2024 NHL Draft Thread

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

His model also had Honzek being no better than Carolina's 6th round pick, Timur Mukhanov. And it's looking fairly accurate.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1674530894923829248

https://twitter.com/user/status/1674471903682269184

Apples and bananas
His model seems to favor small players.

[saillias]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Bader is doing the benefit of hindsight thing again.

His model liked Honzek more at the time than Musty. It wasn't a mistake at the time.

Perreault maybe a bit of a mistake...but the team did have a lot of small wingers in the system already.

Honzek's season is a write off due to injury, you just have to hope he bounces back with a huge season next year.

Does it matter if he's looking in hindsight?

it's not like an injured prospect is some anomaly the model cannot account for and therefore can be discarded. per his own comment injuries are kind of baked in to the model.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1788234242637578477

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by saillias

Does it matter if he's looking in hindsight?

I don't follow him super closely but if his model had Honzek ahead of the guys he is navel gazing over then it is a bad look. If the model had the other guys ahead of him then it is fair.

[GreenLantern2814]

Maybe we should just not rag on Honzek too much right now.

He’s a big, cerebral, skill player with enough leadership qualities that the Giants named him Captain ahead of last year.

He has been injured, which sucks.

He looks like he protects the puck well, and knows how to manipulate goalies and defenders with his eyes. His game is very patient and poised, and that’s hard to teach. I think his game looks too calm, and throws some people off.

I don’t know if he’s a centre or a winger, but in either case I suspect he’s at worst a top-9 forward for the next 10-12 years.

I don’t believe we have a Jankowski situation - he seems like more of a Pavel Zacha type who plays all three forward positions with around 50-60 points.

Which we do need too.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Fan69

If dickinson or buium is there at the same time demidov is going somewhere else

No chance in hell the Flames draft Dickinson or Buium over Demidov. You are severely underrating Demidov, Conroy would run to the podium to take him.

[Toonage]

Conroy has created a Russian safety net of sorts. Look at all the recent acquisitions. Probably has something in mind.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

No chance in hell the Flames draft Dickinson or Buium over Demidov. You are severely underrating Demidov, Conroy would run to the podium to take him.

Top pairing and number one defencemen always trump wingers. especially when we dont have defenders and centers. Demidov is a talented but ill take the number one defencemen over a winger 10 times out if seven.

Demidov is four in my list

[Monahammer]

I do not get the Dickinson love. He's not on the same level as Buium. More well rounded than Parekh, but i'd easily take parekh toolkit over his too.

He's a high floor low ceiling player IMO. Karl Alzner like.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Oh, and there's no scenario outside of Demidov saying he wouldn't play for the Flames where I'd take anyone over Demidov, that's dumb. Maybe the dumbest argument going on in here.

https://twitter.com/Antho_Martineau/...rgo-surgery%2F

INFO:

Ivan Demidov is recovering well from his knee injury suffered in the MHL final.

He won't need surgery.

He is expected to return to full fitness before the draft and will therefore be able to train without restrictions for the upcoming season.

Based on that update there is no reason he should drop below the Hawks pick. As they could use him more than a defenseman in their rebuild.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Fan69

Top pairing and number one defencemen always trump wingers. especially when we dont have defenders and centers. Demidov is a talented but ill take the number one defencemen over a winger 10 times out if seven.

Demidov is four in my list

Really? So you would take Seth Jones over Nikita Kucherov if they were the same age? If Demidov was a centre there would be a serious debate over who goes #1, that's how talented he is.

[Icon]

Originally Posted by dammage79

If they did their due diligence, shouldn't be an issue, his Brother signed in MTL, no reason to suspect he wouldn't sign in CGY as a pick.

I'm sure picking a USNDP player or NCAA probably has a higher risk assessment value than the Russian factor these days, but these can be conversed about prior to picking a player.

Oh agreed, was just saying there's potential USNDP picks still after our first pick.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Really? So you would take Seth Jones over Nikita Kucherov if they were the same age? If Demidov was a centre there would be a serious debate over who goes #1, that's how talented he is.

Kucherov went late in the 2nd round, though. Same (probably better) skill, and even better showings on international stage, but the political situation and his size scared people off.

Whereas Seth Jones went 4th overall... Probably would have went higher in the 2011 draft where Kucherov was selected. RNH was 1st overall in that draft, and Adam Larsson was the 1st dman off the board, at 4th.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Kucherov went late in the 2nd round, though. Same (probably better) skill, and even better showings on international stage, but the political situation and his size scared people off.

Whereas Seth Jones went 4th overall... Probably would have went higher in the 2011 draft where Kucherov was selected. RNH was 1st overall in that draft, and Adam Larsson was the 1st dman off the board, at 4th.

Ya that's fair for sure, I was just saying there are different levels of top pairing D men and wingers and I am not convinced any of this D class will be as impactful or as dynamic as Demidov. I could be wrong though.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Martin Jones - worth the #29 pick and a former 5th round pick who has played nearly 500 games in the NHL

Can Talbot being worth a 2nd and a 3rd after 57 NHL games

varlamov being worth 11th overall and 54th overall

lehner being worth the 21st overall

Kuemper being worth a future 1st, a 3rd and a former 32nd overall pick

34 year old Ryan Miller and 3/4th liner Steve Ott traded for #25, #89 and #57 from the year before and two roster players (Chris Stewart and jarolav halak)

The one and only Brian Elliott was traded for #35 overall and a conditional third.

Given that virtually every single goaltender trade for a starter has been worth more than #35 one would have to think that Markstrom is worth more than #35.

Based on those recent return, it really isn't that far out of the realm of possibility to package Markstrom retained plus the Canucks pick for the 10th.

I would probably circle Kuemper or Miller as a probably the closest value. Just the value of the picks for 28,29,30, 60, 100 has a value of 40.6 according to PuckPedia. Value for the 10th pick is 34.2.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

https://twitter.com/user/status/1674530894923829248

Wat? Honzek was anything but a "safe" pick. He was player who missed a lot of his draft year because he was injured. They were betting that he had untapped potential and he was flying under the radar. That is not looking like a good gamble so far because he again missed significant time with injuries and likely wasn't 100% even when he was playing. I get not liking the pick for reasons that are fair, but calling it a safe pick at the time is wrong. It was not the safe pick to be making. If anything, the other guys people are lamenting over would have been safer picks.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Really? So you would take Seth Jones over Nikita Kucherov if they were the same age? If Demidov was a centre there would be a serious debate over who goes #1, that's how talented he is.

Just one problem he isnt? He is a winger ? Kucherov? More like marner to me? A guy you add when all the other pieces are in place. Same as eiserman.

And if were in hypothetical scenarios add 2 inches and twenty pounds to catton he goes second no question. He has better numbers than point and crysaddle.

Have we not learned about trying to build around winger when top line defenders and centers are available?

Not to mention demidov falling to nine is an unlikely scenario.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I do not get the Dickinson love. He's not on the same level as Buium. More well rounded than Parekh, but i'd easily take parekh toolkit over his too.

He's a high floor low ceiling player IMO. Karl Alzner like.

I remember hearing the same thing about Noah Dobson.

He's a high floor, high potential player. That's the appeal. He has all the makings of a top pairing defender.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I do not get the Dickinson love. He's not on the same level as Buium. More well rounded than Parekh, but i'd easily take parekh toolkit over his too.

He's a high floor low ceiling player IMO. Karl Alzner like.

Dickinson is really smooth.

Great first pass.

Cannon for a shot. He can take end to end, he can defend, he’s going to fill out to probably 220 lbs.

He’s way more Dougie Hamilton than Karl Alzner.

Won’t be sad if we end up with him, but wouldn’t take him over Iginla.

[Monahammer]

I like that you busted out the Dougie Hamilton comparison, their numbers are pretty similar. Dougie's a little bit bigger. But I can accept that a team sees that type of upside in Dickinson. I don't, but I accept that argument.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

Dickinson is really smooth.

Great first pass.

Cannon for a shot. He can take end to end, he can defend, he’s going to fill out to probably 220 lbs.

He’s way more Dougie Hamilton than Karl Alzner.

Won’t be sad if we end up with him, but wouldn’t take him over Iginla.

During the draft lottery show I think they mentioned that Dickinson hasn't taken a penalty and plays 20+ a game. That kind of gives me Lidstrom vibes where he is always putting himself in the right place. Doesn't need to reach or get into trouble often. I would be happy with him.