Nothing wrong with disagreeing and I genuinely hope I am wrong, but does the above video of a blown up mall in a major city look like we are winning? Does that look like success from the worlds most powerful countries in the west?
I mean everyday we have Zelensky saying the same thing as above, he needs more and more and more and he needed it yesterday.
Did we forget the comments from the former commander of the armed forces, "At this stage there will be no big beautiful breakthrough"
I think we in the west need to temper expectations on what success for Ukraine actually means.
I think that the goals of the Western powers and the goals of Ukraine are not the same. Western Powers appear satisfied with the slow bleed of Russia and a relatively low cost. Much like Russias goal appears to be continue efforts until US election the wests goal appears to be hold the line until Russia is sick of war /Putin is removed.
I think why you are frusterated is that your expectation is a restoration of pre-2014 boarders. I don’t think that really is a stated goal of the western powers.
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Even the IMF is predicting the Russian economy out performing advanced nations according to reports.
The IMF really suck at predicting stuff. They're well know for just lazily circulating official government numbers and extrapolating from faulty information. A major reason why IMF is not pressuring countries to change their economic policies nearly as much as they used to is because they've just been so wrong so much that they don't really even trust themselves to know what's up and what's down.
It's just not a very credible organization anymore (well it never was), and there's a reason why it's not quoted nearly as much as it used to.
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A lot of revisionist history I think from a lot of people out there now that the economic, military and Putin collapses have not materialized.
I haven't seen anyone serious predict a date for Russian military or economic collapse that has passed. In fact I haven't seen anyone serious predict a Russian military collapse at all. General consensus is however that this summer is likely to be a high water mark for Russia, and that the tide will eventually start turning again, as old Soviet stockpiles wither and new western ammunition factories come online to help Ukraine.
The general consensus has been that Putins position has weakened and he is likely paranoid for good reason, but that there's no sign of immediate collapse.
No one really knows what's the reality of the Russian economy, but there have been a lot of signs that it's probably in lot more trouble than they are admitting... But that it likely isn't on the brink of some massive collapse, just in enough trouble that they can't really afford a massive war very long without risking a revolution or a palace coup.
Putin's actions also seem to support this picture. Russia is spending enormous resources to grab as much as land as they can right now while they have an advantage, and hoping to push the West into supporting peace negotiations this fall or winter, before the predicted turning of the tide happens.
The Russian Kharkiv offensive has been almost exactly like what Anders Puck Nielsen said for example. Russia made some advances but nothing major, as they just don't have the capability for large scale mobile manouvers. Exactly as predicted.
I also think Zelenskiy is right on the money when he said that the West is hesitant to fully support Ukraine because they are afraid of what would happen if Russia and Putin lost.
To my eyes there haven't really been any major surprises in the way the war has gone for a pretty long time now, and predictions have been pretty accurate. I also don't see a reason why that would change.
The key front of this war right now is Western internal politics, and Russia is doing everything in their power to convince people in the west that there's no point in continuing the war for much longer. Personally I don't think anyone should amplify Kremlins message, but of course they are amplifying voices and ideas that existed anyway, because that's most of how propaganda works.
I don't think anything has really changed. I still think that if the West commits to supporting Ukraine enough, this is an unwinnable war for Russia and that they will eventually have to retreat out of the country because their economy can't take the pressure.
That'll take time though. Absolute minimum six months if Russia is doing much, much worse than its letting on, but more likely we're talking at least a year. Big wars move slow.
I also still think it's important to keep fighting the war, because letting Putin salvage large land grabs and come out looking like a winner would set a horrible precedent that would be almost certain to create new wars. Many analysts think that Putin is already in full Hitler mode, and making plans to rebuild the Russian army quickly after the war in order to challenge NATO even more directly.
Last edited by Itse; 05-29-2024 at 01:41 AM.
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I also think Zelenskiy is right on the money when he said that the West is hesitant to fully support Ukraine because they are afraid of what would happen if Russia and Putin lost.
Many people have said this including myself for over 2 years, this is a game of chess with unfortunately replaceable pawns.
As much as I liked Obama as a president just sitting back watching Putin take Crimea was his biggest mistake. I think it keeps him up at night.
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Lots of discussion that past few days/weeks about Ukraine being allowed to finally hit targets in Russia with western equipment. Many EU countries seem to have approved it, but the US apparently has a blanket ban on any western gear being used to hit targets in russia. This was very apparent during the recent Kharkiv offensive, in which russian troops simply lined up at the border without consequence and were able to move in unimpeded. Russia knew this and took advantage. Although previously both France and the UK had said they allowed strikes to occur with their gear in russia, not a single Scalp or Storm Shadow was launched on those gathered forces. Zelensky immediately made comments post-attack that they still weren't allowed to hit russian targets in russia that might have prevented this.
Now there are quite a few countries speaking out against this policy and saying they are fine with hits in russia, but the US hasn't budged yet, although quite a bit of discussions seem to be happening behind closed doors. Hopefully the US will change their stance soon, especially with another buildup happening near the Sumy border. Saw one tweet from a UA soldier saying they could see a line of russian tanks and troops about to cross the border towards them, but they weren't allowed to shoot at them until the crossed a certain bridge. Madness to fight that way.
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On the night of May 30, SBU military counterintelligence drones “turned off” the Russian Nebo-SVU radar, which was located near Armiansk in the northern part of the Crimean peninsula. The radar station, worth $100 million, controlled a 380-kilometer section of the front. https://twitter.com/user/status/1796468950395404694
Ukraine is using drones recently that I have no idea how to identify. They obviously have advanced software that no prior drone has had. Including estimating the landing spot for dropped bombs. One drone showed the approximate area on the ground under the drown with a + and estimated bomb hit location with a O https://twitter.com/user/status/1796139643085128130
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I am interested in know how many that actually is:
647 were originally produced in the sixties and seventies, updated several times, decommissioned in 2014.
So 647 minus 50 years of peacetime losses due to wear, tear and soldiers being soldiers, rest apparently stored in stockpile.
Another data point for guesstimate is that Sweden just ordered 300 new armored vehicles from Finnish patria a couple of months ago. If we assume that they want to keep their total number of vehicles about the same...
Something in three digits.
Last edited by Itse; 05-31-2024 at 07:53 AM.
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Lots of discussion that past few days/weeks about Ukraine being allowed to finally hit targets in Russia with western equipment. Many EU countries seem to have approved it, but the US apparently has a blanket ban on any western gear being used to hit targets in russia. This was very apparent during the recent Kharkiv offensive, in which russian troops simply lined up at the border without consequence and were able to move in unimpeded. Russia knew this and took advantage. Although previously both France and the UK had said they allowed strikes to occur with their gear in russia, not a single Scalp or Storm Shadow was launched on those gathered forces. Zelensky immediately made comments post-attack that they still weren't allowed to hit russian targets in russia that might have prevented this.
Now there are quite a few countries speaking out against this policy and saying they are fine with hits in russia, but the US hasn't budged yet, although quite a bit of discussions seem to be happening behind closed doors. Hopefully the US will change their stance soon, especially with another buildup happening near the Sumy border. Saw one tweet from a UA soldier saying they could see a line of russian tanks and troops about to cross the border towards them, but they weren't allowed to shoot at them until the crossed a certain bridge. Madness to fight that way.
I'm assuming they don't want to allow for its use in Russia because that's when Ukraine could really escalate if they wanted to and bring the war to Russia, in Russia, by striking targets/civilians in cities, etc. Maybe if they adjusted it to allowing their usage within a small distance from the border into Russia (e.g. 300km or whatever) could work.
I'm assuming they don't want to allow for its use in Russia because that's when Ukraine could really escalate if they wanted to and bring the war to Russia, in Russia, by striking targets/civilians in cities, etc. Maybe if they adjusted it to allowing their usage within a small distance from the border into Russia (e.g. 300km or whatever) could work.
I saw on the the ticker and sure enough it looks like the US did soften their stance and is now allowing it in some form.
Yeah it makes sense and serves the purpose of defending the country when Russia is within a reasonable distance from their border, while preventing Ukrainian forces from going further which would escalate the conflict.
UA says RU troop losses in May reached 38,940, the highest monthly record since start of war. RU losses yesterday include 1080 dead, 33 APVs, 86 other vehicles, 25 tanks, 49 artillery systems, 82 drones, 6 anti-aircraft units & 14 special vehicles. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797393962396762268
Russian airfieilds are getting slaughtered by storm shadow missiles in both Belgorod and Kursk (Russia). Hard to believe Russians didn't move that stuff. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797207876101976344
Russia has lost at least 379 multiple rocket launchers since the start of the invasion according to Oryx. In this thread I will show how many they might have left in storage https://twitter.com/user/status/1797009588195107225
This morning, in the area of the village of Staritsa, the Russians launched a massive assault on our positions. Coordinated actions of all units of the 42nd Separate Mechanized Brigade destroyed hundreds of tons of equipment and a large number of personnel. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797231035232526455
Tl,dw: Kharkiv attack is starting to look like a counter-productive move.
- It might have done more to stretch Russian resources than Ukrainian ones, as the latter were already guarding that part of the border. The attack has also already basically stopped moving.
- It basically forced the West to lift limitations in how UA can use western weapons, meaning airfields and logistical centers on the Russian side of the border are now threatened by western weapons. This removes an advantage Russia used to enjoy.
- Since Putin has declared that the land taken there is "a buffer zone to protect Russia", it puts significant political pressure on the military to hold on to that land, even if it otherwise wouldn't necessarily be much of a priority. But at the same time, setting up that buffer zone is causing more missile strikes on the Russian side, which isn't likely to make anyone think that it's working as intended.
Last edited by Itse; 06-03-2024 at 02:25 AM.
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As Defence Minister, Shoigu diverted potentially over $100 million in military equipment & munitions intended for the frontline and secretly sold it off to foreign buyers via STG Logistics, a company he co-owns with Gennady Timchenko.
The greatest irony of all would be when we find out that some of the military equipment Shoigu sold off abroad was then supplied to Ukraine and used against the Russian fascists. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797661416201298359
Over 60 russian soldiers ordered to advance near near Vovchansk against crushing Ukrainian machine gun and mortar fire, and under continuous FPV drone attack have refused to fight, and have instead surrendered to the Ukrainian Army. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797696697557979530
In a tactical failure, Russian forces attempting to cross the canal in Chasiv Yar and advance on the Novi District were swiftly encircled and eliminated by Ukrainian ambushes, losing two BMD infantry fighting vehicles, a Tiger armored car, and a T-90M tank. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797906241819185223
Crimea becomes a death trap for the Russians, – The Economist Putin has invested huge amounts of money in military infrastructure in Crimea, and now it is under threat. Ukraine is trying to make Crimea a liability for Putin, not an asset. The goal is to isolate the peninsula, "strangle" it as a logistics center, and thus drive Russian air and sea forces away from the south of Ukraine. https://twitter.com/user/status/1797898622660399527
A video that will be very painful for the occupiers to watch. UAV pilots of the Bureviy brigade of the ‘Khoriv’ operational battalion asked to publish these powerful footage of the destruction of the enemy in the Serebryansky Forest
Russian losses per 04/06/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff. +1290 men +15 tanks +18 APVs +65(!) artillery pieces +2 MLRS +3 AD systems +27 UAVs https://twitter.com/user/status/1797873003373777089
Overnight, Russia attacked with two Iskander-K cruise missile which were both shot down. In addition, four Shahed drones were launched of which two were shot down https://twitter.com/user/status/1797873488629465241
