Flames' system, what's working and what isn't

[gvitaly]

I saw JFresh's analytics round up posted on X(twitter) today. I was surprised to find out that the Flames were 8th in the league in Goals Differential Above Expected.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1749094133786955892

That's attributed to both our goaltending(11th), and our finishing(13th) being in the top half of the league.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1749094069865771323

https://twitter.com/user/status/1749093924314988975

It sounds pretty good, but it outlines that both our defense(24th), and our offense(25th) are pretty bad.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1749093750482022647

https://twitter.com/user/status/1749093528464994706

All in all, we're 23rd in the league in xG%. Which is a far cry from the Sutter days when we finished 3rd.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1749093441248641374

Our xGoals differential has been in a free fall ever since the Gilbert injury. Surprisingly, the Bump you see in December is right after the Zadorov trade.



Are the Flames defensive issues as simple as the 3rd pairing being exposed? I think it's a part of the problem, but the team has been over reliant on Markstrom to win it games.



When I look at the shot heat maps(stole them from Cheese's GDT), I see a stark difference in shots right in front of the net. Is it just the unwillingness of our forwards to drive the net? Or the inability to get them the puck in front? The same question applies to our D. Why do our opponents get more point-blank shots against the Flames, on average, compared to the rest of the league.

I'm not trying to take a shot at Huska or the system, because I do like that the Flames are preventing most of the high danger passes, and seem to run around less in their own zone thanks to switching to zone defense. That said, what do you think is the issue? Is it personnel? Do we need better D in the top 4? Is it the bottom pairing sinking the ship? Maybe the centers aren't doing enough? Or are our wingers missing assignments?

Anyway, What do you think the problem is? Aside from simply a lack of skill, and how can it be fixed, both on offense, and D. Also, what things do you like this year compared to last year both in terms of offense and D?

[CSharp]

Too much stats. Just watch the game and you'll see they're soft defensively in their own zones. 2nd periods are almost like their worst enemy. Also, their PP sucks 95% of this season as they're just passing the puck around the perimeter and nothing gets through but everything gets out.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Hate to be simplistic about it, but it’s just not a very good team. Badly lacking elite talent everywhere except in net this year. If anything they’re overachieving, imo.

[DoubleK]

It's surprising to see the fall off in the graph.

If anything I would have said they are playing better lately.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

It's surprising to see the fall off in the graph.

If anything I would have said they are playing better lately.

The illusion that good goaltending provides. Good goaltending papers over a lot of team issues, including an inability to drive play.

[gvitaly]

^ The intention wasn't to put too many stats, but to start the discussion.

Those stats were for 5 on 5, so we're essentially the 24th best D, and 25th best O, at preventing and generating chances respectively.

Okay, so how would you fix the 'soft defensive' play?

In the game against the Oilers, the stretch passes in the 1st were an issue. They resulted in the D backing up too much from the blue-line, so the Oilers could enter the zone with speed.

I thought they had a really solid 1st against the Leafs, but the 3rd pairing and the man advantage(both 6 on 5, and 4 on 3) hurt them. After that, the Flames were trying to press, which resulted in the Leafs having more chances against the Flames off the rush, including a Marner breakaway(stretch pass).

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Hate to be simplistic about it, but it’s just not a very good team. Badly lacking elite talent everywhere except in net this year. If anything they’re overachieving, imo.

That they were. The team thankfully seems to be course correcting itself to ensure that it makes the proper moves that it needs to do by the deadline, and be future oriented with any further transactions.

I'm patient, and have faith Conroy is waiting for the best possible deal for the players that are available, but it does make pulling the trigger a little bit more challenging if the Flames are right on the playoff bubble come the deadline. If the Flames are a bit more distant from it, that the likelihood of qualifying is fairly low, then they definitely should be heavy sellers, and it might open up a few more players to trade; such as Markstrom.

[dissentowner]

The graphs and stats just confirm what I said, the system Huska deploys in the O zone is perimeter low danger crap. The roster easily has enough talent to be a playoff team but not with this coach.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Hate to be simplistic about it, but it’s just not a very good team. Badly lacking elite talent everywhere except in net this year. If anything they’re overachieving, imo.

Being insanely passive in the defensive zone isn't a skill thing, it's a coaching thing. Sending two guys deep to forecheck hard (like the third last night) isn't a skill thing, it's a coaching thing.

Taking forever to make obvious line adjustments is a huge failure of Huska. Having a PP that can't even generate simple scoring chances is a failing of Savard.

I believe this team would be really battling for a playoff spot with competent coaching.

Huska may be nice, but has had zero success as a professional head coach. Lots of coaches can be great in Junior and never make it at the pro level. That's Huska.

Sutter would have this team winning more games. If he had this goaltending last year they would have easily made the playoffs.

Flames went super cheap (again) are getting what they paid for.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The graphs and stats just confirm what I said, the system Huska deploys in the O zone is perimeter low danger crap. The roster easily has enough talent to be a playoff team but not with this coach.

I think the shots heat map shows that we have a lot of left shot forwards, so our offense naturally shifts more to the left side. As for "perimeter low danger crap" I thought that the Kadri line was generating high quality chances. The same with Huberdeau over the last 9 or so games.

How would you tweak the system in the O-Zone to generate more?

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The graphs and stats just confirm what I said, the system Huska deploys in the O zone is perimeter low danger crap. The roster easily has enough talent to be a playoff team but not with this coach.

With how inept this team is on the power player - when you have more players than the opposing team - you seem pretty confident that this team has the ability to actually control the puck and get good quality chances from closer in.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

^ The intention wasn't to put too many stats, but to start the discussion.

Those stats were for 5 on 5, so we're essentially the 24th best D, and 25th best O, at preventing and generating chances respectively.

Okay, so how would you fix the 'soft defensive' play?

Better players, and more of them.

[Erick Estrada]

I just think the forward group isn't very skilled and diverse. Lots of high effort, medium skill players. No elite snipers or distributors of the puck (Huberdeau used to be but hasn't been that for the Flames). It's why the powerplay is so anemic. It's a problem that they are going to have to address via the draft, hopefully starting this year.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Hate to be simplistic about it, but it’s just not a very good team. Badly lacking elite talent everywhere except in net this year. If anything they’re overachieving, imo.

It’s a simple answer but I think it’s the truth. If Huberdeau was still a 90 point forward this team looks a lot different.

They work hard, they’re not overly stupid or undisciplined, they just don’t have high end talent. And the easiest way to acquire that talent is through the draft.

I don’t see a way they can trade themselves out of this. They need to tear it down and start again.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I think the shots heat map shows that we have a lot of left shot forwards, so our offense naturally shifts more to the left side. As for "perimeter low danger crap" I thought that the Kadri line was generating high quality chances. The same with Huberdeau over the last 9 or so games.

How would you tweak the system in the O-Zone to generate more?

The team needs to come down the wall and fire more pucks into the slot with players going there. You watch all the good skilled teams and every one of them play this way, you only go back to the point for a point shot if you can't get the puck into the slot. Huska's system would be effective on a team that has giant forwards that can screen the goalie without being pushed out of the way but that isn't this team. Now I will give Huska some credit, after the Christmas break there was an obvious adjustment in the offensive zone where the team is playing down low and passing to the slot a lot more and they have found success. The problem is two fold here, first they buried themselves in a hole running that stupidity for the first 3 months and secondly, the players when they are frustrated sometimes slip right back into shooting outside shots with no traffic. They need to nip that in the bud.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I just think the forward group isn't very skilled and diverse. Lots of high effort, medium skill players. No elite snipers or distributors of the puck (Huberdeau used to be but hasn't been that for the Flames). It's why the powerplay is so anemic. It's a problem that they are going to have to address via the draft, hopefully starting this year.

I thought Zary's and Lindholm's passing has been pretty good this season.

I agree we need another player that can score at will, but I don't see one such player choosing to come here. The most can see the Flames adding is a complimentary top 6 player like Duchene, Tarasenko, Toffoli, or Monahan, which would be a mistake IMO.

A drafted player is probably at least 2–3 years away. Unless Pelletier, or Honzek take a huge step and become impact players for the Flames.

[Royle9]

Everything looks as suspected.
Mediocre.

Gotta make a big change, that starts with high draft picks and players who want to be here.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Hate to be simplistic about it, but it’s just not a very good team. Badly lacking elite talent everywhere except in net this year. If anything they’re overachieving, imo.

Not arguing with this at all.

But they added Zary and Sharangovich this year, minus Toffoli and Zadorov for about half the year.

And better goaltending.

Last year finished with 93 points, this year on 84 point pace.

If they are over achieving this year, what does that say about last year? Maybe last year's system focused on man on man d zone and shot volume was actually gaining them points.

I do think that Lewis and Lucic were quite underappreciated.

[Harry Lime]

They don't have anyone who can consistently gain the zone by skating the puck in. Any team that has to rely on dump and chase is going to have a pretty weak point total. It's even worse that the Flames have to do it on the powerplay as well.

Simplistic, but dump and chase = lack of high end skill.

[Flamesfan05]

Just missing a few players that can dominate when they need it. Basically talent. The wizard left a depleted roster.

They can win a few games here and there and a few players like Coleman and Sharangovich can exceed expectations but if everyone shows up , they are not going to win.