[Rumour] Dreger: Markstrom trade won't happen unless NJ includes Mercer and higher draft pick

[Major Major]

Lol, 2 out of the last 3 seasons, team lotto 2.0 have missed the playoffs due to goaltending. They've tried like 15 c level goalies and none of them work. Who would have thought?

But goalie acquisition is easy guys! Go ask the Oilers what it feels like to be on year 10 of your lottery team and have nothing to show for it.

[PuckDemon]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

All of those teams have older cores. NJD is still a top 5 youngest team in hockey. If we make the playoffs we'll be the youngest team in the playoffs.

This is absolutely not the time to go all in.

Let's look at 3 of the goalies you mention and their acquisition costs for their current team:

Adin Hill: 4th/free to retain as UFA
Jacob Markstrom: free as a UFA
Linus Ullmark: free as a UFA

Again it's why I scoff at the idea that you can only get a top goalie via massively paying up in a trade. It is virtually the only position where you can in fact find a top guy without breaking the bank. You can't get a C like that. Even a 2C will cost you boatloads in free agency (see the ridiculous contract asks of Elias Lindholm)

Calgary was willing to offer Elias Lindholm 9 mill a year from age 31-38.

Mercer will cost at most around 6-6.5 mill AAV from age 22-29.

Personally I'd much rather have mercer over that time frame straight up, not even including the 24 million dollars you'd save

I don't think Markstrom is worth as much as most seem to. Having said that, I see why people have problems with your arguments.

Isn't the reason why goalies are worth less money because their performance is less predictable? You're using the benefit of hindsight to make your argument.

You've also said you consider UFA prices to be the true market value of a player. In that case, acquiring a player in a trade is for a discounted player.

If you were to be intellectually honest, you would have to rephrase as such: you can't get a proven top goalie at a discount exactly when you want him and with minimal competing teams, without massively paying up in a trade.

[mrdonkey]

Fitz comes across as a salty little bitch baby.

You want a mid season fix to your team’s greatest area of need, signed for multiple years, with retention. But you want to be the one dictating the cost?

Holy moly, can’t see this guy lasting too much longer. Enjoy the band-aids. We know all too well how that works out.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Mercer get's 17+ minutes a night. In fact he gets the exact same amount as Yegor Sharangovich. Will yegor also be leaving next year because of a lack of opportunities?

No idea where this narrative that mercer doesn't get ice time comes from

From his draft class only Stutzle, Laffy, and Raymond get more ice time as forwards. Is connor Zary, who's been given significantly less ice time and opportunity than Mercer, about to ask out?

There is no such thing as having too many Cs, and we can and have played him everywhere up and down the lineup to get value.

If we can extract full value for mercer we will. But NJD isn't going to throw away assets at the most valuable position for the least valued position just because we have 2 other top Cs

Oh wow, if he gets the same ice time as Sharangovich, maybe he IS worth multiple firsts!

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Fitz comes across as a salty little bitch baby.

Veruca Salt-y little bitch baby.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Oh wow, if he gets the same ice time as Sharangovich, maybe he IS worth multiple firsts!

Sharangovich can actually put the puck in the net though. Doesn’t Mercer have like 16 goals and 11 assists?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by PuckDemon

I don't think Markstrom is worth as much as most seem to. Having said that, I see why people have problems with your arguments.

Isn't the reason why goalies are worth less money because their performance is less predictable? You're using the benefit of hindsight to make your argument.

You've also said you consider UFA prices to be the true market value of a player. In that case, acquiring a player in a trade is for a discounted player.

If you were to be intellectually honest, you would have to rephrase as such: you can't get a proven top goalie at a discount exactly when you want him and with minimal competing teams, without massively paying up in a trade.

Except gibb has also said that UFA players are worthless because they are had for free. ie. Markstrom has no value because the Canucks let him walk to free agency and because he became a UFA he must be bad.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Fitz comes across as a salty little bitch baby.

Karen. He's a Karen.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Sharangovich can actually put the puck in the net though. Doesn’t Mercer have like 16 goals and 11 assists?

He’s also more than 3 years older.

Mercer had 27 goals last year.

There is a reason why Mercer is off limits.

And there is a reason why Calgary covets him.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He’s also more than 3 years older.

Mercer had 27 goals last year.

There is a reason why Mercer is off limits.

And there is a reason why Calgary covets him.

He's producing similarly to Sharangovich. Full stop. He is producing like the mid-first round pick that he is.

Covets is a strong word - the Flames want fair comp for their (likely Vezina finalist - which would be the 2nd time in 3 years) goalie.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Lol, 2 out of the last 3 seasons, team lotto 2.0 have missed the playoffs due to goaltending. They've tried like 15 c level goalies and none of them work. Who would have thought?

But goalie acquisition is easy guys! Go ask the Oilers what it feels like to be on year 10 of your lottery team and have nothing to show for it.

The flames have also missed the playoffs in 2/4 years due to Markstrom not playing well.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He's producing similarly to Sharangovich. Full stop. He is producing like the mid-first round pick that he is.

Covets is a strong word - the Flames want fair comp for their (likely Vezina finalist - which would be the 2nd time in 3 years) goalie.

Yegor at age 21 was putting up 25 points in the AHL. Mercer at age 21 scored 27 goals in the NHL

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

He's producing similarly to Sharangovich. Full stop. He is producing like the mid-first round pick that he is.

Covets is a strong word - the Flames want fair comp for their (likely Vezina finalist - which would be the 2nd time in 3 years) goalie.

Why that’s worth Mercer, a 1st rounder, and $13 million has no basis in reality.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Yegor at age 21 was putting up 25 points in the AHL. Mercer at age 21 scored 27 goals in the NHL

Yegot put up 17 goals in 34 games in the KHL in his 21 year old season. Why are you incapable of getting his age right?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Yegor at age 21 was putting up 25 points in the AHL. Mercer at age 21 scored 27 goals in the NHL

Thanks for typing out some stats.

There's also this thing called progression, it's complicated, but some players improve a lot, and others don't improve as much.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Great. My valuation of Markstrom in that case just went way down on a 34 year old goalie with mediocre GAA and SV% numbers. based on his SV%, GAA, and cap hit, I'm thinking future considerations.

His GSAx is fantastic, but if that doesn't matter I'm sure a guy with SV% and GAA numbers around the 10-20 mark making top 5 money isn't worth much

Why are you here? You came here looking for discussion about why the trade of Markstrom for Holtz 1 for 1 didn’t happen. Then you were learned that you didn’t even have good intel and have just gone on a downward spiral arguing with every forum member and taking unfounded shots at the Flames like it’s going to hurt our feelings and we’re going to make you a prince or something.

Go whine about Markstrom, the Flames and your terrible season with Devils fans, if you can muster the brain cells to find them.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Why that’s worth Mercer, a 1st rounder, and $13 million has no basis in reality.

What $13m are you talking about?

Also, being a Vezina finalist 2 out of 3 years is in fact worth quite a bit - whether or not you choose to accept that is up to you

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by PuckDemon

I don't think Markstrom is worth as much as most seem to. Having said that, I see why people have problems with your arguments.

Isn't the reason why goalies are worth less money because their performance is less predictable? You're using the benefit of hindsight to make your argument.

You've also said you consider UFA prices to be the true market value of a player. In that case, acquiring a player in a trade is for a discounted player.

If you were to be intellectually honest, you would have to rephrase as such: you can't get a proven top goalie at a discount exactly when you want him and with minimal competing teams, without massively paying up in a trade.

My point is that trading for Markstrom is not a guarantee of anything. 2 of the last 4 years he has actively hurt the flames and been a reason why they missed the playoffs.

And now he's heading into his mid 30s.

There's a common fallacy that teams with goalies playing well fall into. They become convinced that it will last forever (Markstrom)

Fanbases of goalies currently struggling (Saros, Vasy) are convinced that this is just an aberration. And with how volatile goalies are it's not hard for any hopeful fanbase to overrate their goalie by choosing a sample size to look at.

There's about 20 "top 10 goalies", and about 10 "top 3 goalies" at any given time.

I think markstrom would have provided a lot of value this year. However he's no more of a sure thing at age 35 next year and age 36 in 2 years than any other goalie we pick up. Heck you go back to last year and he was worse than Vitek.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Yegot put up 17 goals in 34 games in the KHL in his 21 year old season. Why are you incapable of getting his age right?

Sharangovich was an NHL rookie in his 22-year-old season, and put up 16 goals in 54 games.

In his 21-year-old season he was in Binghamton.

The KHL stint was also when he was 22, playing with Dinamo Minsk while the NHL was shut down.

[Enoch Root]

ONE of the last 4, not 2. And that one was because he and his partner had a baby and it was a distraction for him