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Old 02-13-2024, 12:09 PM   #541
Ashasx
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If a deal around trading a goaltender for a 1st/Holtz or Mercer midseason fell apart because of essentially the value of a 2nd round pick (retention)... Pick up the phone again and work on it.

Nobody would be surprised Markstrom has another off season next year and we're begging to get rid of him.

The fortunes of this team would change dramatically by adding a package anywhere close to that for an asset you thought 8 months ago was a liability.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:13 PM   #542
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If a deal around trading a goaltender for a 1st/Holtz or Mercer midseason fell apart because of essentially the value of a 2nd round pick (retention)... Pick up the phone again and work on it.

Nobody would be surprised Markstrom has another off season next year and we're begging to get rid of him.

The fortunes of this team would change dramatically by adding a package anywhere close to that for an asset you thought 8 months ago was a liability.
It would be a bit disappointing, only because goalies don't have this type of value usually.

You don't get an opportunity like this to trade a 34 goalie having a bounce back season for what is reported to be a pretty nice package.

We just have to trust Conroy. He has done the right thing so far. Not giving away Lindholm got Vancouver to bite and send more our way.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:13 PM   #543
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Occam's razor says the deal fell apart for exactly the reasons Friedman said.

In Conroy's view this is a Vezina calibre goalie, & if he retain for 3 years that increases the price. We want an asset like Mercer/Holtz for the value of Markstrom alone, whatever pick, plus more for the retention and perhaps the cap dump they give back.

In NJ's view they see Markstrom's up and down one year to the next in Calgary, the age and term, and the availability of other goalies, how Vegas won the cup, and expect that retention to be a given in the return they were already offering, not an add, and don't value Markstrom as a Vezina candidate, but more a risk that can give you a .900 sv just as likely as a .920. It's easy to see why it fell apart IMO.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:14 PM   #544
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^ this. I think I disagree if the Flames view is that they have to have their minds blown to trade Markstrom right now. He could easily #### the bed again next season and then we're left with nothing. If you can get a first and a good prospect for him right now, then you absolutely do it.


Edit: referring to AshasX

Last edited by heep223; 02-13-2024 at 12:16 PM.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:20 PM   #545
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^ this. I think I disagree if the Flames view is that they have to have their minds blown to trade Markstrom right now. He could easily #### the bed again next season and then we're left with nothing. If you can get a first and a good prospect for him right now, then you absolutely do it.


Edit: referring to AshasX
True but NJ could be losing out this year and possibly the next 2 on a goalie that can help them win. They are losing out on a year of playoffs with all their young talent, and in a couple seasons have to pay all that talent so will be trading a few of them at that time.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:31 PM   #546
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Spitting Chiclets says they're hearing Hanifinnand Marky to NJ

I'll get Flamed for this but if that lands you unconditional 24 1st and Mercer and one other piece, like Hamenheeho or however the spelling is, you do it.

As long as the Flames get what they need (24 year old RHS center under cost control for the foreseeable future, another 1st.) Then that's that.

I think the Devils get it done. Lots of time to nail it down. Although is suspect they need to get it done sooner than later.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:34 PM   #547
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I don't like retention over the next couple of seasons. If it is just to the end of this season, great. But you never know what the future holds and I would hate to see dead cap in 2025 and 2026 come with opportunity costs that prevent Conroy from making better moves in those seasons.
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Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 02-13-2024 at 12:38 PM.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:35 PM   #548
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retaining for 3 seasons is pretty damn valuable...lets not forget what 6M for 1 season cost
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:36 PM   #549
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I don't like retention over the next couple of seasons. If it is just to the end of this season, great. But you never know what the future holds and I would hate to see dead cap in 2025 and 2026 come with opportunity costs that stop Conroy from making better moves.
The way things are looking, we shouldn't be a cap team for the next few years.
I would take that risk and avoid expensive UFAs...problem solved.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:37 PM   #550
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Markstrom is playing out of his mind right now. It’s fun to watch, and I’m not complaining watching the Flames go on a bit of a run backboned by God more goaltending.

But these magical performances are going to get us the 9th spot and a middling draft pick if we ride out the season.

Or we could capitalize on Markstrom refinding his elite game, and turn it into an attractive assortment of futures, while also making room for Wolf.

Salivating at some of the potential trade proposals being made. Really hoping one comes to fruition here sooner than later.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:38 PM   #551
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The way things are looking, we shouldn't be a cap team for the next few years.
I would take that risk and avoid expensive UFAs...problem solved.
The Flames should be a cap team one way or another

Montreal was over the cap and using LTIR when they took Monahan
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:39 PM   #552
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Conroy statue with a prominent crotch so that it can get rubbed down to a shiny glow by revelers if this trade goes through.

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Old 02-13-2024, 12:40 PM   #553
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retaining for 3 seasons is pretty damn valuable...lets not forget what 6M for 1 season cost
My thought is that retaining for multiple seasons is worth less than the equivalent amount for one season though. As the cap goes up, the value of that retained amount decreases. Similarly, 6 million in one year is a lot more difficult to work around than 3 million over two.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:41 PM   #554
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6 million for one season is worth a first. Look at the Monny trade (what a flop), Marleau trade, etc.

Over multiple year I have no idea what that equates to.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:41 PM   #555
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retaining for 3 seasons is pretty damn valuable...lets not forget what 6M for 1 season cost
Really it's two seasons.

Retention for the remainder of this season doesn't actually bring much extra value...3rd parties have received like a 4th round pick for retaining 50%...to me that is negligible.

I think the calculation for the next two seasons is simple though.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:44 PM   #556
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Is that spitting chiclets note after all this Friedman/Seravelli reporting?

Markstrom 25 %
Hanifin 50 % with extension in place
Taking Vanecek back

That has to be worth a boatload you’d think…
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:44 PM   #557
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I don't think so. Especially if there was a 1st or 2nd attached to it. There aren't many goalie trades where a player like Holtz is coming back.



https://www.reddit.com/r/Flyers/comm..._see_what_the/
Those are two different trades. Just Holtz can be middling and Holtz and a 1st can be fair value. Just Holtz for 7 million in salary retention and Markstrom is a bad return.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:44 PM   #558
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Can we retain the cap hit, but Jersey pays the full salary?

His salary is 8 million this season.

Next season 2 seasons its 2.5 SB and 3.5 million salary each year.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:44 PM   #559
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I don't like retention over the next couple of seasons. If it is just to the end of this season, great. But you never know what the future holds and I would hate to see dead cap in 2025 and 2026 come with opportunity costs that prevent Conroy from making better moves in those seasons.

Now is the time to retain if they're going to do it. Theres big money coming off the books with Kuzemenko, Mangiapane next year. And no real impact player then need to re-up, Shrangovich maybe gets a bit of a raise but nothing major.
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Old 02-13-2024, 12:46 PM   #560
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Can we retain the cap hit, but Jersey pays the full salary?

Officially? No.

Unofficially, I'm sure the owners' accountants coudl come up with something off books just like I'm sure they do for a lot of things.
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