Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

I agree with calgarygeologist, Nenshi does seem the most polarizing. None of the other candidates come close in either approval or disapproval. And given Nenshi is largely unknown outside Calgary other than he was mayor of Calgary I would think much of the negativity would be from within Calgary. And that is not good if the NDP is trying to win Calgary.

Just think about the bolded.

It doesn’t point to someone being polarizing, it points to the fact that Nenshi is the most well-known of all the people listed, specifically in Calgary. Of course he’s going to have the most positive and the most negative. Outside of Hoffman, the majority of people don’t even know who any of the others are.

If you’re looking for the most polarizing based on the negative/positive split, it would be Hoffman by far, followed by Stonehouse, and then Nenshi with Pancholi and Ganley being virtually the same in terms of polarization as he is.

And the fact that positive sentiment toward Nenshi polled over 50% in Calgary is an extremely good endorsement if they’re trying to win Calgary. Nobody else came close.

I don’t know what numbers you guys are looking at because they don’t tell anything close to the story you have in your head.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Weitz

You want to win an election. I still think Nenshi would be a net loss in votes. That poll doesn’t indicate either.

He polls better than literally everyone else on there.

[GGG]

If you look at the ratio of positive to negative there is minimal difference in popularity between the candidates. The only difference is knowledge of the candidates between Nenshi, Granley and Pancholi.

I think the correct way to read this poll is Nenshi is better known than Granley and Pancholi and Hoffman is disliked.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

He polls better than literally everyone else on there.

If only that won elections.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Slava

^1000% this. If you have a leader and the entire province aside from political junkies is like “who?”, that doesn’t bode well. If Nenshi doesn’t run, those others are not winning the next election.

Although, I do find it rather amusing that they’re seemingly all in a rush to get rid of the carbon tax. Way to stick to your guns.

In a shorter timeframe I would agree that a big name would be the way to go but the NDP have almost three years until the next election so they can pick pretty much anyone and the critical piece is selling them, the party and policy to Albertans. A big name likely won't win them the election on it's own and an otherwise unknown also won't lose them the election at this point. If they do a crappy job over the two years with their new leader than they are doomed.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Weitz

If only that won elections.

Well, it’s a better data point than Weitz’ personal opinion on net vote gains.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Nenshi is the most polarizing and the negative sentiment is largest in Calgary which could potentially hurt the NDP a lot in what has become the significant battleground.

This is a bizarre take. All it shows is that he is by far the most well known and of the 60+% who recognize his name, 2/3rds have a favorable opinion.

[Johnny Makarov]

Look at all these Yohos trying to sway us away from Nenshi.... lol.

[boogerz]

It's a good indicator that more people are excited for Nenshi than angry on those poll results.

Those "excited" folks are likely going to be the ones that are vocal about their opinions and instrumental in swaying the apathetic folks and mushy middle (comfortable or frustrated).

The NDP need Nenshi for his name recognition. Even though we're three years out from the election, what can Pancholi and Ganley realistically do to raise their profiles and notoriety to a point where they can stand out from the party banner like Notley and Nenshi do? I don't see that happening for either of them

[CliffFletcher]

I hung out last night with a friend who’s big enough in NDP circles in this city that he’s having private lunches with all the leadership candidates. At his lunch with Ganley, he warned that making Alberta NDP party membership automatically include federal NDP membership is a problem in this province. She did say she’d raise the matter at the party convention, so he probably isn’t the only person telling her that.

[Muta]

I really like Pancholi, but Nenshi is just too big of a name and it's wayyyyyy too tempting to watch him absolutely DESTROY Marlaina and her band of nutjob conservatives in debates and mop the floor with her positions throughout the entire campaign trail and everywhere leading up to it. My vote is for Nenshi, but Pancholi is definitely second.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Weitz

If only that won elections.

The most votes generally wins elections. You cannot be any more precise than that when determining candidates.

Who is going to get the most votes.

Regions matter too. The polls show the NDP is solid in Edmonton and non-existent in rural ridings. Calgary has shown to be a battleground. Well, surprise, our largest potential vote getter is also polling 50% favourable ratings in Calgary!

Excitability is huge here too. An exciting candidate rallies votes.

Nenshi is also a well known centrist candidate. He is not hard lefty the UCP can demonize.

[wireframe]

Nenshi benefits from the George W Bush effect - even the people that disliked him want him back now that they've seen the alternative

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Cappy

I wonder how much of that negative would vote for the NDP anyway.

Nenshi is probably the most well known municipal leader in Alberta since Klein.

I think the NDP has to put the chips on the table next election. Smith has been (predictably) atrocious and again the UCP suffers from putting forth policies that the majority of the province hates. Coupled with a potential economic downturn, they are ripe for unseating.

The NDP will likely not want to put it in the hands of an unknown at this point, and given the political illiteracy of general Albertans, i think a name would do well.

Polarizing political figures are successful in this political climate. An unknown or limp wrist is bound to be forgotten on voting day

I think that a major shortfall of the NDP is assuming their failures are the result of political literacy.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I think that a major shortfall of the NDP is assuming their failures are the result of political literacy.

It certainly doesn't help them when facts matter less than colours to many voters. Pretty uphill battle.

[TheIronMaiden]

They didn't vote for us because they are stupid is not a good political message.

Folks didn't vote for the NDP for
1. anxiety surrounding their policies that relate to O and G
2. a general mistrust of sweeping social cultural changes
3. fatigue with left wing political rhetoric.

If the NDP wants to govern they need to work hard on their PR as it relates to these three subjects.

[Johnny Makarov]

Change your god damn name Rachel!!!.....

I hear Marlene is a good one! lol

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

They didn't vote for us because they are stupid is not a good political message.

Folks didn't vote for the NDP for
1. anxiety surrounding their policies that relate to O and G
2. a general mistrust of sweeping social cultural changes
3. fatigue with left wing political rhetoric.

If the NDP wants to govern they need to work hard on their PR as it relates to these three subjects.

Sure, but you can't escape the reality that it is also true. They have a massive disadvantage compared to any right wing party in Alberta.

[Geraldsh]

Is Nenshi going to run or not? What does he, or the party, gain by him playing coy? I too would like to see Pancholi as leader and Nenshi as advisor if he can’t commit to more.

When Hoffman runs second, who will she throw her weight behind?

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I think that a major shortfall of the NDP is assuming their failures are the result of political literacy.

According to the Poll, 9% of people in Calgary are familiar with the name Don Iveson.

35% of people in Edmonton are familiar with the name Don Iveson.

He was the god damn Mayor of Edmonton!

Political illiteracy isn't being used in my post to call people stupid. It's to show that most Albertans are generally unaware of the political climate in Alberta. And yeah, that extends to Orange = communist mentality that is pervasive in some parts.