2024 Toronto Blue Jays Season Thread

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I'm still waiting for someone claiming the Jays should have done more to improve the offense to show me how they should have done more to improve the offense. That's all.

There wasn't much out there this off season but people keep grading the Jays terribly like they could have done something different.

Offer Ohtani $800 million?
Out bid the Yankees for one year of Soto?

Everything else that was a realistic option (at least we ASSUME it was a realistic option anyways) doesn't really move the needle much without taking on massive amounts of risk.

Over last two seasons, Jays could not find one move to improve their offense?

Options?

1) Sign Bellinger
2) Resign Chapman
3) Sign Soler
4) Sign Teoscar Hernandez
5) Trade for Juan Soto

etc

[Samonadreau]

^*have more in the pipeline

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by flambers

Over last two seasons, Jays could not find one move to improve their offense?

Options?

1) Sign Bellinger
2) Resign Chapman
3) Sign Soler
4) Sign Teoscar Hernandez
5) Trade for Juan Soto

etc

Bellinger is a huge risk for what he wanted. That's why he had take a crap deal just to go back to the Cubs because everyone knows he's massive risk. Plus, he's no guarantee to improve the offense anyways, the guy was terrible for two full seasons before bouncing back last season.

Chapman was barely above a league average bat last season, they offered him a multi year deal worth over $100 million and he turned them down.

Soler doesn't move the needle enough. Why even bring him up? He had 107 wRC+ in 2020, a 100 wRC+ in 2021 and a 95 wRC+ in 2022. He bounced back last season with 126 wRC+ but with that track record do your really think the Jays should have doled out $42 million for him? They signed Turner instead for one year $13 million and he's been a way better hitter than Soler over the last 5 years combined. Low risk vs high risk. Not worth complaining about, like I said it doesn't move the needle enough compared to what they did.

Who says Hernandez even wanted back here? They traded the guy away and he signed with the Dodgers, a team that won 100 games last year and then added Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow etc....do you really think he was an option?

I already brought up Soto. The Yankees gave up a huge package to get him, you really think the Jays should have out bid them just to have Soto for one year? He's a Boras client, he's testing free agency and then the Jays are trying outbid everyone else for his services AGAIN. Sounds like a short sighted risky move to me.

This is what I mean, people complain the Jays didn't do enough. There was nothing decent out there that they missed on that was even remotely realistic and/or moved the needle enough without massive amounts of risk being taken on.

People act like there were just tons of amazing options to pick from but there wasn't. It was barren out there.

Just have to hope the pitching is top 5 or so in the league again, and that the already good hitters we have remember how to hit in 2024.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

People act like there were just tons of amazing options to pick from but there wasn't. It was barren out there.

Just have to hope the pitching is top 5 or so in the league again, and that the already good hitters we have remember how to hit in 2024.

How do you know it was "Barren out there" ? This might of been the Jays plan... who knows.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by flambers

How do you know it was "Barren out there" ? This might of been the Jays plan... who knows.

Well, the Jays went all guns a blazing for Ohtani so clearly he was plan A. After that who knows?

It's pretty obvious it was barren out there because the only UFA bat that wasn't a massive question mark was Ohtani and it came with a 700 million dollar price tag and only wanted to go to the Dodgers.

At the same time the only consistent proven bat that was traded was Soto and you had to pay through the teeth to get him and only for one guaranteed season.

Everything else was a mish mash of question marks, inconsistency or high risk due to contract demands.

[bluejays]

The could've dealt Vlad or the pitchers to recoup assets and have a go at it too. Didn't have to be in the vein of a signing. I'm annoyed from the perspective that their defence philosophy seems off. Was anything addressed in the off-season about why the team was so bad collectively? Coaches more or less the same, management stayed. And we're expecting a bounceback? I just don't get it.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by bluejays

The could've dealt Vlad or the pitchers to recoup assets and have a go at it too. Didn't have to be in the vein of a signing. I'm annoyed from the perspective that their defence philosophy seems off. Was anything addressed in the off-season about why the team was so bad collectively? Coaches more or less the same, management stayed. And we're expecting a bounceback? I just don't get it.

I don’t see how you trade Vladdy and upgrade your offense at the same time….

I think they are expecting Vladdy and varsho to improve along with a couple of others, I think they can squeak into the wildcard but can’t see them do damage

[flames_fan_down_under]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Bellinger is a huge risk for what he wanted. That's why he had take a crap deal just to go back to the Cubs because everyone knows he's massive risk. Plus, he's no guarantee to improve the offense anyways, the guy was terrible for two full seasons before bouncing back last season.

Chapman was barely above a league average bat last season, they offered him a multi year deal worth over $100 million and he turned them down.

Soler doesn't move the needle enough. Why even bring him up? He had 107 wRC+ in 2020, a 100 wRC+ in 2021 and a 95 wRC+ in 2022. He bounced back last season with 126 wRC+ but with that track record do your really think the Jays should have doled out $42 million for him? They signed Turner instead for one year $13 million and he's been a way better hitter than Soler over the last 5 years combined. Low risk vs high risk. Not worth complaining about, like I said it doesn't move the needle enough compared to what they did.

Who says Hernandez even wanted back here? They traded the guy away and he signed with the Dodgers, a team that won 100 games last year and then added Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow etc....do you really think he was an option?

I already brought up Soto. The Yankees gave up a huge package to get him, you really think the Jays should have out bid them just to have Soto for one year? He's a Boras client, he's testing free agency and then the Jays are trying outbid everyone else for his services AGAIN. Sounds like a short sighted risky move to me.

This is what I mean, people complain the Jays didn't do enough. There was nothing decent out there that they missed on that was even remotely realistic and/or moved the needle enough without massive amounts of risk being taken on.

People act like there were just tons of amazing options to pick from but there wasn't. It was barren out there.

Just have to hope the pitching is top 5 or so in the league again, and that the already good hitters we have remember how to hit in 2024.

This is a good perspective.

It was a very strange off-season with probably one of the most bizarre free-agency circus events I have ever witnessed with Ohtani, I think all of us got our hopes up and it was tough to recover.

It is true that there were not a ton of great options and the ones available had a ton of risk and many misjudged the market. But the fact the Jays signed Turner meant that they appear to be ok with an older bat with a potential for age related regression so you would think there is some room for another bat that has a risky profile that can play a corner outfield position, someone like Adam Duvall who signed for 3 million with the Braves had some upside with little risk. Or JD Martinez. There has to be appetite from both sides so it is unknown if they would even come north of the border.

I just think the line up is very thin, we are really crossing our fingers with a lot of "if vlad/daulton/kirk/george can have a good year" then things should look good.

I like the pitching staff though!

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Nate Pearson and Wes Parsons make the team.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Whynotnow

I don’t see how you trade Vladdy and upgrade your offense at the same time….

I think they are expecting Vladdy and varsho to improve along with a couple of others, I think they can squeak into the wildcard but can’t see them do damage

The idea would be that it wouldn’t be to fix this upcoming year. You get cusp prospects and expedite going for it next and the following years. There’s a quality depth issue we have right now.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

A fun article from the Athletic. The author projects the win totals of each team using PECOTA models/simulations, but then draws an analog comparable team from the past to predict what will ACTUALLY happen.

PECOTA has the Jays winning 88 games. The author's analog comparable is the 2018 Red Sox, and suggests the Jays could win the World Series if everything goes right.

Historical analogue: 2018 Boston Red Sox
Projected record: 88-74
Actual record: 108-54, World Series champions

The Red Sox entered 2018 with an enviable core of young position players who’d unexpectedly struggled throughout the prior year, even as their pitching staff helped lead them to the postseason. When it clicked in 2018, it clicked not just for Mookie Betts but for Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi, all at the same time.

The Blue Jays have been a popular preseason pick the last couple of seasons even as they’ve failed to translate their talent into a single October victory. But if it clicks for every part of their offense like it did for Boston, the Jays will be as scary as anyone in the AL.

https://theathletic.com/5367349/2024...view-playoffs/


I want to believe...

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah thats not totally crazy. I think it's. Crazy the Jays made the playoffs last year with Vlad, Kirk, Springer, Manoah, and Varsho underproducing their projections the way they did.

It makes me laugh that people want to turf Atkins when he's the one who actually built a team deep enough to overcome all those core players basically crapping the bed at the same time.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yeah thats not totally crazy. I think it's. Crazy the Jays made the playoffs last year with Vlad, Kirk, Springer, Manoah, and Varsho underproducing their projections the way they did.

It makes me laugh that people want to turf Atkins when he's the one who actually built a team deep enough to overcome all those core players basically crapping the bed at the same time.

Not sure I fully agree. They also hit the jackpot with their pitching not getting injured. It balanced out. Atkins hasn't won a playoff series yet so I'm not giving a ton of credit for just making the playoffs with that payroll, and the lack of talent developed.

[flamingred89]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Nate Pearson and Wes Parsons make the team.

Happy for big Nate. He seems like a really good dude. And I hope he can carve out a nice career. It's tough having all the pressure of being the #1 prospect in baseball. And then somewhere along the way his development got all effed up by the spin rate and velocity shenanigans. He still has an electric arm though.

[Hockey]

Just saw Jays open season in Tampa. Gross

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by bluejays

The idea would be that it wouldn’t be to fix this upcoming year. You get cusp prospects and expedite going for it next and the following years. There’s a quality depth issue we have right now.

Thanks for the explanation. I think that’s a tough call for Roger’s and the team. You’d really be selling low in that scenario and taking away a popular player.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Hockey

Just saw Jays open season in Tampa. Gross

Yeah, kind of takes the wind out of the sails of opening day playing against Tampa in a half full, garbage stadium.

[KelVarnsen]

I read that has “half full of garbage stadium.”

[flamingred89]

Maybe this is the year that Tampa finally regresses and the Jays can beat up on them all season.

**Copy and pasted since 2008**

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Not sure I fully agree. They also hit the jackpot with their pitching not getting injured. It balanced out. Atkins hasn't won a playoff series yet so I'm not giving a ton of credit for just making the playoffs with that payroll, and the lack of talent developed.

Yeah, that's what irks me about excusing the front-offices inaction with claims about positive regression to the mean... it presupposes that all the stuff that went wrong last year will go right this year and that nothing that went right last year will go wrong this year.