Craig Conroy and "The Dallas Model"

[Vinny01]

The Dallas model is so rare and requires multiple picks to pan out in a much better than drafted position. They had the home run draft of 2017 and then appeared to absolutely nail it with Johnston, and Stankoven which helps this team look poised to continue to contend for the foreseeable future.

The Flamea have been a strong drafting team finding great players in later rounds over the past 15 years. They will need that luck to continue but when Conroy said Dallas model he was telling the fans there is no plans for a tear down rebuild.

They are on the hunt for more trades like the one that brought Hamilton to the flames 9 years ago

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Edmonton are just completely stupid and had no idea how to pick players or build around good players that they did pick. 90% of management groups in the NHL would have built a perineal contender around McDavid, but it's Edmoton, they figured just pick up Adam Larsson and you're good to go.

I think 90 percent of management groups would have tried to build a perennial contender

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by flambers

I guess the other question is does the full rebuild actually work?

Teams go this path, and some have very limited success.

The Hawks and Penguins a decade ago won multiple cups based on full rebuilds. The Avalanche drafted Duchesne 3rd overal, Landeskog 2nd overall, MacKinnon 1st overall, Makar 4th overall, Rantanen 9th overall. Lightning needed Stamkos 1st overall, Hedman 2nd overall, Druin 3rd overall (traded for Sergachev). As you can see there's a correlation between multiple cup winner and top 5 picks. Not all these teams rebuilt via the same manner but they all had enough terrible seasons to pick high enough to attain franchise players. The Leafs and Oilers probably won't win the cup but they are in the conversation and they bottomed out to get where they are today. Even the Canucks roster is build mostly of some quality top 10 picks due to them being bad for a long stretch. The Stars are the rare organization that's been able to build without top 10 picks and what they have done isn't likely sustainable or repeatable.

[flambers]

Sure, also examples such as Sabres, Senators,

[Cowboy89]

There isn't a 'Dallas Model.' Since Murray Edwards won't allow a real rebuild they just looked at teams that are currently competitive at the top of the league that didn't execute a full rebuild and said we're following the 'x-city' model. There only really is Dallas and one can't really point to them as an example of that being planned out that way enough to model your own team's approach after it.

This team is missing high end top 20 in the league caliber players. They are only able to be acquired by repeatedly picking in the top 5-10 in the draft, getting extremely lucky at the draft table, or trading for late bloomers/undervalued players that evolve into those kinds of players. If you look at the top end of players the vast majority are high draft picks. So if you refuse to bottom out in an actual rebuild Conroy will be relying magic beans at the draft and/or continuing to trade r$%e other GMs which are both the rarest methods of acquiring top end talent. Call me unimpressed.

I can see this potentially getting us back into the playoffs, but cannot see how this will bring us any closer to a Stanley Cup. Maybe that's by design from Murray!

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by flambers

Sure, also examples such as Sabres, Senators,

Senators are a poor example as they tried to fast forward the rebuild and they actually have underachieved this season. Sabres are the typical organization people use as an example of why rebuilding doesn't always work but they are really the outlier. Teams still have to get the picks right in the rebuild but it's been proven when you make the right picks you can build a true cup contender.

[Royle9]

Let’s be honest, Buffalos rebuild would have been over had they won the McBaby lottery like they should have but instead fell out of 1st and got Eichel. Who of course then wanted out after mismanagement.

That’s the golden outlier for Buffalo and the only reason the Oilers turned theirs around.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by flambers

Sure, also examples such as Sabres, Senators,

Just because some rebuilds fail, doesn’t men they are a bad idea.

They are really the only option when teams fall to the bottom of the league and don’t have a true core.

If the first one fails, you simply need to try again.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Just because some rebuilds fail, doesn’t men they are a bad idea.

They are really the only option when teams fall to the bottom of the league and don’t have a true core.

If the first one fails, you simply need to try again.

Not sure, ownership would ever go with that type of strategy could be 10 + years

[Jason14h]

All the Flames need to be is smarter then every other team in the NHL and better at drafting and we can turn this around without picking top 3 multiple times.

Whew - I was worried for a second. Clearly with our decades of success and amazing 1st round picks becoming superstars we will have no problem out thinking and drafting the rest of the NHL

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

All the Flames need to be is smarter then every other team in the NHL and better at drafting and we can turn this around without picking top 3 multiple times.

Whew - I was worried for a second. Clearly with our decades of success and amazing 1st round picks becoming superstars we will have no problem out thinking and drafting the rest of the NHL

2nd best drafting team according to a third party.
Give this scouting team more picks and they may be able to do some pretty cool things.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

2nd best drafting team according to a third party.
Give this scouting team more picks and they may be able to do some pretty cool things.

But that kind of is BS - It's 'best' at drafting from where they pick and number of picks. Every week at least once you have to let everyone know according to one third party they are the best at drafting using that sites method. Wohoo. We are good at getting better second through 7th round players on average then the league.

They have hit on some nice support players in later rounds (their 1st round pick have mostly been meh so far) But since they trade a lot of picks, a few late round support player skew the overall ranking

Is it nice the Flames find some support players in the later rounds. Of course. However, the team hasn't drafted a true impact player since MT (Which was a 6th overall higher then we have drafted since)

The Flames aren't finding superstars in the draft recently (Its really hard late in the 1st / later rounds)

We are hoping other teams miss on players and the Flames can identify them. I for one thinking betting on the Flames to be smarter then every other organization is a worse bet then draft the best players because your team sucks and sucking gets the picks that guarantee the best players are available

[Jiri Hrdina]

Just discussing man. No need to be a dick.

As I said before, The Flames should acknowledge they operate under systematic disadvantages so therefore they will have to outperform in other areas. So they should set a goal to be the best drafting team in the NHL. They may or may not be the best, but to compete long-term, they probably need to be in the top 10% and they should invest accordingly.

I'm not advocating for a short re-build. And I agree high picks are required for any successful re-build. But they will also need to outperform other NHL teams when it comes to scouting to make this successful.

And based on data, they may already have some advantages there to build on.

That's my point.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Just discussing man. No need to be a dick.

As I said before, The Flames should acknowledge they operate under systematic disadvantages so therefore they will have to outperform in other areas. So they should set a goal to be the best drafting team in the NHL. They may or may not be the best, but to compete long-term, they probably need to be in the top 10% and they should invest accordingly.

I'm not advocating for a short re-build. And I agree high picks are required for any successful re-build. But they will also need to outperform other NHL teams when it comes to scouting to make this successful.

And based on data, they may already have some advantages there to build on.

That's my point.

Not trying to be a dick - But at least once a week you ensure you post as a rebuttle "Flames are the best drafting team" because you read a list that you liked based on one sites criteria.

I look at the Flames drafting in the past 10 years and think "meh" at best

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Not trying to be a dick - But at least once a week you ensure you post as a rebuttle "Flames are the best drafting team" because you read a list that you liked based on one sites criteria.

I look at the Flames drafting in the past 10 years and think "meh" at best

OK and what's wrong with posting counter arguments?

That report has value because it's objective and based on data. As opposed to you "looking at the draft and thinking meh".

Folks are welcome to counter with alternative data points.
But basically you trust your subjective opinion over an actual piece of analysis. Which you can do. I'll go with data.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

OK and what's wrong with posting counter arguments?

That report has value because it's objective and based on data. As opposed to you "looking at the draft and thinking meh".

Folks are welcome to counter with alternative data points.
But basically you trust your subjective opinion over an actual piece of analysis. Which you can do. I'll go with data.

The 'problem' with the Athletics article is while is summarizes that the Flames are the 2nd best drafting team, when they break it down it actually shows they are more "meh" then great if you arent including Adam Fox - A player who fell in the draft because people know he wouldn't sign

So if we remove a player who never had any intention of playing for the Flames and was drafting lower because other teams knew it was a possiblity he would be hard to sign, here is what they are left with - From the article you like to use to reinforced "2nd best drafting team"

Calgary’s picks outside of the first round include Johnny Gaudreau, Adam Fox, Rasmus Andersson, T.J. Brodie, Andrew Mangiapane, Dillon Dube, Adam Ruzicka and Oliver Kylington among others. Couple that mid-round success with landing a superstar like Matthew Tkachuk at No. 6 in 2016 and you have an impressive pool of talent for a team that lacked a high volume of picks. It’s too bad that many of the best players here are no longer on the team.

They are now going back to TJ Fricken Brodie? That was 2008!! And even Brodie was at best a 2nd pairing D. Look at the other players. Outside JG its a bunch of.... Meh. Rasmus Andersson is a nice piece, if hes your 3rd or 4th best D.

According the the article - They are 25th best in drafting in the 1st round, 16th best in the 2nd round, but 3rd best in the "mid rounds" - And almost entirely driven by a player who didnt have any chance of actually playing for them and JG.

It also is only using players up to 2018. I get the last 5 years hasnt played out , but when MT is giving a lot of the wins above replacement Im dont think the statistical relevancy is there. That was 8!! years ago

To you does that actually sound like the 2nd best drafting team, and a team capable of finding late 1st and 2nd round gems/stars better then other teams? It actually shows the opposite. They are very bad at drafting when it matters

[cam_calderon]

If the scouting is so good, why are we still without a run to the finals for two decades?

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by flambers

Sure, also examples such as Sabres, Senators,

Bad examples, like was discussed a couple pages ago you have teams that rebuild and then do what it necessary to take that step to contenders, and then you have mismanaged/financial issue teams.

Including Ottawa and Buffalo as a warning sign to the Flames that you can rebuild and still suck a decade later isn't relevant, imo. Two organizations that went through ownership/financial issues and wouldn't spend anywhere near the cap when they should have been taking the next step.

Remember Melnyk? Fans wanted to revolt against him because he wouldn't allow the GM to spend money and make their team better. And they STILL made the conference finals in 2017 despite that.

[jayswin]

Well I agree with JiriHrdina, our scouting and drafting does look very good when they're picking. I feel they would have unearthed a couple more gems and some other solid players if Brad Treliving didn't keep putting his hand in the cookie jar every time he saw a depth defenseman or checking forward he just had to have.

[NewFan]

Dallas way, New-York way, Las Vegas way will not work here.
They are attractive teams that every FAs want to play for them with good value.
We don't have that, therefore drafting core players and developing them together is the best way for this team to have a great team that cam compete for the cup few years in a row.
So drafting high makes it easier, but if we can find core players with mid first picks great, but I think we will have to wait longer as the chance is lower and we need many try to hit the jackpots.