCF like BooooshBomb!"

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by Buff

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

Pardon my ignorance, who is that "best defenseman" he's talking about?

[btimbit]

Surely they just mean Nurse. He gets paid more, that means he's better, right?

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I don’t think this is exactly right.

3-1 would include teams that were down 3-0, but also teams that were down 2-1, 1-0, and even up 1-0. So the team that won while down 3-0 is the same team that won down 3-1, but the team that won 3-1 wasn’t necessary ever down 3-0… if that makes sense.

Basically, it’s just showing that your chances of winning one game are higher than zero games, but lower than two games… which makes perfect sense.

Keep in mind that these are all inclusive, meaning that the team that won that was down 3-0, is also in the list of teams that won while down 3-1 and 3-2.

If there is only 1 team that won after being down 3-0, and there is only 1 team that won after being down 3-1, then they MUST be the same team.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Buff

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

Carolina was a lot weaker team than the Panthers are. Their best player was 20 years old and they were riding a rookie goalie. And Carolina was coming off a 7 game series against Buffalo.

And Pronger was the best player on both teams.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Comparing a completely different team from 20 years ago along with a completely different opponent.

Whatever makes them feel good I guess.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Buff

An Oiler fan I play hockey with pointed out to me that in 2006 the Oilers went down 2-0 in the Final and almost won the cup. The thing is, back then they didn't have the best player to ever play the game, nor did they have the 2nd best forward in the world and the best defenseman.... I guess Florida is completely screwed. They should have just stayed in Miami and forfeited.

The denial is strong in this one.

Grasping at straws.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

It doesn't matter. If Florida wins tonight they are in the drivers seat.

If they win the next 2 we are in good shape.

that is an understatement...win the next two and I think some Oiler fans may admit defeat