2024 Off-season trade rumours and speculation thread

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Again, my thought is Marner would be willing to extend.

12-13M? Maybe. Seems like the same people who are saying Marner isn’t worth a top pairing D, 34 year old G, and the 28-32 pick in a not so deep draft are the ones also saying Marner’s going to be among the highest paid wingers in the league. These points seem to be at odds with one another.

Not really. How many pending UFA's who are going to make big money get the equivalent value of 3 1st round picks + in return? Hell, even with an extension he isn't worth that. It's Mitch Marner, not Connor McDavid.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I don’t think a contender is the likely landing spot for Marner. Are there any who have the cap space or assets to add a player like Marner without sending a comparable player back?

I think he’s more likely to land on a team that’s making a push to become a playoff team, or a contender. But not a team that already is.

That's why I could see Chicago. They are going to start trying to contend in the coming years, and have tons of cap space. Marner would really push them along in that regard, and more importantly with Chicago being a great city, team that will contend and quick flight to Toronto, I could see Marner actually waiving for there.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I don’t think a contender is the likely landing spot for Marner. Are there any who have the cap space or assets to add a player like Marner without sending a comparable player back?

I think he’s more likely to land on a team that’s making a push to become a playoff team, or a contender. But not a team that already is.

Why’d Marner waive for a team that isn’t a contender? This is why UFAs always return less than fans think. I was saying the same about Calgary’s UFAs when people here were expecting top prospects or young players from teams. It will be a hockey trade or they will keep him.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Again, my thought is Marner would be willing to extend.

12-13M? Maybe. Seems like the same people who are saying Marner isn’t worth a top pairing D, 34 year old G, and the 28-32 pick in a not so deep draft are the ones also saying Marner’s going to be among the highest paid wingers in the league. These points seem to be at odds with one another.

Those points aren't at odds with each other, you're just oversimplifying the trade idea to "big player = any big trade package". Marner will go for a lot if he's the player traded, but that doesn't mean suggesting he's not worth the equivalent of three firsts is at odds with agreeing he's worth a lot.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Why’d Marner waive for a team that isn’t a contender?

…get out of Toronto? Plus a team like Utah looks like is positioned very well to be a contender in the next year or two and probably for a while.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by TOfan

I don’t think a contender is the likely landing spot for Marner. Are there any who have the cap space or assets to add a player like Marner without sending a comparable player back?

I think he’s more likely to land on a team that’s making a push to become a playoff team, or a contender. But not a team that already is.

So Marner waives his NMC to go to Anaheim or some other non-contender? Why? On the 12-13 million my point is that that is what Marner thinks he is worth. So the Leafs need to find a team that thinks he is worth that, wants to pay that and wants to give up a huge package to get him. Some team for sure will probably give Marner what he wants on the free market. Even if that is not the case, Marner and his team will think someone will give him that so he ain’t going to sign a team friendly deal. Not sure they dump a bunch of assets to get him at that cost point.

I don’t know if he is available but the market would be much stronger in my opinion for Scheifele than it would be for Marner. A consistent 70+ point guy who is signed for 8.5 million a year. The market for a guy you have to sign to a top 10 in the league contract that will give you a haul would be quite small. Add in the fact that what could keep Marner from getting the dollar figure he wants are questions about him in the playoffs I would be shocked if he agrees to go to a team that is not a contender.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Not really. How many pending UFA's who are going to make big money get the equivalent value of 3 1st round picks + in return? Hell, even with an extension he isn't worth that. It's Mitch Marner, not Connor McDavid.

For the fourth time now, I’m suggesting Marner would resign. So we can debate the semantics of what ‘pending UFA’ would be but so long as Marner extends, effectively, he’s not.

One could argue the Flames got the equivalent of two first round picks + for Elias Lindolm. You could also argue the Flames got the equivalent of three first round picks + for Tkachuk.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Fixed.

He’s not. Can you find a single example of a trade where a UFA returned a top pairing right handed D with term on a good contract, a starting goalie, and a 1st?

I actually think Andersson and Marner are about a wash in value given position, contracts, and Marners NMC. Andersson can be traded to any team before July 1st and after that he only has a 6 team no trade list. If Marner had term and limited control then he’d be worth a lot more but he doesn’t.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

So Marner waives his NMC to go to Anaheim or some other non-contender? Why? On the 12-13 million my point is that that is what Marner thinks he is worth. So the Leafs need to find a team that thinks he is worth that, wants to pay that and wants to give up a huge package to get him. Some team for sure will probably give Marner what he wants on the free market. Even if that is not the case, Marner and his team will think someone will give him that so he ain’t going to sign a team friendly deal. Not sure they dump a bunch of assets to get him at that cost point.

I don’t know if he is available but the market would be much stronger in my opinion for Scheifele than it would be for Marner. A consistent 70+ point guy who is signed for 8.5 million a year. The market for a guy you have to sign to a top 10 in the league contract that will give you a haul would be quite small. Add in the fact that what could keep Marner from getting the dollar figure he wants are questions about him in the playoffs I would be shocked if he agrees to go to a team that is not a contender.

So given all that you’ve laid out, which contender is there a fit?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

For the fourth time now, I’m suggesting Marner would resign. So we can debate the semantics of what ‘pending UFA’ would be but so long as Marner extends, effectively, he’s not.

One could argue the Flames got the equivalent of two first round picks + for Elias Lindolm. You could also argue the Flames got the equivalent of three first round picks + for Tkachuk.

A UFA signing an extension doesn’t increase value as much as you think it does. If he was an RFA then different story.
Tkachuk was a hockey trade. If the Leafs want to get older but good players back in a hockey trade then I think that is totally viable.

[the-rasta-masta]

Only way I'd consider Marner would be if we win the draft lottery and get Celebrini.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Why’d Marner waive for a team that isn’t a contender? This is why UFAs always return less than fans think. I was saying the same about Calgary’s UFAs when people here were expecting top prospects or young players from teams. It will be a hockey trade or they will keep him.

Because Chicago will be a contender during the life of that contract, and with adding players like Marner, it will be quicker than you think.

Although I doubt Chicago wants to give up draft picks for Marner, they'd rather wait for UFA. Their pick next year could still be very high depending on what they do. Unlike San Jose, Chicago did show some improvement over the season.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Because Chicago will be a contender during the life of that contract, and with adding players like Marner, it will be quicker than you think.

Although I doubt Chicago wants to give up draft picks for Marner, they'd rather wait for UFA. Their pick next year could still be very high depending on what they do. Unlike San Jose, Chicago did show some improvement over the season.

Chicago might be a contender. Look at the Oilers as a prime example of a team with a generational player screwing it up consistently. My guess is that Marner’s list looks pretty similar to last 2 years of prime UFAs.

I also can’t see Chicago trading good futures for the privilege of signing a 27 year old to a massive contract when they aren’t even done their rebuild.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Bonded

He’s not. Can you find a single example of a trade where a UFA returned a top pairing right handed D with term on a good contract, a starting goalie, and a 1st?

I actually think Andersson and Marner are about a wash in value given position, contracts, and Marners NMC. Andersson can be traded to any team before July 1st and after that he only has a 6 team no trade list. If Marner had term and limited control then he’d be worth a lot more but he doesn’t.

Every single trade ever made in the NHL is different. So, no, I can’t find a single example where a UFA returned a top pairing RHS D with 2 years left (not that much term btw), who was born in Malmo, whose dad is a coach, who was once called a little bit fat and lazy, who was drafted in the second round, who weighs 214 lbs according to Wikipedia. A starting goalie and a 1st.

Who would have predicted the return on Tkachuk or Lindhom?

Rightly or wrongly if you went to a Leafs fan forum and said you wouldn’t trade Anderson for Marner, you’d likely take considerable heat for that take. Oh, but wait, fans of other teams, specifically the Leafs are dumb and Flames fans are smart.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by TOfan

So given all that you’ve laid out, which contender is there a fit?

I don’t think there is one. It has to be a contender that is willing to have an 11 million dollar winger. Now if the Leafs eat 30-50% there could be a bigger market for sure, but you go through the teams left in terms of cap space alone (putting aside whether any of them would want Marner)

Boston - 21 million in cap space and need to sign 8 players. Players to sign who would be higher priority than Marner include - Swayman and possibly DeBrusk. Maybe they have the room, not sure Marner is a Montgomery player.

Carolina - 27.3 million in cap space and need to sign 9 players. Higher priority players include Necas, Guentzel, Skjei, Chatfield, terravainan. Not likely a fit.

Colorado - need to sign 10 players and have 10 million in space. Not a fit.

Dallas - need to sign 10 players and have 15 million in cap space, not a fit.

Edmonton - need to sign 10 players and have 9 million. Not a fit.

Florida - need to sign 9 more players and have 19.7 million in space. Higher priority players to sign include Reinhart, Montour. Not a fit.

nYR - 5 players to sign and 10.5 million in space. Higher priorities include Schneider, Lindgren and Kakko. Not a fit.

Vancouver - 9 players to sign and 24.8 million. Higher priorities would include Hronek (and at least 2 other dmen), and maybe Lindholm. Probably not a fit.

Vegas - 3 players to sign and 900K to do it with. Not a fit.

The best fit for Marner is Toronto probably.

I would ask what contender is looking for a 10.9 million dollar Marner to put them over the top?

[flambers]

How about Detroit? They have a bunch of UFAs coming off the payroll

They are clearly trying to add, to take the next step

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Every single trade ever made in the NHL is different. So, no, I can’t find a single example where a UFA returned a top pairing RHS D with 2 years left (not that much term btw), who was born in Malmo, whose dad is a coach, who was once called a little bit fat and lazy, who was drafted in the second round, who weighs 214 lbs according to Wikipedia. A starting goalie and a 1st.

Who would have predicted the return on Tkachuk or Lindhom?

Rightly or wrongly if you went to a Leafs fan forum and said you wouldn’t trade Anderson for Marner, you’d likely take considerable heat for that take. Oh, but wait, fans of other teams, specifically the Leafs are dumb and Flames fans are smart.

lol extra deflecting details aside you can’t because you know it’s a trade tilted hard towards the Leafs.
Lindholm went for about what was expected a late 1st, a cap dump, and a prospect. Question is really did Vancouver screw up the cap dump.
Tkachuk was an RFA.
Never said Leafs fans are dumb but fans always overestimate what UFAs will return. It happened for basically every UFA the Flames traded this year on this very forum. People were expecting top prospects for Hanifin and Tanev going into the deadline.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I don’t think there is one. It has to be a contender that is willing to have an 11 million dollar winger. Now if the Leafs eat 30-50% there could be a bigger market for sure, but you go through the teams left in terms of cap space alone (putting aside whether any of them would want Marner)

Boston - 21 million in cap space and need to sign 8 players. Players to sign who would be higher priority than Marner include - Swayman and possibly DeBrusk. Maybe they have the room, not sure Marner is a Montgomery player.

Carolina - 27.3 million in cap space and need to sign 9 players. Higher priority players include Necas, Guentzel, Skjei, Chatfield, terravainan. Not likely a fit.

Colorado - need to sign 10 players and have 10 million in space. Not a fit.

Dallas - need to sign 10 players and have 15 million in cap space, not a fit.

Edmonton - need to sign 10 players and have 9 million. Not a fit.

Florida - need to sign 9 more players and have 19.7 million in space. Higher priority players to sign include Reinhart, Montour. Not a fit.

nYR - 5 players to sign and 10.5 million in space. Higher priorities include Schneider, Lindgren and Kakko. Not a fit.

Vancouver - 9 players to sign and 24.8 million. Higher priorities would include Hronek (and at least 2 other dmen), and maybe Lindholm. Probably not a fit.

Vegas - 3 players to sign and 900K to do it with. Not a fit.

The best fit for Marner is Toronto probably.

I would ask what contender is looking for a 10.9 million dollar Marner to put them over the top?

And there you have it.

That’s why I think it’s more likely Marner lands on a team that is on the upswing. I’d be pretty surprised if Utah isn’t aggressive this offseason. They have plenty of young talent, which Marner would compliment having just turned 27, and what appears to be an owner who looks like he would want to make a splash.

Now, I don’t think they have what I assume the Leafs would be looking for (D and a goalie that can help them now). That’s where the Flames come in as the third party.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by TOfan

For the fourth time now, I’m suggesting Marner would resign. So we can debate the semantics of what ‘pending UFA’ would be but so long as Marner extends, effectively, he’s not.

One could argue the Flames got the equivalent of two first round picks + for Elias Lindolm. You could also argue the Flames got the equivalent of three first round picks + for Tkachuk.

If he was guaranteed to sign he is still not worth the equivalent of 3 1sts +. That is a ridiculous amount to pay. Given what their value is look at it this way, would you rather have the 7th, the 15, and another late pick in the first round and let's say Alexander Holtz or an extended Mitch Marner? This isn't close.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Chicago might be a contender. Look at the Oilers as a prime example of a team with a generational player screwing it up consistently. My guess is that Marner’s list looks pretty similar to last 2 years of prime UFAs.

I also can’t see Chicago trading good futures for the privilege of signing a 27 year old to a massive contract when they aren’t even done their rebuild.

Oh I agree I don’t see Chicago paying that price, as they seem to be doing the rebuild slowly, and not make the same mistakes as teams like the Oilers have done.

Yet the Oilers are considered a contender notwithstanding how poorly they have managed things.

Who even knows if Marner will waive anywhere. He might just want to stay in Toronto and test UFA.