The Monahan watch: Trade Deadline 2024

[CalgaryFan1988]

I can see a team acquiring him for depth on a playoff run and a 1st is definitely not out of the question.

[Owen15]

How does the pick we gave up to Montreal work? I know there’s a lot of conditions.

[TheIronMaiden]

Montreal Canadiens Acquire:

Sean Monahan
2025 1st round pick (CGY) [Conditional]*
*Conditions: 1. If CGY’s 2024 1st round pick is between 20 and 32, MTL can take that pick instead. Result: TBD

Scenario: In the event CGY receives FLA’s 2025 1st round pick:
1. If both CGY AND FLA’s picks are NOT top 10, MTL will receive the better of the CGY and FLA 2025 1st round picks. Result: TBD

2. If CGY’s pick is top 10, AND FLA’s pick is NOT top 10, MTL receives FLA’s pick. Result: TBD


Scenario: In the event CGY does NOT receive FLA’s 1st round pick:

Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is NOT top 10
1. MTL will receive the CGY pick, and
2. If FLA’s pick is not top 10, is a better pick than CGY’s, and was transferred to another team due to prior conditions, MTL will also receive CGY’s 2025 4th round pick.
Result: TBD

Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is top 10:
1. If CGY’s pick is 1st overall, MTL will receive CGY’s 2025 3rd, and the better of CGY and FLA’s 2026 1st round pick. Result: TBD
2. If CGY’s pick is 2nd to 10th, MTL receives CGY’s 2025 1st round pick. Result: TBD

[Jiri Hrdina]

Helpful article

https://thewincolumn.ca/2023/11/14/a...with-diagrams/

[FanIn80]

Well this sucks. How am I supposed to cheer for Monny to win the Cup now? Fk WPG.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Well this sucks. How am I supposed to cheer for Monny to win the Cup now? Fk WPG.

How do you hate Winnipeg?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

As nice as a year as he's having, Monahan isn't returning a 1st round pick at this point in his career. I'm thinking a 2nd at most or a combination of lower end prospects.

^Don't listen to this ####ing idiot.

[Mean Mr. Mustard]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Montreal Canadiens Acquire:

Sean Monahan
2025 1st round pick (CGY) [Conditional]...

Does this incentivize Calgary to make trades earlier in order to drop down the standings if they are going to sell - the worst case scenario would be for the Flames to have a pick in the 11-15 range and have the Canadiens get that pick rather than the Panthers pick which could conceivably be around 26-31. Imagine at the end of the year the Flames selected 31st and 32nd overall while rebuilding. Yikes.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mean Mr. Mustard

Does this incentivize Calgary to make trades earlier in order to drop down the standings if they are going to sell - the worst case scenario would be for the Flames to have a pick in the 11-15 range and have the Canadiens get that pick rather than the Panthers pick which could conceivably be around 26-31. Imagine at the end of the year the Flames selected 31st and 32nd overall while rebuilding. Yikes.

For this year, the Flames are incentivized to drop. The concern comes next year.

The likely scenarios:

1) FLA sends this year's pick to PHI (virtually certain) therefore CGY gets FLA's 25 pick
2) That being the case, MTL gets the better of the CGY pick or the FLA pick (probably CGY)

So if the Flames do worse than FLA in 25, MTL gets CGY's pick, so teh Flames have no incentive to tank. And if the Flames really tank, all the way down to 2nd overall, MTL still gets their pick.

So, they need to suck this year, and then not suck next year.

[Johnny Makarov]

This trade is great for the Flames. It has driven up the value for Hanifin,Tanev, and Markstrom.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So if the Flames do worse than FLA in 25, MTL gets CGY's pick, so teh Flames have no incentive to tank. And if the Flames really tank, all the way down to 2nd overall, MTL still gets their pick.

Nope. Montreal does not get the Flames' 2025 1st if it is in the top 10, unless Florida's 1st is also in the top 10.

Best scenario, assuming the Flames are out of it next season, is that Florida has a good year, and the Flames have a top-10 pick. Then Montreal will have to settle for the Florida 1st. I'm sure they can find someone to play a tiny violin for them.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For this year, the Flames are incentivized to drop. The concern comes next year.

So, they need to suck this year, and then not suck next year.

Assuming the Flames don't think Florida is somehow getting a top ten pick next year than the Flames just want to really suck. The most likely crappy situation is the Flames end up with a pick in the 11-15 range and the Panthers end up with a pick in the 25+ range.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For this year, the Flames are incentivized to drop. The concern comes next year.

The likely scenarios:

1) FLA sends this year's pick to PHI (virtually certain) therefore CGY gets FLA's 25 pick
2) That being the case, MTL gets the better of the CGY pick or the FLA pick (probably CGY)

So if the Flames do worse than FLA in 25, MTL gets CGY's pick, so teh Flames have no incentive to tank. And if the Flames really tank, all the way down to 2nd overall, MTL still gets their pick.

So, they need to suck this year, and then not suck next year.

No I think this is wrong.

Here is a simple way of looking at it. We will assume it's the 2025 Florida pick moving to the Flames, as that's a safe bet.

If both the Flames and Panthers picks are out of the top 10, Florida gets the better of them.
If Calgary's pick is top 10 and Florida's is not, Montreal gets the Florida pick.

What I don't understand is what happens if both Calgary and Flroida's 2025 picks are the top 10 - but that's a pretty unlikely scenario. But still surprised I can't find what happens in that event.

Everything gets less risky for the Flames once the 2024 Florida 1st goes to Philly so the 2025 1st is set to go to Calgary.

Once that happens, the ideal scenario (from a pick POV) is Calgary finishes with a top 10 pick in 2025. Then they keep it. The worst scenario is that both Florida and Calgary have picks outside the top 10, in which case Florida could get the 11th pick (for example) and Calgary the 25th (for example). That would suck.

But the chances of the Flames losing a top 10 pick are pretty remote.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

No I think this is wrong.

Here is a simple way of looking at it. We will assume it's the 2025 Florida pick moving to the Flames, as that's a safe bet.

If both the Flames and Panthers picks are out of the top 10, Florida gets the better of them.
If Calgary's pick is top 10 and Florida's is not, Montreal gets the Florida pick.

What I don't understand is what happens if both Calgary and Flroida's 2025 picks are the top 10 - but that's a pretty unlikely scenario. But still surprised I can't find what happens in that event.

Everything gets less risky for the Flames once the 2024 Florida 1st goes to Philly so the 2025 1st is set to go to Calgary.

Once that happens, the ideal scenario (from a pick POV) is Calgary finishes with a top 10 pick in 2025. Then they keep it. The worst scenario is that both Florida and Calgary have picks outside the top 10, in which case Florida could get the 11th pick (for example) and Calgary the 25th (for example). That would suck.

But the chances of the Flames losing a top 10 pick are pretty remote.

Yeah when have any of Brad's deals turned out to be the worst imaginable outcome

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by Owen15

How does the pick we gave up to Montreal work? I know there’s a lot of conditions.

Let's make this as simple as anyone can put it - Habs will get Calgary's 1st round pick that's not top 10 protected whenever Montreal decides it's fit for them to do so within the next year or two. It's pretty much Tre giving away the Flames soul to the devil and the devil himself will choose to do whatever the deed suits him best.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

What I don't understand is what happens if both Calgary and Flroida's 2025 picks are the top 10 - but that's a pretty unlikely scenario. But still surprised I can't find what happens in that event.

If Florida's pick in 2025 is top-10, then Florida keeps that pick and the Flames get Florida's 1st in 2026. This was in the conditions of the Tkachuk trade, which may be why you're having trouble finding it.

Source: https://puckpedia.com/trade/585

In that case, the Flames send their 1st in 2025 to Montreal, unless it is 1st overall.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

If Florida's pick in 2025 is top-10, then Florida keeps that pick and the Flames get Florida's 1st in 2026. This was in the conditions of the Tkachuk trade, which may be why you're having trouble finding it.

Source: https://puckpedia.com/trade/585

In that case, the Flames send their 1st in 2025 to Montreal, unless it is 1st overall.

Right thanks
So we are all panther fans for this year and next
(Seems like many were anyways already)

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Let's make this as simple as anyone can put it - Habs will get Calgary's 1st round pick that's not top 10 protected whenever Montreal decides it's fit for them to do so within the next year or two. It's pretty much Tre giving away the Flames soul to the devil and the devil himself will choose to do whatever the deed suits him best.

That’s not how it works at all lol.

[RedHawk12]

For sake of simplicity, i think the most likely is the Flames 2025 pick is somewhere around 11-15 and we give it up to Montreal. Florida's 2025 pick will be around 25ish and we get to keep that.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by RedHawk12

For sake of simplicity, i think the most likely is the Flames 2025 pick is somewhere around 11-15 and we give it up to Montreal. Florida's 2025 pick will be around 25ish and we get to keep that.

Nah, we will be around 5-7ish, and Florida will be comfortably in a playoff spot. Montreal will get Floridas 25ish pick and we keep ours.

I don't see any way our team next year is going to be better with selling our UFA's this year.

Imagine this team without 3 of Lindholm, Tanev, Hanifin and Markstrom. We are talking bottom 5.