2024 Off-season trade rumours and speculation thread

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

I hope the coach doesn't even play Markstrom down the stretch and makes upper management look even more incompetent.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Huska weighed in on the keep Markstrom side. “We owe it the guys in the room” and all that. Next season will weigh heavily in his future as an NHL coach, and that season looks a lot better with Markstrom in the fold than without.

[Wastedyouth]

Sweet. We are back to revisiting the Markstrom non-trade again and everyone's version of what they think they heard happened.

Wooooo!

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Sweet. We are back to revisiting the Markstrom non-trade again and everyone's version of what they think they heard happened.

Wooooo!

It’s not as though it’s crowding out rumours about potential trades. There aren’t any this time of year.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Several insiders reported that Conroy had a deal he liked but it was nixed by someone higher up over retention. We don’t know to what extent that means the money itself or the compensation for retention. I suspect it was both at work - Edwards/Bean don’t like paying million to people who aren’t working for them, and so Maloney pushed Conroy to ask for more in compensation.

There were also multiple reports that a week to 10 days later the Devils came back with a revised offer that didn’t include salary retention. The reason the Flames turned this down is murkier. It could have been that the revised deal didn’t offer enough hockey value. But we do have reports from Freidman that this second deal was nixed by ownership out of hopes of making the playoffs.

The fact the Flames dealt Hanifin after that date does not invalidate this conjecture. Hanifin was a pending UFA. And the Flames made multiple pitches to re-sign him. They only dealt Hanifin once they had no choice. That’s not the case at all with Markstrom. He’s not a ‘deal him or lose him for nothing’ asset like Hanifin was.

This is all speculative enough that people can believe what they want. Personally, given the track record of this franchise, I have an easier time believing ownership pulled the plug on a deal that Conroy liked than I have believing that several NHL insiders were all manipulated into carrying water for the Devils.

IMO this is the most accurate synopsis of the situation possible and aligns with Markstrom’s public comments.

[Flames1217]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It wouldn’t surprise me if Huska weighed in on the keep Markstrom side. “We owe it the guys in the room” and all that. Next season will weigh heavily in his future as an NHL coach, and that season looks a lot better with Markstrom in the fold than without.

If anyone should be safe at the moment it should be Huska. He has maintained the room throughout all the noise, all the struggles and has coached the team about as good as any other coach could.

I hope that he can stick around long term, team has seen more than enough coaches in the past decade.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

Sweet. We are back to revisiting the Markstrom non-trade again and everyone's version of what they think they heard happened.

Wooooo!

I feel like I get a little bit dumber every time someone explains why their interpretation/version of the rumour based on nothing is the correct one.

It’s like a Rorschach test for dumb people. And, somehow worse than the complete, brain-numbing pointlessness of someone explaining “here’s what I’m willing to believe” is the people that chime in after with “wow if the story you just made up is true that’s AWFUL, get rid of (insert guy they already hated).”

[Lanny_McDonald]

It also would have been the most consequential trade with potential to add a top six forward and a high draft pick. Why wouldn't people want to understand exactly why the team elected to not make a deal that would have really helped the retool/rebuild?

[Major Major]

All this supposed dot connecting ignores the most important line of questioning. Who leaked it and why?

Plenty of evidence out there that the league has taken Conny for a lamb and have been operating like he can be bullied since his first day.

[Bleeding Red]

This may be a stoopid question - when we are talking retention is that simply a cap compliance number or actual cash? We are retaining about $5 mil on Hanifin & Tanev. Is CGY paying that money to those guys, or is that just a cap number to keep the other team compliant?

[keratosis]

Originally Posted by Bleeding Red

This may be a stoopid question - when we are talking retention is that simply a cap compliance number or actual cash? We are retaining about $5 mil on Hanifin & Tanev. Is CGY paying that money to those guys, or is that just a cap number to keep the other team compliant?

It's both.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Bleeding Red

This may be a stoopid question - when we are talking retention is that simply a cap compliance number or actual cash? We are retaining about $5 mil on Hanifin & Tanev. Is CGY paying that money to those guys, or is that just a cap number to keep the other team compliant?

The salary is pro rated for what’s already been paid to the player this season. I don’t think the retention is anywhere near $5 million.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I feel like I get a little bit dumber every time someone explains why their interpretation/version of the rumour based on nothing is the correct one.

It’s like a Rorschach test for dumb people. And, somehow worse than the complete, brain-numbing pointlessness of someone explaining “here’s what I’m willing to believe” is the people that chime in after with “wow if the story you just made up is true that’s AWFUL, get rid of (insert guy they already hated).”

I expect in time the myth will grow to be that the Flames turned down the Hughes Brothers and multiple first round picks because Edward's and Bean wanted to get two home playoff games.

The usual crew of folk here have already made up their minds that this non trade has set the franchise back decades.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

The salary is pro rated for what’s already been paid to the player this season. I don’t think the retention is anywhere near $5 million.

Yeah, let's say a player has an $8 million cap hit and is traded with 25% remaining in the final year of his contract and his compensation for that season was a $2 million signing bonus and $4 million in regular salary.

If he's traded with exactly 25% of the season remaining, he will still be owed $1 million for the remainder of the season because he would have already been paid the signing bonus and 75% of his salary. If the trading team retained 50% of his contract, they would be paying him half of the $1 million still owed and they would keep $4 million of his cap hit on the books for the rest of the season too.



Looking at the Flames trades this season (192 days long season):

• Tanev traded on day #142 (26.04% of season remaining): Flames retained $2.25 million in cap hit or $585,937.50 in cash.
• Hanifin traded on day #150 (21.875% of season remaining): Flames retained $2.475 million in cap hit or $541,406.25 in cash.

That's where Markstrom having 2 years remaining on his contract makes a huge difference. Markstrom is being paid $8 million (all salary) this season and $6 million ($2.5 signing bonus and $3.5 salary) for each of the next 2 seasons.

If he had been traded on February 16 (the day after the San Jose game when it seemed like the deal was closest to happening), it would have been day #130 (32.29% of the season remaining). If a deal had been made with 50% retention on that day, it would have meant the Flames paying $1.29 million in cash for the rest of the season plus $3 million in cash for each of the next two seasons. That's a total cash commitment of $7.29 million.


If you look at the Tanev and Hanifin trades and what New Jersey and Philly got for taking on 25% of those contracts: New Jersey got a 2026 4th rounder for taking 25% of Tanev's remaining contract (just under $300,000 cash) and the Flyers got a 2024 5th rounder for taking 25% of Hanifin's remaining contract (just over $270,000 cash).

If a little more than a quarter million in cash is worth a mid-round pick, what should $7.3 million in cash be worth?

[cannon7]

You can like the young players you have and still recognize that you won't have the horses to contend next season.

You can also recognize that the UFA market, even if you overpay and exhaust your available cap, doesn't have these horses either.

So short some miracle trade, the best move is likely still to trade Markstrom this summer. The team in front of him will be weaker next season, as such it is not a good gamble to keep him and have his value slide.

I assume this is why people are still obsessing over this trade?

[Nelson]

I’d like the Flames to do two things during the rest of the regular season, so the team can make fully informed decisions about player movement this summer:

(1) Play Wolf a lot, and

(2) Play Zary at center, with some skilled wingers.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by cannon7

You can like the young players you have and still recognize that you won't have the horses to contend next season.

You can also recognize that the UFA market, even if you overpay and exhaust your available cap, doesn't have these horses either.

So short some miracle trade, the best move is likely still to trade Markstrom this summer. The team in front of him will be weaker next season, as such it is not a good gamble to keep him and have his value slide.

I assume this is why people are still obsessing over this trade?

I think that goaltender values are a lot more volatile than skaters. If Markstrom, turning 35 next season, opens October with a .890 save percentage, suddenly with two more years left on his deal at $6 million what's his value on the market?

Not saying the Flames should or shouldn't have made the deal before the deadline but those are valid concerns.

[Roof-Daddy]

I'd just like Zary to be healthy.

I get so damn sick of all our better prospects always getting effing injured.

Poirier comes out guns blazing, injured for like 7 months
Pelletier poised to make NHL roster fill time, injured for like 6 months
Honzek down in junior
Pospisil battled injuries for years and is a concussion away from the next Ferland
Zary having a solid rookie year, bam...injured

Annoying as hell

[getbak]

I'll be very surprised if Markstrom is still a Flame on opening day next season.

I'm expecting a deal shortly before or at the draft. Although, because he's due a significant signing bonus, teams might want to wait until after it's paid (likely July 1) before acquiring him.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

It also would have been the most consequential trade with potential to add a top six forward and a high draft pick. Why wouldn't people want to understand exactly why the team elected to not make a deal that would have really helped the retool/rebuild?

Who was the top six forward? I have never read a credible scenario where there was both a top six forward and a high draft pick in the same trade.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

It also would have been the most consequential trade with potential to add a top six forward and a high draft pick. Why wouldn't people want to understand exactly why the team elected to not make a deal that would have really helped the retool/rebuild?

Of course people want to understand why the trade never happened. But speculating, and buying into rumours, (especially when there was motivation to plant rumours), does not get anyone any closer to understanding, and may even be counter-productive - especially when it is human nature to assume the worst.