2024 Off-season trade rumours and speculation thread

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

To me that feels like a large overpayment on Markstrom.

1st+Bahl+3rd imo would have beat the vegas offer for Hanifin, which is what I would have offered personally, at least earlier in the season, although I believe calgary wanted to wait until the deadline. I personally value casey at a 1st+3rd (he has the same PPG this year as Hutson for example with better defensive metrics, much more of his production 5v5, and is a more physical player and better skater. Imo the best dman in College Hockey). So that means we're paying slightly less than Mercer+1st for Markstrom, which is a HEFTY price.

After Mcleod left the wheels fell off, and from my view, once he was gone our bottom 6 depth, and overall play took a big hit and after that I'm quite glad we didn't buy.

My belief was the large packages rumoured involved both Hanifin and Markstrom.

I generally prefer to speak in terms of pick values, so for the package of Hanifin+Markstrom (50%) retained, I would have offered 3 1sts of value, or whatever that looks like in equivalent assets.

1st+1st+1st+Bahl+Vitek for example to keep rosters balanced.


I expect NJD to still make a push at Hanifin in UFA (Hanifin and Tom Fitzgerald have an existing relationship).

My ideal target personally, over any goalie is Marcus Pettersson.

NJD this year has struggled with being slower offensively (Losing Mcleod, Wood, Boqvist, Tatar)

And defensive breakout passes (Bahl has his struggles there, Smith is horrific, and Siegs and Marino have taken a step back as well as the loss of hamilton)

Pettersson has played 2 years on a pairing with John Marino already, would help our PK tremendously, our defensive play, and our puck moving

Hughes-Nemec
Pettersson-Marino
Siegenthaler-Hamilton

Are the Devils paying you to write essays on a Calgary forum?

I don't think that's a very good use of company time.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Are the Devils paying you to write essays on a Calgary forum?

I don't think that's a very good use of company time.

Like who cares about the Devils, and what thinks they need. Go post that on your Devils board.

The GM said he is going goalie hunting this offseason, he has been clear about it.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I always thought McDavid to Toronto and Draisaitl to LA. Not sure Toronto can work it now

Toronto can work it and will. There is a reason they want to keep all their 1st rnd picks and young prospects like Cowan, they are going to need those young cost controlled assets to fill out the roster. I will be pretty surprised if McDavid does not go to Toronto.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Lube those pitchforks, boys! This guy's committing time theft.

(That's how they do it in NJ, right?)

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

To me that feels like a large overpayment on Markstrom.

1st+Bahl+3rd imo would have beat the vegas offer for Hanifin, which is what I would have offered personally, at least earlier in the season, although I believe calgary wanted to wait until the deadline. I personally value casey at a 1st+3rd (he has the same PPG this year as Hutson for example with better defensive metrics, much more of his production 5v5, and is a more physical player and better skater. Imo the best dman in College Hockey). So that means we're paying slightly less than Mercer+1st for Markstrom, which is a HEFTY price.

After Mcleod left the wheels fell off, and from my view, once he was gone our bottom 6 depth, and overall play took a big hit and after that I'm quite glad we didn't buy.

My belief was the large packages rumoured involved both Hanifin and Markstrom.

I generally prefer to speak in terms of pick values, so for the package of Hanifin+Markstrom (50%) retained, I would have offered 3 1sts of value, or whatever that looks like in equivalent assets.

1st+1st+1st+Bahl+Vitek for example to keep rosters balanced.


I expect NJD to still make a push at Hanifin in UFA (Hanifin and Tom Fitzgerald have an existing relationship).

My ideal target personally, over any goalie is Marcus Pettersson.

NJD this year has struggled with being slower offensively (Losing Mcleod, Wood, Boqvist, Tatar)

And defensive breakout passes (Bahl has his struggles there, Smith is horrific, and Siegs and Marino have taken a step back as well as the loss of hamilton)

Pettersson has played 2 years on a pairing with John Marino already, would help our PK tremendously, our defensive play, and our puck moving

Hughes-Nemec
Pettersson-Marino
Siegenthaler-Hamilton

How much do you think Mercer is worth is probably the question...

1st+1st+1st+Bahl+Vitek feels pretty close to Mercer + 1st + Casey (add Vanecek for cap if you want).

My gut is Mercer would be worth a 1st + 2nd if you were shopping him at the draft.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

Are we sure that he's a Devil's fan and not Spurs? When the poster first came on and he remind me of Spurs and the join date lined up.

He just seems too comfortable jumping in and start debating with CPers ...finding ways ro put down the Flames as Spurs liked to do. Spurs also had a habit of ignoring what posters were saying just to repeat the same things over.

I don't think he is Spurs, there is a severe lack of accusing people of lying.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

How much do you think Mercer is worth is probably the question...

1st+1st+1st+Bahl+Vitek feels pretty close to Mercer + 1st + Casey (add Vanecek for cap if you want).

My gut is Mercer would be worth a 1st + 2nd if you were shopping him at the draft.

Depends on where the 1st is. I think at the bare minimum we're starting with the Kirby Dach price. And Mercer's production is levels above what Dach's was.


I think in terms of a draft position slot I'd value him as equal to 6th-7th overall pick or so.

Wasn't put on the table for Markstrom, wasn't put on the table for Meier.


And if Mercer was put on the block I think you'd be shocked at how much of a haul we fetches. When we talk bidding wars, there's not a team in the league that doesn't have a slot for Mercer or a need.

Need a C? Mercer
Need a winger? Mercer
Need someone for your PK? Mercer
Need someone for your PP? Mercer
Need to save cap space in the immediate future as a contender? Mercer on a bridge
Looking to have a bunch of savings and a bargain down the line for a rebuilder? Mercer on an 8 year deal.

I think in this case you're valuing Mercer at a valuation much closer to where Holtz is (Newhook price).

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

And if Mercer was put on the block I think you'd be shocked at how much of a haul we fetches.

Calm down Gollum, Mercer is having a down year and is not returning what Dach did nor a big haul. He is probably worth a mid 1st in this draft.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Calm down Gollum, Mercer is having a down year and is not returning what Dach did nor a big haul. He is probably worth a mid 1st in this draft.

Mercer in a down year is going to get as many goals as Dach did in the 3 years before he was traded. Combined.

If Calgary views ELC roster players like that Fitzgerald should put in a call and get Zary for a late 1st

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Mercer in a down year is going to get as many goals as Dach did in the 3 years before he was traded. Combined.

If Calgary views ELC roster players like that Fitzgerald should put in a call and get Zary for a late 1st

... Mercer's ELC is up after this season. He's not really a ELC player anymore.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Mercer in a down year is going to get as many goals as Dach did in the 3 years before he was traded. Combined.

If Calgary views ELC roster players like that Fitzgerald should put in a call and get Zary for a late 1st

Doesn't matter, doesn't have the upside that Kirby Dach had at the time. You are really off on how teams evaluate talent vs what they are worth. Do you think Mercer would fetch more than Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli in a trade too?

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Parallex

... Mercer's ELC is up after this season. He's not really a ELC player anymore.

Both currently on ELCs. Same draft class. (In fact Zary is older).

I should have said 22 year old roster players tho.

It seems like a consistent trend on here to vastly underrate these type of assets.

Lundell, Mercer, Holtz, etc.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Doesn't matter, doesn't have the upside that Kirby Dach had at the time. You are really off on how teams evaluate talent vs what they are worth. Do you think Mercer would fetch more than Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli in a trade too?

Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson are D+1s actually producing at a high level. Both of whom have already surpassed the level of play that Dach reached at any point pre trade.

But again, if you're that hung up on draft position and upside, better pay way up for Holtz then

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Both currently on ELCs. Same draft class. (In fact Zary is older).

Zary isn't an RFA until 2025-26.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Zary isn't an RFA until 2025-26.

He's an RFA the same year as Holtz yes. After next year

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

He's an RFA the same year as Holtz yes. After next year

But not Mercer (that's who you were talking about).

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Parallex

But not Mercer (that's who you were talking about).

It was a more general point about the continuous undervaluing of these type of assets on here. (and it goes back to Predeadline when mercer would have still had an ELC), but yes, I should have clarified better.

In fact I believe the conversation was about a valuation of a pre deadline Mercer in regards to Hanifin and Markstrom.

If Mercer is worth only a mid 1st in a trade, NJD shouldn't trade him. In fact they should be going out and getting a bunch of these assets.

Lundell, Zary, Raymond, Jarvis, Drysdale (he could also be included as a reference to the value of these types of assets), Lafreniere, Askarov, Guhle, etc. If the market is that cheap on them fitz should be all over it

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

It was a more general point about the continuous undervaluing of these type of assets on here.

But there is a big difference between the two... one is going to be paid peanuts next year and the other will likely be paid about $5M+ bucks (on a longterm deal if all parties are so inclined, less on a bridge).

[saillias]

Originally Posted by HitterD

I’m starting to believe that dgibb10 is, in fact, Mudcrutch/Tyler Dellow, as was speculated back in the other thread. It makes sense with the posting style, the insane need to show he’s smarter than everyone else. I figured someone THAT defensive was possibly a Devils employee. lol

It does fit the profile but you gotta think someone with this job has better things to do https://www.eliteprospects.com/staff/16663/tyler-dellow

It is a little weird this poster had very specific info about Flames gossip that you only know if you're very plugged in. Specifically how Backlund requested a trade before changing his mind and accepting the captaincy. That makes me raise my eyebrow, why on earth would a random NJD debate pervert have that in their back pocket.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by saillias

It is a little weird this poster had very specific info about Flames gossip that you only know if you're very plugged in. Specifically how Backlund requested a trade before changing his mind and accepting the captaincy.

I knew about Backlund's trade request, and I'm not plugged into anything.