2024 NHL Draft Thread

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Many scouting services/evaluators have Helenius in their top ten.

Show me them then.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Many scouting services/evaluators have Helenius in their top ten.

I also fail to see how making a world cup roster as the youngest player in Finland's history can be seen as a bad thing.

The kid's a very good hockey player, full stop.

I don't believe the Flames think like Diss does in the slightest.

He'll be in the mix. We're getting a good player at 9 no matter which way they go. I'm all about Helenius 100 percent. Kids good, really really good. And everyone but Diss thinks so.


EDIT: oh and THW, nut bars have him 22nd. That's dumb.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Show me them then.

Without really looking, average ranking of 10 (likely senior) NHL scouts have him at 9 (one had him at 3), so that should carry enough weight. Wheeler and Steven Ellis (Daily Faceoff) do too for fan-facing guys.

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/bob-mckenzie-...rini-1.2116004

[Edit] NHL Central scouting has him as the third ranked international skater (they had him at 1 at mid-term), and based on the North American list, he's right around nine as well.

[dissentowner]

Hey, if the Flames draft him I will be cheering I am wrong and hoping he succeeds. To me I just don't see a guy who's ceiling is more than a #2 C.

[Jiggy]

Helenius put up 36 points in a men's league as a 17 year old. The Flames taking him at 9 is not a stretch, or am I missing something?

[Bingo]

In my rankings model Helenius is ...

8th McKeen's
4th FC Hockey
9th Hockey News (Kennedy)
9th McKenzie List
3rd Craig Button
3rd Recruit Scouting (Foley)
9th Scott Wheeler
7th The Hockey Writers (Forbes)

Other rankings are between 10 and 19

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by Bingo

In my rankings model Helenius is ...

8th McKeen's
4th FC Hockey
9th Hockey News (Kennedy)
9th McKenzie List
3rd Craig Button
3rd Recruit Scouting (Foley)
9th Scott Wheeler
7th The Hockey Writers (Forbes)

Other rankings are between 10 and 19

It's funny, though, that people who posted in the draft challenge 2024 thread actually agree with dissentowner and all have him going outside of the top 10.

(I get that that's not a prospect ranking list, but still.)

[dissentowner]

Perhaps I chose the wrong wording in blowing the pick. Let me rephrase it, I think there will be better players at 9 than Helenius. That being said if our scouts think he is the best player there they should take him.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

In my rankings model Helenius is ...

8th McKeen's
4th FC Hockey
9th Hockey News (Kennedy)
9th McKenzie List
3rd Craig Button
3rd Recruit Scouting (Foley)
9th Scott Wheeler
7th The Hockey Writers (Forbes)

Other rankings are between 10 and 19

On top of this Byron Bader's model at Hockeyprospecting.com has him with the 8th highest DY Star Probability (67% - Celebrini, Demidov, Parekh, Eiserman, Buium, Levhsunov, Hutson, Helenius), and the third highest NHLer probability (99% - Celebrini, Demidov, Helenius).

Any idea that Helenius would be a reach or a bad pick at 9 is compeltely unfounded IMO.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by YyjFlames

It's funny, though, that people who posted in the draft challenge 2024 thread actually agree with dissentowner and all have him going outside of the top 10.

(I get that that's not a prospect ranking list, but still.)

In my top 16 I did right after the lottery draft I actually have him going to NJ at 10.

[YyjFlames]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

In my top 16 I did right after the lottery draft I actually have him going to NJ at 10.

Lol. Really illustrates why rankings and mock drafts should be treated so differently.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

On top of this Byron Bader's model at Hockeyprospecting.com has him with the 8th highest DY Star Probability (67% - Celebrini, Demidov, Parekh, Eiserman, Buium, Levhsunov, Hutson, Helenius), and the third highest NHLer probability (99% - Celebrini, Demidov, Helenius).

Any idea that Helenius would be a reach or a bad pick at 9 is compeltely unfounded IMO.

Interesting that Hutson ranks so high as star probability but is consistently ranked outside the top 25 of the draft. Anyone know what keeps him ranked so low? He looked really good for the USA at the U-18 tournament.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Interesting that Hutson ranks so high as star probability but is consistently ranked outside the top 25 of the draft. Anyone know what keeps him ranked so low? He looked really good for the USA at the U-18 tournament.

Size

Scouts are scared of Dmen who are under 6 feet.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by stemit14

Interesting that Hutson ranks so high as star probability but is consistently ranked outside the top 25 of the draft. Anyone know what keeps him ranked so low? He looked really good for the USA at the U-18 tournament.

He's a shrimp cocktail. 160 lbs for a 5'10" human male is slenderrrrr. Or below average. That's all I can see when looking him up.

I think he goes in the 1st round though.

[Knut]

I think some are a little down on Helenius based on other recent Finish High picks. They seem to be picked high as they are playing in Men's leagues but very few reach their potential.

Heiskanen, Rantanen and Barkov definetly did but you start looking at Lundell, Laine, Puljivarri, Ristolainen, Honka, Juollevi, Valimaki, Vaakanainen, Vesalainen, Kotkaneimi, Thomson, Kaako. Long List of Finnish players drafted in the last 10 year in the top 20 picks that never hit in the NHL.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Knut

I think some are a little down on Helenius based on other recent Finish High picks. They seem to be picked high as they are playing in Men's leagues but very few reach their potential.

Heiskanen, Rantanen and Barkov definetly did but you start looking at Lundell, Laine, Puljivarri, Ristolainen, Honka, Juollevi, Valimaki, Vaakanainen, Vesalainen, Kotkaneimi, Thomson, Kaako. Long List of Finnish players drafted in the last 10 year in the top 20 picks that never hit in the NHL.

Finns have always confused me. I always expect multiple Finnish superstars in the league, and it’s always a limited number.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Knut

I think some are a little down on Helenius based on other recent Finish High picks. They seem to be picked high as they are playing in Men's leagues but very few reach their potential.

Heiskanen, Rantanen and Barkov definetly did but you start looking at Lundell, Laine, Puljivarri, Ristolainen, Honka, Juollevi, Valimaki, Vaakanainen, Vesalainen, Kotkaneimi, Thomson, Kaako. Long List of Finnish players drafted in the last 10 year in the top 20 picks that never hit in the NHL.

His production is on the higher end though compared to most of that list.

Granlund: 0.93 PPG
Barkov: 0.91 PPG
Kakko: 0.84 PPG
Laine: 0.72 PPG
Helenius: 0.71 PPG

Those are the only players who put up over 0.7 PPG in the LIIGA as 17 year olds.

Of that list Kakko is the only one that's a red flag to me...Laine should have been a superstar in this league and showed flashes of that...but just didnt' have the dedication to do it.

[Arm Chair Flames Fan]

I'm interested in hearing peoples thoughts on who the Flame would be looking at with their picks after #28

[Royle9]

Helenius just isn’t the pick at 9 for me.
Not saying he’s bad, there’s just too many other high impact draft picks available.
He’s a safe pick and if we were picking 13+ I’d explore it.

Doesn’t excel at anything particular.
Mediocre offence
Good defensive awareness
Mediocre speed
Mediocre shot
Above average vision
Poor showings internationally
Doesn’t pass the eye test in terms of dominance/high end skill

I know some are high on him and that’s fine, but at 9 there’s just way better options.

[Knut]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

His production is on the higher end though compared to most of that list.

Granlund: 0.93 PPG
Barkov: 0.91 PPG
Kakko: 0.84 PPG
Laine: 0.72 PPG
Helenius: 0.71 PPG

Those are the only players who put up over 0.7 PPG in the LIIGA as 17 year olds.

Of that list Kakko is the only one that's a red flag to me...Laine should have been a superstar in this league and showed flashes of that...but just didnt' have the dedication to do it.

Ristolainen, Laine now Lundell all seem to come out the gate with solid first years and then just stagnate. They show up in the NHL more polished but don’t seem to have the trajectory upwards you would expect. They get contracts based on huge growth though.