American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[activeStick]

It feels like people in general are now more willing to face the potential outcome that Trump might actually win it all in November. Feels like only a year or 18 months ago, many were still convinced that Trump had little chance to win, but it's now shifted to he likely will win and we need to either accept it or do everything we damn well can to change this somehow. Personally, i think it's inevitable Trump will win and the US will continue their move out of relevancy except when it comes to military might.

[Reggie Dunlop]

November 5th a major outage of American communication grids.

November 8th, it all comes back up. Trump and Biden are nowhere to be seen. A long table of grim-jawed generals announce a provisional government with new elections at an unspecified date that never comes. Martial Law is in effect.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by GGG

You have a sample size of 2. That is not significant enough to distinguish a real effect from random chance.

More like a sample size of 100. 50 states times 2 elections.

Trump has overperformed the polls far more often than he has underperformed.

Originally Posted by activeStick

It feels like people in general are now more willing to face the potential outcome that Trump might actually win it all in November. Feels like only a year or 18 months ago, many were still convinced that Trump had little chance to win, but it's now shifted to he likely will win and we need to either accept it or do everything we damn well can to change this somehow. Personally, i think it's inevitable Trump will win and the US will continue their move out of relevancy except when it comes to military might.

Trump winning means the end of the modern western world as we know it. I don't know what you mean by "move out of relevancy". The US will become Russia 2.0 and will begin annexing neighboring countries. Welcome to social darwinism and fascism for all eternity, with no hope of ever escaping it.

Trump re-entering the WH would be the worst thing that could possibly happen to humanity aside from maybe nuclear armageddon. There's literally nothing worse that could happen.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by marsplasticeraser

Polls are unreliable 6 months out. Neither campaign has started any of their detailed campaigns, and polls will change, and change unpredictably.

The polls now are simply content for media, podcasters, and content creators.

Polls become very reliable a week or two out. But this is the case of where the analysis is in the hands of intelligent people who are looking on a district by district level.

We are only 5 months out and, while the campaigns will have some effect, that is hardly reassuring when you consider the size of Trump's lead at the moment.

Biden's approval rating has been in steady decline for 18 months, and is now in the 30s. You can't hand wave that away as simply "unreliable polling".

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Trump winning means the end of the modern western world as we know it. I don't know what you mean by "move out of relevancy". The US will become Russia 2.0 and will begin annexing neighboring countries. Welcome to social darwinism and fascism for all eternity, with no hope of ever escaping it.

Trump re-entering the WH would be the worst thing that could possibly happen to humanity aside from maybe nuclear armageddon. There's literally nothing worse that could happen.

That's sort of what I mean. The US will continue to spend on the wrong things (see: Military) in an attempt to retain their spot on top of the world which will prove to ultimately be unsuccessful. Their approach to the rest of the world has been the wrong approach for a long time now - our way or the highway, rules-based law (i.e. things that benefit the US and only the US) instead of international law and their approach to their own country/people has been equally bad - massive funding to their military, not nearly enough to their people in the way of infrastructure, education, welfare, health care. So when I say, "continue their move out of relevancy", I mean, that they've already started to shift out of relevancy on the world stage (except militarily), as countries are moving away from building strong ties with them and rather, maintaining ties as best they can without being targeted by them. They're finding other countries to deal with and other currencies to deal in, for fear that if they ever get on their "bad side", all their assets and money will be frozen and then literally stolen. The bullying is not working anymore and the world is changing.

I'm actually not as concerned as you are about Trump though and definitely don't see such extreme outcomes. I mean, it won't be a good thing, I agree. But it's not the 2nd worst thing that could happen to humanity. We've seen Trump in office before once already.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I might get with Mathgod's obscenely over the top view if Donald Trump weren't Donald Trump. More than likely he'll just golf every day and say outrageous things on social media and that'll be that. Lest we forget the only reason he's running is not to be tyrant, it's to make his legal issues go away (and milk his supporters, of course).

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I might get with Mathgod's obscenely over the top view if Donald Trump weren't Donald Trump. More than likely he'll just golf every day and say outrageous things on social media and that'll be that. Lest we forget the only reason he's running is not to be tyrant, it's to make his legal issues go away (and milk his supporters, of course).

Except for day one... Trump specifically alluded to that if he wins, he's going be a dictator for that first day.

America - get your ####ing #### together; he was the worst president in the history of the free world and is a colossal embarrassment to your country. Hell, the whole conservative movement in the last eight years (including in Alberta) has been a ####ing dangerous deep dive into nutterland.

[Senator Clay Davis]

He alludes to a lot of things that never happen. He is a pathological liar after all. He'll be terrible again, but these apocalyptic views of him winning are designed to be over the top to try and coax people into voting against "the end of the modern Western world".

[afc wimbledon]

The problem isnt Trump per say but the grim evil bastards in his backroom that will use Trump, it is frankly Trump's lazy stupidity that is the danger, he is a violent angry child but there are people behind him that will use that and they aren't stupid nor will they ever give up power

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

He alludes to a lot of things that never happen. He is a pathological liar after all. He'll be terrible again, but these apocalyptic views of him winning are designed to be over the top to try and coax people into voting against "the end of the modern Western world".

This downplaying of a serious situation helps even less.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

He alludes to a lot of things that never happen. He is a pathological liar after all. He'll be terrible again, but these apocalyptic views of him winning are designed to be over the top to try and coax people into voting against "the end of the modern Western world".

I mean, overturning Roe v Wade is a direct result of his appointments to the Supreme Court.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Yeah the thing is even if Trump loses, the GOP has already stacked the deck pretty heavily. Thinking beating Trump ends anything is insanely naive. Afcwimbledon nails it, but it's mostly the people who aren't insane who are to worry about. And if Trump does lose those people will still exist. I guess I just find the urgency of "stop Trump or else!" to be fairly comical. #### is already too far gone, just gotta have it play out now. Where was this urgency years ago when there was actually a chance to do something meaningful?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Yamer

I mean, overturning Roe v Wade is a direct result of his appointments to the Supreme Court.

But whether it was Romney or DeSantis or whoever that would have happened. The GOP and right have stacked the deck for years. Democrats being passive pussies has allowed them to do it, in the name of "decorum" or whatever else helps them feel better about themselves.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But whether it was Romney or DeSantis or whoever that would have happened. The GOP and right have stacked the deck for years. Democrats being passive pussies has allowed them to do it, in the name of "decorum" or whatever else helps them feel better about themselves.

The Democrats getting into the mud doesn't solve the problem. It exacerbates it.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But whether it was Romney or DeSantis or whoever that would have happened. The GOP and right have stacked the deck for years. Democrats being passive pussies has allowed them to do it, in the name of "decorum" or whatever else helps them feel better about themselves.

Those other guys would have actually probably have been happy to overturn RvW, but I doubt Trump cares or even wanted to limit abortions. He's probably annoyed that it is a nuisance for his political life now.

A lot of what you are saying makes sense, but I worry about who will be advising him and such now. He was a career killer to so many people that only truly evil, or the most incompetent dumbasses would be willing to work for him. I imagine his agenda will be to settle a few political scores, reverse a bunch of things Biden did out of spite, and then get bored, and not do too much else.

It's scary to think would happen if there were some true crises. It also sucks for any movement on climate change, and also anyone who isn't a white, straight, male.

I think his economic plans could be his biggest disaster though. He seems desperate to ride the wave of blaming Biden for inflation. The problem is that Trump started that ball rolling, and a lot of the COVID inflation would have been transitory if not for his policies. His answers to inflation are all things that would actually lead to far worse inflation, and that could impact everyone and not just Americans.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

The Democrats getting into the mud doesn't solve the problem. It exacerbates it.

Great, they can stick with trying to "do the right thing" and when the country does finally go off the deep end they can hold their heads high (as they flee the country) with the ability to say "Well, we tried doing it the right way".

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah the thing is even if Trump loses, the GOP has already stacked the deck pretty heavily. Thinking beating Trump ends anything is insanely naive. Afcwimbledon nails it, but it's mostly the people who aren't insane who are to worry about. And if Trump does lose those people will still exist. I guess I just find the urgency of "stop Trump or else!" to be fairly comical. #### is already too far gone, just gotta have it play out now. Where was this urgency years ago when there was actually a chance to do something meaningful?

…. They don’t go away… but Trump does… meaning there is at least hope for a candidate who isn’t as easy to puppet about as Trump is…. This isn’t complicated.

We’re gonna pretend that Trump isn’t unique? Alright…

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

But whether it was Romney or DeSantis or whoever that would have happened. The GOP and right have stacked the deck for years. Democrats being passive pussies has allowed them to do it, in the name of "decorum" or whatever else helps them feel better about themselves.

Would they also have lied to their base about losing the election and riled up a mob to storm the Capitol?

Just because things are bad doesn't mean you should let them get worse.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

…. They don’t go away… but Trump does… meaning there is at least hope for a candidate who isn’t as easy to puppet about as Trump is…. This isn’t complicated.

We’re gonna pretend that Trump isn’t unique? Alright…

Unique as far as his insanity? Sure. Unique as far as his views? Not a chance. His views are the reflection of the GOP base, but unlike other ones he doesn't use codewords, he just says it. But if Trump does lose, and you think DeSantis or whoever running in 2028 won't be running on virtually the exact same platform, I don't know what to tell you. In fact someone running on the same platform who is young and sane would be up 10+ on Biden right now. The only reason this thing is still in doubt is because Trump is so insane. But the platform and views themselves aren't going away even if he loses, and in the hands of someone sane could be implemented with more success.

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

…. They don’t go away… but Trump does… meaning there is at least hope for a candidate who isn’t as easy to puppet about as Trump is…. This isn’t complicated.

We’re gonna pretend that Trump isn’t unique? Alright…

If you don’t realize That Trump is actually the best case scenario for a republican candidate right now I don’t know what to tell you. He is and has always been the symptom not the disease. Replacing him with a politically competent conservative who understands how to use the power that apparently is only held in check by the honour system? That’s the doomsday scenario not Trump 2.0. Look what McConnell did just with the senate. I know politics are team sports now but that doesn’t mean you have to be as blindly loyal to ideologies as the local hockey squad. He’s not McDavid buoying the oilers he’s just the guy at the front of the line right now.