[Rumour] Dreger: Markstrom trade won't happen unless NJ includes Mercer and higher draft pick

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

What $13m are you talking about?

Also, being a Vezina finalist 2 out of 3 years is in fact worth quite a bit - whether or not you choose to accept that is up to you

The $13M is the money due to Markstrom. If you think the next 2 1/4 years of Markstrom are going to be like the last 39 games, well, bless your heart.

[The Cobra]

Do you think Calgary would trade Yegor for Mercer in a New York minute?

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

ONE of the last 4, not 2. And that one was because he and his partner had a baby and it was a distraction for him

20-21 and 22-23. Both years he was not a positive. And so what happens if Markstrom's partner gets pregnant again?

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Sharangovich was an NHL rookie in his 22-year-old season, and put up 16 goals in 54 games.

In his 21-year-old season he was in Binghamton.

The KHL stint was also when he was 22, playing with Dinamo Minsk while the NHL was shut down.

You are correct.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

20-21 and 22-23. Both years he was not a positive.

In '20-21 the Flames missed the playoffs because they couldn't beat the Ottawa Senators. Other teams in the Canadian Division played the Sens early, when they were incredibly bad; by the time the Flames drew them in the schedule, the Sens had begun to get their game together.

Goaltending had little to do with it one way or the other.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

The $13M is the money due to Markstrom. If you think the next 2 1/4 years of Markstrom are going to be like the last 39 games, well, bless your heart.

retention was part of the discussion

I have no idea what the future will bring, but assuming that it will be similar to the recent past is the best logical guess. That is a more sensible conclusion than your "I don't like goalies and I don't like Markstrom - so there!" argument

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

And so what happens if Markstrom's partner gets pregnant again?

Silly question. How many first-born children does one couple have?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Do you think Calgary would trade Yegor for Mercer in a New York minute?

What point are you trying to make here - no one was making that argument. Mercer has been good so far in his young career. He hasn't been 1st line good, so let's not anoint him with anything just yet.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

My point is that trading for Markstrom is not a guarantee of anything. 2 of the last 4 years he has actively hurt the flames and been a reason why they missed the playoffs.

And now he's heading into his mid 30s.

There's a common fallacy that teams with goalies playing well fall into. They become convinced that it will last forever (Markstrom)

Fanbases of goalies currently struggling (Saros, Vasy) are convinced that this is just an aberration. And with how volatile goalies are it's not hard for any hopeful fanbase to overrate their goalie by choosing a sample size to look at.

There's about 20 "top 10 goalies", and about 10 "top 3 goalies" at any given time.

I think markstrom would have provided a lot of value this year. However he's no more of a sure thing at age 35 next year and age 36 in 2 years than any other goalie we pick up. Heck you go back to last year and he was worse than Vitek.

Jesus, no one was trying to trade Markstrom. No one was incessantly pushing Markstrom on the Devils like a religious door knocker. Your team was the one that came trying to pry him away, and you got hopeful, that it could be done, and that he’d save your season and carry you deep but now you’re left sadly coping with the loss of that chance like an Oiler fan would and does.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

20-21 and 22-23. Both years he was not a positive. And so what happens if Markstrom's partner gets pregnant again?

The Flames weren't good that year, and goalie stats are often a function of the team in front of them (only a fool debates goalies, purely on stats.

As to the bold - so you ARE 10. Okay, bye.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Yegot put up 17 goals in 34 games in the KHL in his 21 year old season. Why are you incapable of getting his age right?

I went off of hockey references age by year. It lists 20-21 as his age 22 season. Regardless, mercer is LEVELS ahead of yegor at that age.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Flames weren't good that year, and goalie stats are often a function of the team in front of them (only a fool debates goalies, purely on stats.

As to the bold - so you ARE 10. Okay, bye.

Hence why I use GSAx which takes into account quality of shots. 20-21 was actually much worse than 22-23

[FlamesFan1000]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

20-21 and 22-23. Both years he was not a positive. And so what happens if Markstrom's partner gets pregnant again?

Do you have a life? How are you still arguing in this forum?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

retention was part of the discussion

I have no idea what the future will bring, but assuming that it will be similar to the recent past is the best logical guess. That is a more sensible conclusion than your "I don't like goalies and I don't like Markstrom - so there!" argument

You’re being silly. Is your argument “I like Markstrom and I like goalies - so there!”? I doubt it, and I don’t characterize it that way. So, please cut it out.

The recent past is the best logical guess of how a goaltender will perform? You really think so?





Quite a convincing argument.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Jesus, no one was trying to trade Markstrom. No one was incessantly pushing Markstrom on the Devils like a religious door knocker. Your team was the one that came trying to pry him away, and you got hopeful, that it could be done, and that he’d save your season and carry you deep but now you’re left sadly coping with the loss of that chance like an Oiler fan would and does.

I have very consistently been very clear that trading for Markstrom would be a bad idea

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

I went off of hockey references age by year. It lists 20-21 as his age 22 season. Regardless, mercer is LEVELS ahead of yegor at that age.

Good, but when he has a down year and needs a change of scenery…well you know the rest.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

20-21 and 22-23. Both years he was not a positive. And so what happens if Markstrom's partner gets pregnant again?

He has had one bad season in the 9 ish years he's been a starter and one kind of meh season. The rest are good to very, very good.

His one horrible season was apparently due to I believe a tough or stressful pregnancy.

He is likely to be a Vezina finalist 2 of the last 3 years after this one ends.

This is about as sure a thing as you get in a goalie.

For $3mil a year the risk reward is very attractive and over he next two years gives the Devil's as good a shot as they will find for solving their goaltending issues.

If goaltending is so unimportant I would asky why more teams weren't lining up to take Holtz off the Devil's hands.

Fitz said the entire goalie market was coughing. Perhaps he is due for one of those, "it's not you, it's me" moments.

And Markstrom was my least favourite Flame for his play last year. But hearing why, and seeing him back to form this year tells a story.

Fitz was better off standing pat than trading for Jake Allen.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

I have very consistently been very clear that trading for Markstrom would be a bad idea

Then for once would you explain why you’re here? Or you’re just afraid to out yourself as an Oiler fan troll?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Hence why I use GSAx which takes into account quality of shots. 20-21 was actually much worse than 22-23

Yes, we all know what it is, thanks. Still flawed, but I am not going to get into a debate with a troll like you about why. You cannot separate the team from the goalie stat.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You’re being silly. Is your argument “I like Markstrom and I like goalies - so there!”? I doubt it, and I don’t characterize it that way. So, please cut it out.

The recent past is the best logical guess of how a goaltender will perform? You really think so?





Quite a convincing argument.

Well, if you understand the stats you're quoting, you know that when there is random variability, the best guess for future data points is no change.