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Old 05-08-2024, 11:29 AM   #2901
SuperMatt18
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The 2 teams in the top 16 that I could see moving their first would be Buffalo (they have enough prospects, they need an impact player that can help now) and Detroit (seem to be at that stage where they want to take a step and push some chips in).
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Old 05-08-2024, 11:30 AM   #2902
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For NJ, they have the same risk. I don't think Fiztgerald can afford to go through another season hoping to land a goalie. He has to be on thin ice wasting last year. Yes he can go to the market after the draft, but there is no guarantee he is going to walk away with a goalie. In this scenario, he walks away from the draft with his goalie and doesn't have to contend with the others teams.

The other scenario, is that he is more likely to bend and give Mercer with a player picked up with that 10th pick.
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Old 05-08-2024, 11:34 AM   #2903
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I have heard some people compare him to Barkov

After watching video he seems more like Sebastian Aho. Tenacious forechecking combined with excellent skating and IQ. It's true that he is a playmaker first and foremost but his shot isn't bad. Barkov is a lot bigger but also was a really poor skater when he entered the league. Also he initially refused to shoot the puck which doesn't seem to be the case with Helenius.

If this guy goes around 10th OA I have a feeling he could be one of the steals of the draft, similarly to Rantanen when he was picked 10th OA. Seems like a high ceiling type of player.
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Old 05-08-2024, 11:34 AM   #2904
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With the Flames staying put at 9th after the draft lottery the stars are really aligning for them to take Tij. The only question remaining is will he make it to 9th? I think there’s a very real chance he goes anywhere from 5-9.

From the Flames perspective, you ignore his last name and he still looks like an amazing prospect. One of the youngest players in the draft, has taken big strides every season, and very well rounded.

As an Iginla, you know he has been around professionals his whole life and obviously comes from good bloodlines. His situation reminds me a bit of the Tkachuk brothers. Scouts really picked apart parts of their game, but they were both instantly very good NHL players, no doubt partly because of how they grew up.

I get that the Flames really need to build up their center and defense prospects, but this is basically the very start of the rebuild. They need help everywhere.

I say don’t reach for position and if Tij is there then take him. The reality is the Flames will likely be in the lottery mix for the next 3-4 seasons and will have plenty of cracks and top center and defense prospects.

Who knows, maybe they get some luck and walk away with one of Hagens/Mckenna.
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Old 05-08-2024, 11:49 AM   #2905
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Ran two mocks today post lottery.

FC Hockey mock draft tool: https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/

9th: Zeev Buium (I picked him over Iginla)
29th: Michael Hage
41: Cole Hutson
64: Carson Wetsch
74: Justin Poirier
84: Harrison Brunicke
106: Ilya Nabokov
107: Julius Miettinen
170: Pierre-etienne Cloutier

Notes:FC seems to have improved their randomness factor recently instead of more dogmatically following the rankings list. However, I think some of their rankings seem way out of whack from other lists. Hage probably not going to go that low. They also have Tij in the 20s. I also think Hutson is probably not available by our 2nd rounder. Julius Miettinen is curiously low as well, though I've noticed that's universal. Brandsegg-Nygard always goes super high when I use this tool.
You can switch between FC's list and the consensus list (has Hage and Tij higher)... still more random then I think is likely (I end up being able to select Demidov and/or Levshunov with an odd amount of frequency, neither of which I think is remotely plausible... generally it involves some team taking one or more of Brandsegg-Nygard/Connelly/Greentree inside the top 10).
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Old 05-08-2024, 12:36 PM   #2906
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I don't think it's crazy that Demidov falls abit. I feel like Mitchkov was more highly regarding and he dropped to 7th. There's a huge risk given the geopolitics.

But for the most part I agree it's a little too random.

I got demidov at #9 and hage at #29.
That would be insane.
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Old 05-08-2024, 12:39 PM   #2907
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I don't think it's crazy that Demidov falls abit. I feel like Mitchkov was more highly regarding and he dropped to 7th. There's a huge risk given the geopolitics.
Yeah wouldn't be surprised at all.

Though I just did one of the mock drafts on that site with randomness cranked up and he fell to 14... doubt he drops that far, lol.
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Old 05-08-2024, 12:57 PM   #2908
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I don't think it's crazy that Demidov falls abit. I feel like Mitchkov was more highly regarding and he dropped to 7th. There's a huge risk given the geopolitics.

But for the most part I agree it's a little too random.

I got demidov at #9 and hage at #29.
That would be insane.
Deeper draft though. And Mitchkov was already signed for a few years in Russia - much bigger risk factor.
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Old 05-08-2024, 01:21 PM   #2909
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https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/ottawa-senato...r-26-1.2116906

The Ottawa Senators will keep the seventh overall pick in this year's draft, leaving the team to forfeit their first-round pick in either 2025 or 2026 as a result of league punishment.
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Old 05-08-2024, 01:22 PM   #2910
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Makes sense. Bet on yourself being much better over the next 2 years.
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Old 05-08-2024, 01:26 PM   #2911
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Deeper draft though. And Mitchkov was already signed for a few years in Russia - much bigger risk factor.
Also, I think I read something about Demidov hoping to get out of his KHL contract to get to the NHL sooner. Not sure if that’s true though.
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Old 05-08-2024, 02:01 PM   #2912
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This reminds me of when Ottawa kept the 10th pick, to draft Tyler Boucher (lol) and then gave up the 7th overall next year.
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Old 05-08-2024, 03:40 PM   #2913
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Originally Posted by traptor View Post
I don't think it's crazy that Demidov falls abit. I feel like Mitchkov was more highly regarding and he dropped to 7th. There's a huge risk given the geopolitics.

But for the most part I agree it's a little too random.

I got demidov at #9 and hage at #29.
That would be insane.
That would be a dream come true. I don't see either of those players falling that far though. If Demidov slides though that is good for the crowd that is hoping for Iginla because no chance Montreal doesn't make that pick at 5 for him.
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:04 PM   #2914
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Holy... we're in luck, guys. I just used that FC Hockey mock draft tool with consensus rankings...

Spoiler!
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:08 PM   #2915
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Holy... we're in luck, guys. I just used that FC Hockey mock draft tool with consensus rankings...

Spoiler!
How drunk would Kyle Davidson have to be lol?
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:12 PM   #2916
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How drunk would Kyle Davidson have to be lol?
No kidding lol.
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:18 PM   #2917
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Holy... we're in luck, guys. I just used that FC Hockey mock draft tool with consensus rankings...
They really have a weird obsession with Connelly. Picked in the top 8 nearly every time I run it and when he's not taken, someone takes Brandsegg.
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:19 PM   #2918
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Good point. I guess if they trade their 2024 first round pick, it means they have their 2025 first round pick to trade at the trade deadline. Would this be a fair trade for New Jersey and Calgary:

To New Jersey:
Markstrom (50% retained)
Vancouver’s 2024 1st round pick (likely 29th/30th overall)
Calgary’s 2024 2nd round pick (41st overall)

To Calgary:
New Jersey’s 2024 1st round pick (10th overall)
Calgary is giving up way too much in that deal,there is no need for that 2nd
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:29 PM   #2919
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This reminds me of when Ottawa kept the 10th pick, to draft Tyler Boucher (lol) and then gave up the 7th overall next year.

How were the two related? The Senators traded their 1st round pick in 2022 hours before the draft in the DeBrincat trade. It had nothing to do with Boucher in 2021, who was an absolutely terrible pick. But he was already picked a year prior when they traded the 2022 pick.


Ottawa had the option to defer the pick to 2019 if they had a top-10 pick in 2018. They kept 2018 and drafted Tkachuk, and it was the 2019 pick which went to Colorado.



The Sens gave up a 1st round pick in the Duchene trade that turned out to be 4th overall, which Colorado used to draft Byram. But then they got a 1st from San Jose in the Karlsson trade, which turned into 3rd overall, and they took Stutzle.
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Old 05-08-2024, 04:35 PM   #2920
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I also have to wonder how much Fitz wants to blow more assets on a goalie after having spent assets on 2 goalies at the deadline this past season. It wouldn't be a good look to basically admit that those other trades were completely pointless. I think they'd trade for Markstrom if the cost was low, but I doubt they want to give up their current draft position for him. I would bet that ship has sailed.
I think this is the narrative that will be coming from Fitz, and it may work. I don't think they want to give up the pick, but i really wonder how much Fitz wants to risk going into the new season with goaltending uncertainty. If Connie is smart, he uses his leverage to wait this out. At the end of the day, fitz needs a goaltender, Calgary does not need to trade one, use your leverage Connie!
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