Let's talk about Cryptocurrencies

[dino7c]

Notice how nobody answered my question

when do you guys admit defeat? 5 years? 10 years? never..."unsustainable, damn you dino7c on your death beds"

we are 7 years deep into this thread, Crypto craze was almost done back then according to you know who

The beauty of this thread is I know how it will age...you guys just keep digging deeper and deeper. You are using my $100k as an example of an outlandish prediction, trust me that will look stupid over the years.

When BTC is $200k we can compare my $100k prediction that was late to your $3000 peak bubble.

Spoiler!

I Win

[zamler]

Calling people that have made 100's of thousands on crypto illiterate fanboys, I don't know what to say at this point.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by zamler

Calling people that have made 100's of thousands on crypto illiterate fanboys, I don't know what to say at this point.

Point proven. I didn’t call people who made hundreds of thousands on crypto illiterate fanboys. I called BTC fanboys illiterate.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Point proven. I didn’t call people who made hundreds of thousands on crypto illiterate fanboys. I called BTC fanboys illiterate.

That's how I made my money.

[afc wimbledon]

Personally I suspect BTC has enough utility it won't disappear but it will end up a stable around 20 to 30,000 at that point it will just be a currency, no one will invest in it or mine it, the wild swings will disappear

[PepsiFree]

Dino, I appreciate you in general, but when I’m scrolling the posts and it becomes hard to tell whether you posted something or zamler posted it without checking the name/avatar on the side, you gotta know your tact is off. That’s not a guy you want to debase yourself down to the level of.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by zamler

Well then you're just better than the rest of us aren't you.

Thanks for recognizing it.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by dino7c

more like won't happen because you have never made bank on anything...your 9-5 financial planner won't have any of that

The funny thing is, you'd be way ahead if you'd pivoted to more "boring" investments a few years ago. If you have 11 Bitcoin, that's worth $580K CAD today. If you had sold that on the big run up 3 years ago at ~$70K CAD and simply bought an S&P 500 ETF, you'd have about $1.1M CAD right now.

Hell, even someone who sold for ~$20K 6 years ago in the 2017/18 peak and put that money into the NASDAQ would be in exactly the same spot today in CAD.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by opendoor

The funny thing is, you'd be way ahead if you'd pivoted to more "boring" investments a few years ago. If you have 11 Bitcoin, that's worth $580K CAD today. If you had sold that on the big run up 3 years ago at ~$70K CAD and simply bought an S&P 500 ETF, you'd have about $1.1M CAD right now.

Hell, even someone who sold for ~$20K 6 years ago in the 2017/18 peak and put that money into the NASDAQ would be in exactly the same spot today in CAD.

When I grow up, I want to learn to present positions as informed, fact-based, and respectful as opendoor.

Whoever you are, you are the type of person I wish thrived in the political system. But given the current world, that would just be such an utter waste of what you have to offer the world. Seriously curious about your career.

[zamler]

deleted

[zamler]

Originally Posted by opendoor

The funny thing is, you'd be way ahead if you'd pivoted to more "boring" investments a few years ago. If you have 11 Bitcoin, that's worth $580K CAD today. If you had sold that on the big run up 3 years ago at ~$70K CAD and simply bought an S&P 500 ETF, you'd have about $1.1M CAD right now.

Hell, even someone who sold for ~$20K 6 years ago in the 2017/18 peak and put that money into the NASDAQ would be in exactly the same spot today in CAD.

I thought about this for a bit. Since you knew for sure in 2021 what the S&P would do, how much did you invest? There is zero chance you didn't, because you knew. You'd be a complete fool not to. Also how did you know BTC at ~$70K CAD was the peak?

And you're assuming the $580K magically exists.

[Tiger]

Originally Posted by zamler

I thought about this for a bit. Since you knew for sure in 2021 what the S&P would do, how much did you invest? There is zero chance you didn't, because you knew. You'd be a complete fool not to. Also how did you know BTC at ~$70K CAD was the peak?

And you're assuming the $580K magically exists.

actually at the time there was the problems with regulation in the states and the lawsuit of ripple. Also tons of fear of china blocking BTC and stopping mining which was true. It was fairly obvious what would occur short term. Also the same thing that everyone says now, "look at the normal cycle at the halfing events". Well it was at around its normal cycle time to go down. So you might not of picked the peak exactly there was a lot of downward pressure at the time.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by opendoor

The funny thing is, you'd be way ahead if you'd pivoted to more "boring" investments a few years ago. If you have 11 Bitcoin, that's worth $580K CAD today. If you had sold that on the big run up 3 years ago at ~$70K CAD and simply bought an S&P 500 ETF, you'd have about $1.1M CAD right now.

Hell, even someone who sold for ~$20K 6 years ago in the 2017/18 peak and put that money into the NASDAQ would be in exactly the same spot today in CAD.

I have 10 and as I have said the BTC cycle is something I think the price will more or less follow. BTC is still "cheap" IMO. This is a LONG TERM play for me. You say "big run up" like it will be the all time high forever, I see 200k-300k in the not too distant future.

I have also said no matter how strong you feel don't have all your eggs in one basket...I do own other assets. I was an early buyer of all big tech, apple, google, Tesla (sold), Nvidia, ect. and Oil/gas The thing that is not for me is huge market funds with hundreds of stocks, too many dogs for me.

Also a day trader of Crypto, which has allowed me to "retire" in my early 40s though I suppose posting on CP and market analysis is a bit of a job.


Honestly we know where everyone stands...not point in fighting over the same points. Lets see the price in may, 2025, 2030 ect. Then we will see who did what. I mean with hindsight it's easy to lay out the perfect plan that would have made more money...we would all be billionaires if it was that easy. I called my shot in this thread and have actually done it...so maybe I am up 500k and not 1M

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by zamler

I thought about this for a bit. Since you knew for sure in 2021 what the S&P would do, how much did you invest? There is zero chance you didn't, because you knew. You'd be a complete fool not to. Also how did you know BTC at ~$70K CAD was the peak?

And you're assuming the $580K magically exists.

I didn't know, that's the point. So I just kept my normal investments and added to them regularly like I always do. But I'm not bragging about my ability to beat the market, disparaging investing in certain asset classes, and saying people should learn from me.

Someone holding the right DWAC options over the last few days could have turned $10K into about $1M, but does that mean they have any real insight to offer or that their strategy is repeatable or useful? No, they just made the right decision at the right time. And a bunch of people who made similar bets over the last couple of years would have lost their money.

When people get a great return off of something, they tend to view it as a sort of reverse sunk cost fallacy. Because they are essentially guaranteed a profit regardless of what the price does, they get complacent. But that's not the way to view an investment. In order to not sell something, you have to look at it as something you'd buy today if you just had the cash. I guess if you're confident that Bitcoin will outperform every other asset class going forward, then fair enough. But personally I make sure I'm diversified enough to protect myself in the event that I'm wrong.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I didn't know, that's the point. So I just kept my normal investments and added to them regularly like I always do. But I'm not bragging about my ability to beat the market, disparaging investing in certain asset classes, and saying people should learn from me.

Someone holding the right DWAC options over the last few days could have turned $10K into about $1M, but does that mean they have any real insight to offer or that their strategy is repeatable or useful? No, they just made the right decision at the right time. And a bunch of people who made similar bets over the last couple of years would have lost their money.

When people get a great return off of something, they tend to view it as a sort of reverse sunk cost fallacy. Because they are essentially guaranteed a profit regardless of what the price does, they get complacent. But that's not the way to view an investment. In order to not sell something, you have to look at it as something you'd buy today if you just had the cash.

You sharply criticized Dino for not using a 20/20 hindsight investment strategy. That's your entire post, if he would been smart and done X would be further ahead. I think about IF quite a bit, but you can only move forward. I will never, ever come down on someone for not buying X stock in hindsight, well except maybe myself.

Look at this response.

Originally Posted by Bill Bumface

When I grow up, I want to learn to present positions as informed, fact-based, and respectful as opendoor.

Fact based? HINDSIGHT based, everyone is a pro at that.

Originally Posted by opendoor

I guess if you're confident that Bitcoin will outperform every other asset class going forward, then fair enough. But personally I make sure I'm diversified enough to protect myself in the event that I'm wrong.

Define confidence. I use conviction, which I get from thinking about the future and what companies fit into that future. It's not perfect, it can horribly wrong.

If you please, name 3 stocks you currently own.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by zamler

You sharply criticized Dino for not using a 20/20 hindsight investment strategy. That's your entire post, if he would been smart and done X would be further ahead. I think about IF quite a bit, but you can only move forward. I will never, ever come down on someone for not buying X stock in hindsight, well except maybe myself.

I didn't criticize him at all, let alone sharply. He's obviously done well for himself. I was just pointing out that the vast majority of his BTC gains happened years ago, and over a few longer time periods, even boring old index funds have performed similarly. Now that may change, and BTC may go to the stratosphere, and then he'll be proven right by continuing to hold.

Define confidence. I use conviction, which I get from thinking about the future and what companies fit into that future. It's not perfect, it can horribly wrong.

If you please, name 3 stocks you currently own.

Most of my holdings are just S&P and NASDAQ ETFs with some non-US stuff for diversification. In term of individual companies, my top 3 holdings are:

Microsoft (bought after that idiot Ballmer left and have added over time)
Costco
Apple

I'm a little more skeptical about Apple recently though, so I might pare that down. And I've also had some losers in there, particularly Canadian companies.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I didn't criticize him at all, let alone sharply.

It comes across that way. If I told you, well great you made money but IF you would have done this you would have done even better. That's not fair because you have the benefit of knowing what happened.

He's obviously done well for himself. I was just pointing out that the vast majority of his BTC gains happened years ago, and over a few longer time periods, even boring old index funds have performed similarly. Now that may change, and BTC may go to the stratosphere, and then he'll be proven right by continuing to hold.

What time horizon? In 5 years BTC saw a 10x bump the further back you go in time the better BTC looks. Over 10 years it went up something like 100x.

On Apple, I keep asking myself how high can their market cap go?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by zamler

It comes across that way. If I told you, well great you made money but IF you would have done this you would have done even better. That's not fair because you have the benefit of knowing what happened.

Sure, it was a little snarky, but so was the post I was responding to which basically characterized equity investing as handing your money over to a high-fee financial planner.

What time horizon? In 5 years BTC saw a 10x bump the further back you go in time the better BTC looks. Over 10 years it went up something like 100x.

Yeah, BTC obviously beats almost anything if you go back far enough. But my point was that since 2021 it has largely been flat (and has dropped in value in real terms). Obviously it's very volatile, so there's still lots of money to be made if you time it right, even if the price doesn't appreciate.

And maybe it'll break out higher and surpass its prior peaks; gold is about as mature an investment that exists and it has seen huge increases in the last 25 years. So it's not out of the realm of possibility that Bitcoin could do the same. But no one really knows, and as the Bitcoin market matures, inefficiencies in its valuation are going to be harder to exploit.

On Apple, I keep asking myself how high can their market cap go?

My problem is, every time I've been skeptical about their growth potential, they've proven me wrong so it's hard to sell. Luckily I've still held on, but I agree. If it were to perform the next 5 years like it did that last 5, that's a ~$14T market cap. That doesn't seem possible barring insane currency devaluation or something like that.

[zamler]

Originally Posted by opendoor

But my point was that since 2021 it has largely been flat

TSLA is about the same price it was 3 years ago, or a bit down. That doesn't mean I sell all of it and call it a day. Every year since I can remember, almost all experts said the stock had a sell rating.

A good friend is a chartered accountant I asked her more many clients made money in the markets, including crypto. The answer was zero. This is out of hundreds of tax returns. Most if not all received financial advice, they didn't pick themselves.

Investing is hard, that's why when I see someone that did well I listen. Carefully. Mocking them and telling them they did it all wrong and should have done something else is a bad look.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by zamler

TSLA is about the same price it was 3 years ago, or a bit down. That doesn't mean I sell all of it and call it a day. Every year since I can remember, almost all experts said the stock had a sell rating.

A good friend is a chartered accountant I asked her more many clients made money in the markets, including crypto. The answer was zero. This is out of hundreds of tax returns. Most if not all received financial advice, they didn't pick themselves.

Investing is hard, that's why when I see someone that did well I listen. Carefully. Mocking them and telling them they did it all wrong and should have done something else is a bad look.

That seems odd, but I also assume she isn't looking at their TFSA or RRSP earnings. But even then, hundreds of returns and no one made money? I'm skeptical.