Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Ozy_Flame]

Man, some of you have short memories. The NDP was within striking distance in 2023 without any name change, color change, or leader change. Let that sit for a second about the desire for a centrist party. And how much of the urban vote the NDP has captured.

All of those aforementioned changes are low-hanging fruit for the next election.

[Slava]

The thing that seems to be lost here is that they don't need to swing every would-be UPC voter (and they're never going to). But if you change the name and it gets you like 5-7% because either (A) it distances you from the federal party, (B) it distances you from other provincial parties or (C) people are too dumb to know it's the same people, what does it matter?

I don't understand the attachment to the name though. It's just funny, because they've had the moniker "new" since the early 1960's and at some point you would think that they would be pragmatic enough to drop it.

[Ozy_Flame]

One thing I will add, this growing urban/rural divide is indicative of a need for electoral reform. Cities are just going to grow in size and demographics as society progressively changes and I believe it's important to have a voting system that ensures all votes count, not just the minimum threshold. This is true on both the provincial and the federal level.

[Jimmy Stang]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Man, some of you have short memories. The NDP was within striking distance in 2023 without any name change, color change, or leader change. Let that sit for a second about the desire for a centrist party. And how much of the urban vote the NDP has captured.

All of those aforementioned changes are low-hanging fruit for the next election.

The Alberta NDP are a centrist party though. Probably even centre-right, in the same ballpark as the Lougheed-era PCs, one could argue. It is just that the UCP has pulled the spectrum so far to the right that even the centre is miles away from them. They don't resemble the federal NDP at all, so why share branding with them?

People don't vote for the ANDP because they want federal NDP-style policies. They vote for them because they are, quite frankly, the closest thing to a moderate, centrist option. (Alberta Party doesn't count until they get themselves sorted out, which is unlikely.)

How many times have you heard people say that they wish they have a centrist option in Alberta? It exists, but it wears orange, and that can't compute with a lot of voters (which says a lot, I know).

[Ozy_Flame]

They are the centrist option. And they came close without a conservative vote split, and without shedding the NDP brand.

Their issue is they didn't get enough moderates over the fence. Getting rid of their NDP image is the low-hanging fruit to push them even closer. Political wonks think it won't matter, but it absolutely does to the average voter, especially in Alberta.

[Jimmy Stang]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

They are the centrist option. And they came close without a conservative vote split, and without shedding the NDP brand.

Their issue is they didn't get enough moderates over the fence. Getting rid of their NDP image is the low-hanging fruit to push them even closer. Political wonks think it won't matter, but it absolutely does to the average voter, especially in Alberta.

We are in agreement. I read your line of "low hanging fruit" as suggesting that re-branding would be easy pickings for the UCP and the inevitable "wolf in sheep's clothing", "lipstick on a pig" arguments. But I see what you are saying now.

More coffee needed this morning.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Man, some of you have short memories. The NDP was within striking distance in 2023 without any name change, color change, or leader change. Let that sit for a second about the desire for a centrist party. And how much of the urban vote the NDP has captured.

All of those aforementioned changes are low-hanging fruit for the next election.

Sure, but they also had a strong leader going against a mental invalid. If voters couldn't see the obvious choice and the potential for disaster in Smith, well, I'm not sure how a name and colour change is going to alter that. Conservative voters have voted the same forever, and will continue to do that. Logic, common sense and, I dunno, having a brain don't really play into this. Your level of cynicism isn't aligned with reality, you need to go waaay deeper to get there.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Nope, but it was presented as evidence that they couldn't win no matter what.

It's like the Simpson's meme: "we've tried nothing - and we're all out of ideas!"

The ANDP has polling that their name is hurting them, and Notley refused to change it out of deference to her father. IMO, that's a bad reason for the rest of us to get stuck with Smith.

Doubling down eh bizaro?

I don’t doubt that there are people, probably even a lot of people, in this province who are naive enough to vote for a party based simply on their name but personally I doubt that they would make up a large enough voting block to have shifted the last election in favour of the NDP.

This name change for the win theory also doesn’t take into consideration that there are actually some ANDP supporters who believe it or not vote for them because they actually think they are pushing for what the federal party wants and as ridiculous as it may sound they would likely vote elsewhere in protest if they changed their name.

In the polling you’re referencing were people specifically asked whether they would vote for the exact same party with the exact same people and policies if it were simply under a different name? (I’m honestly asking because I have no idea which polling you’re referencing)

[Jimmy Stang]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Sure, but they also had a strong leader going against a mental invalid. If voters couldn't see the obvious choice and the potential for disaster in Smith, well, I'm not sure how a name and colour change is going to alter that. Conservative voters have voted the same forever, and will continue to do that. Logic, common sense and, I dunno, having a brain don't really play into this. Your level of cynicism isn't aligned with reality, you need to go waaay deeper to get there.

I'm not so sure. I have someone close to me who absolutely despises Trudeau (OK - many do, but to the point of obsession, regardless of policy, and blames literally everything on him), occasionally slips in conspiracy references like the WEF into debates, lots of "both sides" arguments and false equivalency, plus a few other popular right wing talking points. Perfectly reasonable guy in most ways, and definitely not "hard right", but I see many Albertans with similar casual views about politics.

He voted NDP. And it wasn't even a hard choice for him. I'd like to think that I helped him realize that the UCP are not even remotely similar to the Lougheed conservatives, or even those of Klein, or even those of Kenney (but we're getting a lot closer). Party unification, both provincially and federally, is an obvious point of divergence. Ultimately he came to his own conclusions and voted accordingly.

But I hear it again and again - "I don't like the UCP, but I just can't bring myself to vote for the NDP", "I wish that there was a centrist option, not just left and right", "The Alberta NDP is affiliated to the federal NDP" (they are, technically, but policies are not aligned, thankfully), etc.

I genuinely feel that, although Albertans are definitely more conservative than other parts of Canada, the UCP is actual quite a few notches farther to the right than even the average Albertan conservative. A lot of them enable Smith, the UCP, etc. because of an incorrect perception that the NDP are like the federal ones, they are "far left", etc. when it just isn't true. Why share the branding?

[D as in David]

Just a reminder that the UCP won 6 ridings (Calgary North, Calgary Northwest, Calgary Bow, Calgary Cross, Calgary East, and Lethbridge East) by a total of just over 2,600 votes. 1,300 voters switching their votes would have resulted in a NDP victory. Of course, there were some close wins for the NDP, as well, like in Calgary Glenmore and Calgary Acadia.

I think the thing that kept the NDP from winning was that DS didn't show her bat####-crazy leanings during the debate.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Doubling down eh bizaro?

I don’t doubt that there are people, probably even a lot of people, in this province who are naive enough to vote for a party based simply on their name but personally I doubt that they would make up a large enough voting block to have shifted the last election in favour of the NDP.

This name change for the win theory also doesn’t take into consideration that there are actually some ANDP supporters who believe it or not vote for them because they actually think they are pushing for what the federal party wants and as ridiculous as it may sound they would likely vote elsewhere in protest if they changed their name.

In the polling you’re referencing were people specifically asked whether they would vote for the exact same party with the exact same people and policies if it were simply under a different name? (I’m honestly asking because I have no idea which polling you’re referencing)

If Notley would have called out Singh for his anti-oil stance and then told the federal NDP to eff off into the sun she would be premier right now. and not a 2 time loser.

[powderjunkie]

I don't think a name change would have made a difference in the last election, but 2-3 elections after a name change it may pay dividends. But it also isn't a change without risk involved.

It's easy to look at the recent harm caused from association with the federal party, but there is also a flip side where the federal orange wave in 2011 under Layton probably did a lot to help consolidate the opposition vote under the ANDP.

ANDP Seats won from 1993 to 2012: 0 2 2 4 2 4 (8-11% popular)
ALib Seats won from 1993 to 2012: 32 18 7 16 5 9 (26-39.7% popular until 2012 when it dropped to 9.9%)


Of course undercutting this theory is the fact that Alberta 2012 election came after 2011 and before 2015...though 2012 was a race between PC (popular 44%) and Wild Rose (34%), so I suspect a lot of voters went PC to avoid the Lake of Fire.

There were 22 different polls in the month preceding that election - all 22 had the Wild Rose leading (nearly always over 40%) and the PCs generally in the low 30s%.

Scroll down to Opinion Polls heading - it's actually shocking:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_A...neral_election

[GGG]

I think the more important question around a name change is if the ANDP leave the feds and change the name would the federal NDP or another left wing party be started.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

If Notley would have called out Singh for his anti-oil stance and then told the federal NDP to eff off into the sun she would be premier right now. and not a 2 time loser.

What are the lotto numbers this week?

[PsYcNeT]

Lmao this province, political sphere and media are all clowns in a ridiculous circus.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1754897819792527600

https://twitter.com/user/status/1754930847545778432

Absolute morons constantly spreading lies.

[Fuzz]

The sketchy poll was probably enough to convince PP that he could come out of the shadows in support of this trash.

"He should let parents raise kids and let provinces run schools and hospitals," he said.


When asked by a reporter if the policies could actually limit the rights of parents who support their child's pursuit of a gender transition, Poilievre said, "No."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/pie...nder-1.7106283


He's also misinformed, or lying. Either way, he's clearly unfit to be Prime Minister. And now he has chosen to wear the same stink as Smith.

[The Fonz]

edit: nvm, I'm dumb

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

One thing I will add, this growing urban/rural divide is indicative of a need for electoral reform. Cities are just going to grow in size and demographics as society progressively changes and I believe it's important to have a voting system that ensures all votes count, not just the minimum threshold. This is true on both the provincial and the federal level.

Is the weight of the rural riding votes that much heavier? Do you have stats for this, or do you just want their votes to count less because you have different priorities?

[Fuzz]

Riding populations are here:
https://open.alberta.ca/opendata/pro...es-census-2021


The spreadsheet is a mess to actually work with

[GGG]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Is the weight of the rural riding votes that much heavier? Do you have stats for this, or do you just want their votes to count less because you have different priorities?

It’s more of a used to be true thing. The latest restructure of the boundaries solved much of the imbalance

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...redistribution.

But also as time goes on between redistribution cities grow faster