2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Matty81]

The guy who used to cover the preds on the Athletic and got let go does a bit of a hit job on Lindholm on sportsnet.... some statistical analysis to underline publicly that he's having an off year which is a surprise to nobody and really not sure why the network covering our team would be emphasizing this publicly in advance of the trade deadline.

He's arguably the only 1st line forward on the flames playing with significantly weaker linemates the last two years, anybody buying him will be betting that his performance rebounds to historical levels playing on a better team.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...lias-lindholm/

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Matty81

The guy who used to cover the preds on the Athletic and got let go does a bit of a hit job on Lindholm on sportsnet.... some statistical analysis to underline publicly that he's having an off year which is a surprise to nobody and really not sure why the network covering our team would be emphasizing this publicly in advance of the trade deadline.

He's arguably the only 1st line forward on the flames playing with significantly weaker linemates the last two years, anybody buying him will be betting that his performance rebounds to historical levels playing on a better team.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...lias-lindholm/

It does show that he is a function of his line mates to some extent.

On a good team, he's likely playing the 2nd line role. I doubt he gets 1st PP time on a team like the Avs.

Unless his actual line mates improve and his premium ice times remains the same, I doubt he'll be back to being a PPG.

Although still a valuable player.

[Heavy Jack]

It seems dumb to compare the 21-22 season to 23-24 season; of course he’s had a drop off in points from that season, he lost the two best wingers he ever played with AT THE SAME TIME. Then last year happened and the debacle that it was which bled into this season before we finally have seen some consistency with his wingers the past few weeks and some chemistry develops offensively. At the same time the numbers presented seem to indicate he actually has taken a step defensively and is an even stronger center at the faceoff dot which is kind of incredible. Lindy continues to be criminally underrated and it is of no surprise Sportsnet is reporting something like this.

[Matty81]

Hard to argue with the stats, and I appreciate that there will be some who disagree - I don't love homerism is broadcasting myself - but I am also a bit disappointed that the team's main media partner trotting this out and emphasizing his decline a few weeks before the biggest trade deadline since Iginla and Bouwmeester departed. Not that a good GM wouldn't already be extremely well versed in it all already I guess just don't love the point of emphasis from an outlet that feels so oilers centric these days.

[Lanny_McDonald]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/wi...-a-frontrunner

The formula is there and using two deals from last season as a template.

Feb. 17, 2023
To Toronto: Ryan O’Reilly (75% retained), Noel Acciari
To St. Louis/Minnesota: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 25 overall), 2024 2nd Rd Pick, 2023 3rd Rd Pick, 2025 4th Rd Pick, Adam Gaudette, Mikhail Abramov

So a handful of draft picks (4) and two salary dumps for O'Reilly and a salary dump and a boatload of retention. The dumps are probably a wash with one of the picks (4th) ending up being the compensation. That means you have to figure out what the 75% retention is worth and then knock that off. So probably the 2nd or 3rd rounder as compensation. That would mean O'Reilly went for a 1st and a 3rd in 2023, or a 1st in 2023 and a 2nd in 2024. There's your value for Lindholm using this trade as a framework.

Jan. 30, 2023
To NY Islanders: Bo Horvat (25% retained)
To Vancouver: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 17 overall), Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty

So a 1st, a "B" level prospect, and a salary dump they turned into a 5th. Probably have to factor in Beauvillier's negative value to determine what was added as the compensation for the retention.

All in, it seems like a 1st rounder and either a 2nd/3rd or a "B" level prospect is the bar. The idea of a bluechipper is out reading this article.

[shutout]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/wi...-a-frontrunner

The formula is there and using two deals from last season as a template.

Feb. 17, 2023
To Toronto: Ryan O’Reilly (75% retained), Noel Acciari
To St. Louis/Minnesota: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 25 overall), 2024 2nd Rd Pick, 2023 3rd Rd Pick, 2025 4th Rd Pick, Adam Gaudette, Mikhail Abramov

So a handful of draft picks (4) and two salary dumps for O'Reilly and a salary dump and a boatload of retention. The dumps are probably a wash with one of the picks (4th) ending up being the compensation. That means you have to figure out what the 75% retention is worth and then knock that off. So probably the 2nd or 3rd rounder as compensation. That would mean O'Reilly went for a 1st and a 3rd in 2023, or a 1st in 2023 and a 2nd in 2024. There's your value for Lindholm using this trade as a framework.

Jan. 30, 2023
To NY Islanders: Bo Horvat (25% retained)
To Vancouver: 2023 1st Rd Pick (No. 17 overall), Anthony Beauvillier, Aatu Raty

So a 1st, a "B" level prospect, and a salary dump they turned into a 5th. Probably have to factor in Beauvillier's negative value to determine what was added as the compensation for the retention.

All in, it seems like a 1st rounder and either a 2nd/3rd or a "B" level prospect is the bar. The idea of a bluechipper is out reading this article.

Would agree unless it is with the Avalanche and you are taking another year of Johansen $4M contract. That could bump up the value of the prospect you are getting back. For the Avalanche it would not be unreasonable for them to want to get out from the $4M next year when they are in a window to win it.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

All in, it seems like a 1st rounder and either a 2nd/3rd or a "B" level prospect is the bar. The idea of a bluechipper is out reading this article.

Yeah, I don't think a bluechipper was ever really attainable outside of some crazy bidding war.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Matty81

The guy who used to cover the preds on the Athletic and got let go does a bit of a hit job on Lindholm on sportsnet.... some statistical analysis to underline publicly that he's having an off year which is a surprise to nobody and really not sure why the network covering our team would be emphasizing this publicly in advance of the trade deadline.

He's arguably the only 1st line forward on the flames playing with significantly weaker linemates the last two years, anybody buying him will be betting that his performance rebounds to historical levels playing on a better team.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...lias-lindholm/

I wouldn't call it a hit piece. I agree with him for the most part. I'm sure he will help any cup contending team in the playoffs as quality depth but I'm not sure he's going to be a big difference maker for any team. He's a good player, not a great player.

[devo22]

I think in a perfect world, Elias is a reliable 2nd line center who plays in all situations. I don't necessarily see him as a true 1st line center who drives play, but I know this has already been discussed at length on here. In this UFA crop, he's still far and away the most intriguing forward available for a contender ... who are the alternatives? Monahan? Henrique? Lindholm should still comfortably be above all of those, and that's without a possible contract extension.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by devo22

I think in a perfect world, Elias is a reliable 2nd line center who plays in all situations. I don't necessarily see him as a true 1st line center who drives play, but I know this has already been discussed at length on here. In this UFA crop, he's still far and away the most intriguing forward available for a contender ... who are the alternatives? Monahan? Henrique? Lindholm should still comfortably be above all of those, and that's without a possible contract extension.

And to add, as Lanny said, the O'Reilly and Horvat deals are at least comparable. Neither in my opinion are true 1st liners on a contender, but are really good players that contenders should covet.

[LGA]

I'd agree that the Horvat and O'Reilly deals are likely barometers for a possible Lindholm return. I think something to keep in mind is that Horvat was having an outstanding season with the Canucks, in 5 more games played than Lindholm has now he had 31G and 54pts as compared to Lindholm's current 29pts.

I also think part of O'Reilly's return was reputation based. He had a history of being a consistent top line two-way C and had stronger playoff resume as compared to Lindholm (including the Conn Smythe).

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by LGA

I'd agree that the Horvat and O'Reilly deals are likely barometers for a possible Lindholm return. I think something to keep in mind is that Horvat was having an outstanding season with the Canucks, in 5 more games played than Lindholm has now he had 31G and 54pts as compared to Lindholm's current 29pts.

I also think part of O'Reilly's return was reputation based. He had a history of being a consistent top line two-way C and had stronger playoff resume as compared to Lindholm (including the Conn Smythe).

Its not just about points, Lindholm has a recent 2nd place finish in Selke voting above Barkov

honestly I think most GMs would take Lindholm over Horvat

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by shutout

Would agree unless it is with the Avalanche and you are taking another year of Johansen $4M contract. That could bump up the value of the prospect you are getting back. For the Avalanche it would not be unreasonable for them to want to get out from the $4M next year when they are in a window to win it.

Okay, then a deal like should look like what? Originally I was thinking something along the lines of:

To Colorado: Lindholm (25% retained)

To Calgary: 1st rounder in 2024, Jean-Luc Foudy, 3rd rounder in 2025

With a salary dump like Johansen? What's $4M worth? We know a 1st costs $7M, so a 2nd or 3rd for $4M?

To Colorado: Lindholm (25% retained)

To Calgary: Johansen, 1st rounder in 2024, Jean-Luc Foudy, 3rd rounder in 2025, 2nd rounder in 2026

Maybe change the 2nd rounder to a player like Oskar Olausson and move the rebuild forward sooner? Personally, I'm for taking prospects that have already proven themselves through their first year of pro hockey over draft picks years out.

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Matty81

The guy who used to cover the preds on the Athletic and got let go does a bit of a hit job on Lindholm on sportsnet.... some statistical analysis to underline publicly that he's having an off year which is a surprise to nobody and really not sure why the network covering our team would be emphasizing this publicly in advance of the trade deadline.

He's arguably the only 1st line forward on the flames playing with significantly weaker linemates the last two years, anybody buying him will be betting that his performance rebounds to historical levels playing on a better team.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article...lias-lindholm/

GM's are not relying on articles written by sports journalists to make up their minds about players.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by D as in David

GM's are not relying on articles written by sports journalists to make up their minds about players.

Its true but this would never happen with certain other Canadian teams

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by dino7c

ILindholm has a recent 2nd place finish in Selke voting above Barkov

That's relevant how? That was in a season when he had a monster career year that he has not even come close to replicating. NHL hardware voting only matters if you win.

honestly I think most GMs would take Lindholm over Horvat

You're nuts. Horvat scored 38 goals and 70 points last year. He's on a pace to score 32 goals and 78 points. Lindholm is on a pace for 14 goals and 54 points. after a disappointing season of 22 goals and 64 points. Lindholm is good, but Horvat is the better player with the gap getting wider. Better offensively and no slouch on the defensive side of the puck either.

[stemit14]

I would fine with just getting a 1st round pick + 2nd round pick + B-level prospect for a Lindholm (50% retained). Taking back a salary dump could add to the package or improve the quality of the prospect. It would be great to have that 1st round pick in the draft that the team can swing for the fences on.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

That's relevant how? That was in a season when he had a monster career year that he has not even come close to replicating. NHL hardware voting only matters if you win.



You're nuts. Horvat scored 38 goals and 70 points last year. He's on a pace to score 32 goals and 78 points. Lindholm is on a pace for 14 goals and 54 points. after a disappointing season of 22 goals and 64 points. Lindholm is good, but Horvat is the better player with the gap getting wider. Better offensively and no slouch on the defensive side of the puck either.

lol no it doesn't

we will see who is "nuts" when the return comes in and is at least the Horvat return

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

That's relevant how? That was in a season when he had a monster career year that he has not even come close to replicating. NHL hardware voting only matters if you win.

Not sure I agree.

Never a bad thing to be mentioned in the top 2, 3 or 5 of the best defensive forwards in the game if you want to establish a reputation as a two way 200 foot player.

Now does it matter? Not sure it matter if you win or lose the trophy to a GM that should already know the player is good.

[dammage79]

I like talking trades but I'm also fully aware that setting a minimal expectation on a return for one of our players is foolhardy.

Given the state of the trade market the last calendar year I'm not sure historical values apply to the current status of the league.

Yeah I too want all the candy in the candy store but maybe the store isn't putting everything on the shelves.