2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Drafted... in the 2nd round.

Also star players not drafted by Calgary: Gio, Mullen, Macdonald, Gilmour, Otto.

Also star players not drafted high: Gaudreau, Fleury, Makarov, Suter.

To be fair, Otto was an undrafted free agent. So Fletcher and crew still identified him as a player.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

That's true, but the 2022, and 2021(after Coronato) drafts look like complete misses at this point.

In contrast, the 2020 draft seems like a home run of a draft with Zary, Poirier, Kuznetsov, Kerins and Solovyov(overager).

With hindsight, Topi Ronni, and William Stromgren seem like pretty bad 2nd round picks.

The Flames were short picks in 2022 so really the 2021 draft was a bad one after the 1st.

But who did well? Arizona, Toronto? It's still early but not alot has come out of the 2021 draft after the 1st round league wide.

Flames seem to get at least 1 guy that is exciting past the 1st almost every year since 2016 when they had one of the best draft years in team history.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Robbob

To be fair, Otto was an undrafted free agent. So Fletcher and crew still identified him as a player.

Yes, and so was Gio. The point is not identifying - it's the high pick star player point I was addressing. We all know the odds change as you go down in the draft or into FAs, but there is deeper gold to be mined.

Most teams have these guys - you need your intended star picks to pan out, but you also need value from those lower picks/trades/FAs. TB had Stamkos and Hedman, but they needed Point and Kucherov.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yes, and so was Gio. The point is not identifying - it's the high pick star player point I was addressing. We all know the odds change as you go down in the draft or into FAs, but there is deeper gold to be mined.

Most teams have these guys - you need your intended star picks to pan out, but you also need value from those lower picks/trades/FAs. TB had Stamkos and Hedman, but they needed Point and Kucherov.

That is something I completely agree with. It is the gems after the first round where cup teams are built. Sure a top 5 pick gives you a foundation, but you need to hit and get lucky on those later picks. When ever CP had the discussions about having a top 5 pick to be a cup winner, I think you can look at all those teams and they will have a home run pick in the later rounds. Kucherov is the best player from that draft, and TB got him in the 3rd. I don't think they are cup champions without Kucherov and Pointe. Same reason why Edmonton failed in their rebuilds, they could never hit after the first overall.

[bluejays]

All this talk about drafting and old draft examples are brought in during a time when the draft wasn’t truly respected or thought as a way to build a team. There were more teams who thought of the draft as “draft schmaft” until the past ten years when considerable resources have been put into scouting and development for everyone.

Anyway, it’s obvious that nowadays each team has a much better understanding of the guys at the top. So missing on someone not developing is as much as a reflection of the organization’s development as much as it’s on the guy drafted. That my view on it. You also have a much better chance of hitting a jackpot at the top of the draft. Where you have to find some diamonds in the rough is after the mid first round. Then surrounding the draftees with good coaching in the minors comes into play. There’s a reason Tampa and Toronto have hit the mark when it’s come to their efficient bringing in of prospects. They have the full support system in place. It’s more than just good scouting.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Given the percentages I don't think there's much point in showing picks that didn't turn out. Second round picks are what 5% likely to have any impact?

I'm suggesting the Flames of late seem to be hitting above league averages.

I don't disagree with you about the Flames hitting above average, especially when we take into account 2015, and 2016. That said, it seemed as though the Flames drafting came back down to earth over the last couple of drafts(which could've been the result of COVID).

---

2-4 players from the 2nd round usually become top players. Another 5-7 become NHL regulars(400+ NHL GP). So the chance of getting a regular NHLer is probably around 25-33%.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

That's true, but the 2022, and 2021(after Coronato) drafts look like complete misses at this point.

In contrast, the 2020 draft seems like a home run of a draft with Zary, Poirier, Kuznetsov, Kerins and Solovyov(overager).

With hindsight, Topi Ronni, and William Stromgren seem like pretty bad 2nd round picks.

Calling them bad this early seems a bit harsh. Stromgren and Ronni were both consensus second round picks in their respective drafts.

Stromgren is 20 years old, in his first AHL season, and playing mostly on the fourth line on a good AHL team. In hindsight, it probably would have been better for the Flames to have him play this season in the CHL as an overager, but players this young can bounce back.


Lets look at two more players from Stromgren's draft:

Samu Tuomaala is six months older than Stromgren and was being called a bust last year for subpar play in the Finnish Liiga, but his development took a massive jump seemingly overnight and he's having a good year in the AHL this season.

Brad Lambert was being called a bust last year for not being able to hack it in the AHL, but his development has also seemingly taken a big leap overnight.



Stromgren is really skilled. It will be concerning if he doesn't show any progression next season, but he's still got time to put it together.

As for Ronni, he's a fourth liner on one of the best teams in the Finnish Liiga and he's dominating the Finnish U20 league. He's doing fine for a D+2 player that projects as a potential two-way or defensive forward in the NHL. Other than the fact that he might never play in the NHL due to the off-ice issue

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I don't disagree with you about the Flames hitting above average, especially when we take into account 2015, and 2016. That said, it seemed as though the Flames drafting came back down to earth over the last couple of drafts(which could've been the result of COVID).

---

2-4 players from the 2nd round usually become top players. Another 5-7 become NHL regulars(400+ NHL GP). So the chance of getting a regular NHLer is probably around 25-33%.

So if you are drafing above average, it's reasonable to assume that in the 2nd round you would get a player with 400+ games once every 4 years? Seems like the Flames could still be above average of late.

Every great drafting team goes a few years where they dont do well in the draft. Seems like 2021 and 2022 were our years. But 2022 we were short picks and Ronni has had off ice issues.

[Tbull8]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Picking late is such a crap shoot. In hindsight, Lazar will be a more productive NHLer than the second pick we gave up for him. Picks are just magic beans.

That pick ended up being Formenton... so you're probably right

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I don't disagree with you about the Flames hitting above average, especially when we take into account 2015, and 2016. That said, it seemed as though the Flames drafting came back down to earth over the last couple of drafts(which could've been the result of COVID).

---

2-4 players from the 2nd round usually become top players. Another 5-7 become NHL regulars(400+ NHL GP). So the chance of getting a regular NHLer is probably around 25-33%.

2-4 players out of the 2nd round being top players is a stretch, probably closer to 1 if that. If you are looking for first pairing, top line, or starting goalie it is definitely closer to 1 and maybe less depending on your criteria for a top player. Going back to 2010 I think the home runs are maybe Kucherov, Demko, Aho, Debrincat, Robertson. Maybe add Faulk, Bertuzzi, Andersson to that list. I think the jury is still out on a lot of players drafted that last few years. If you can hit on a player in the 2nd it does wonders, but saying up to 2-4 per draft are top players, I don't think is the case.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Updated projections for prospects based on draft position using historical data.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1626325906091565056

In other words, you should be picking in the first two rounds of the draft every year because the cumulative benefit is evident.

And once you factor in the lottery odds for the top 3 teams (18.5%, 13.5%, 11.5%), tanking to try and get the first overall in order to get a star makes little to no sense mathematically.

[stemit14]

Would love to see another big trade of a UFA from the flames in the next week. It would be nice to get all the UFA trades done a week or so before the TDL. Would make us worry less about getting the trades across the finish line and would leave time to focus on potentially trading someone that is signed past this season (Markstrom for example).

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.

In other words, you should be picking in the first two rounds of the draft every year because the cumulative benefit is evident.

And once you factor in the lottery odds for the top 3 teams (18.5%, 13.5%, 11.5%), tanking to try and get the first overall in order to get a star makes little to no sense mathematically.

Odds of getting a star drop dramtically past the top 5. If you tank to get 1st overall and miss, you are likely getting a top 5 pick. The worst team in the NHL gets a top 3 even losing in lottery twice.

Picking 6-10 is a good way to stay rebuilding for many years. I have always said this is the worst spot to be in. Stats show picking 11-20 is almost as good so missing the playoff by a few points really isn't that bad of a spot.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Picks are worth more to the Flames right now since they draft well. Yes, obviously the lower you go in the draft, the rare those star players become. If this was the early 2000's, I would hope that the Flames trade as many picks as possible for players. However, the Flames have turned into one of the league's better drafting and development teams, so those picks are worth more. They keep finding guys deep into the draft. We can always play the what if game, but I do wonder what if Treliving was just more patient for a year or two and built through the draft.


At any rate, I do hope that the Flames are able to find an Iginla, or Savard or even a Huselius through various trades. I just think the only way the Flames trade for a prospect that becomes top-end is by the other team screwing up, which is certainly possible. Some prospects are also relatively buried and just need a longer rope with more opportunity to really develop.



I just think that the Flames are great at drafting, and if they use all their picks at the draft, I will be happy too.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Robbob

2-4 players out of the 2nd round being top players is a stretch, probably closer to 1 if that. If you are looking for first pairing, top line, or starting goalie it is definitely closer to 1 and maybe less depending on your criteria for a top player.

That's the thing about it... you're absolutely right, if that's your criteria then it's slightly less then 1 per year by my quick eyeball of past drafts... but that number get's a whole lot larger if you redefine it as Top 6F/4D/1G.

The way I see it in a rebuild you should find your foundational pieces at the top of round 1, you find your complementary pieces in the late 1st/2nd round during your decent through to your ascent, other then some depth pieces if you find anything beyond that you consider it gravy.

I think teams absolutely have to hit on their first rounders. If you're not keeping and hitting on those 1st round picks odds are you're either in trouble or you'll soon be in trouble.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Robbob

2-4 players out of the 2nd round being top players is a stretch, probably closer to 1 if that. If you are looking for first pairing, top line, or starting goalie it is definitely closer to 1 and maybe less depending on your criteria for a top player. Going back to 2010 I think the home runs are maybe Kucherov, Demko, Aho, Debrincat, Robertson. Maybe add Faulk, Bertuzzi, Andersson to that list. I think the jury is still out on a lot of players drafted that last few years. If you can hit on a player in the 2nd it does wonders, but saying up to 2-4 per draft are top players, I don't think is the case.

Here's how I see it, a lot of it is subjective. The 2-4 was my eye test from opening the last couple of drafts.

2018 - Durzi, Marchenko(?), Romanov(?), Bahl(?)
* A bit too early to tell for a few players
2017 - Robertson
2016 - DeBrincat, Kryou, Hronek, Hart
2015 - Aho, Hintz, Andersson, Dunn
2014 - Montour, Demko
2013 - Jarry, Lehkonen(?)
2012 - N/A
2011 - Saad, Kucherov, Karlsson, Gibson(?)
2010 - Toffoli

HMs: Bertuzzi, Lindgren, Dvorak, M. Pettersson, Compher, Girard, Sprong, B. Jenner, Zucker, Faulk

Goalies(voodoo): Nedeljkovic, Vancek, Gustavsson

So we can change it to 1-4, if you'd like, that said I don't think I was off by too much. Also, the discussion itself started with 5% impact players, so in my head I wrote impact players instead of top players.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Odds of getting a star drop dramtically past the top 5. If you tank to get 1st overall and miss, you are likely getting a top 5 pick. The worst team in the NHL gets a top 3 even losing in lottery twice.

Picking 6-10 is a good way to stay rebuilding for many years. I have always said this is the worst spot to be in. Stats show picking 11-20 is almost as good so missing the playoff by a few points really isn't that bad of a spot.

Once you take into account the chance of winning the lottery, the net percent chance of getting a star gets pretty even near the top.

[dino7c]

Treliving trending lol, and its not good

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

What fringe treliving piece can we throw in with Tanev to get that 1st?

[dammage79]

Incarcerated Bob intimated that the Leafs are working with a Canadian western conference team in the last 24 hours to get something done.

Everyone and their dog seems to think it's for Tanev and leafs fans are fretting Liljegren is going the other way