“Make it to the playoffs an anything could happen"

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

and 3 days earlier it was better

so its about the same or better the entire time...he obviously isn't a HUGE loss as was suggested initially or the #1 dman like his idiot agent said. He was 6th in ice time for the Canucks recently, GL with that big contract guy. Maybe in Columbus.

Glad Gilbert is back...I think he was really taking steps

This is also rich coming from a guy who found a game before Zadorov was traded that he didn't play to try and prove me wrong. Fact is the Flames haven't missed him much if at all. They went through the toughest part of their schedule without him and did better.

Heck they beat the Sens without him giving them free goals!

You are literally just arguing with yourself on the bolded.

Flames really need to bring back James Neal. Their record with him was far better than without him.

[BoLevi]

Winning the cup after scraping into the playoffs..

5 percent of the time it works every time.

[Hackey]

LA is definitely a poor example. Two Cups in 3 years and lost in the Conference finals to the Cup Champions the year in between. That isnt got hot at the right time, that's an elite team.

[dino7c]

3 points back of third in the division

Hey don't shoot the messenger


Oh and Leafs suck

[browna]

2 of the last 3 SC finalists have finished the regular season with either less wins (MTL) or with less points (FLA) than the Flames.

[Winsor_Pilates]

The philosophy of just get in is fine for fans, I get the hope and desire to see playoffs every year.

The problem is when management think that way and fail to make timely decisions like selling players at the deadline, promoting young players to the big team and giving them time to get going, making hard decisions with free agents.
Treliving was terrible at this.

Thankfully Conroy so far doesn't seem to be like that and the UFA situation will force them to make hard decisions anyway. They need to think long term and plan accordingly.

This year it's ok to cheer for the just get in and seeing some playoffs while also getting some smart moves from management with players that need to be moved.
As long as management doesn't get caught up managing like a homer fan, we are good.

[Enoch Root]

The problem isn't trying to get into the playoffs, it's trading picks for 4th liners, in years when you shouldn't be spending assets - in fact, you should be looking to move someone, if they seem expendable.

That, and blowing all the cap space on mediocre players, instead of saving it for more useful things (and giving kids a chance)

Going for the playoffs is fine, but manage your team as well

[NewFan]

This season there are too many strong teams in the west. I think "It's going to be a waste of eight days." like Sutter said.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by NewFan

This season there are too many strong teams in the west. I think "It's going to be a waste of eight days." like Sutter said.

wat?!

teams all look pretty average

Canucks? Jets? haha

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by NewFan

This season there are too many strong teams in the west. I think "It's going to be a waste of eight days." like Sutter said.

Sutter also himself oversaw two teams that defied the 8 day prognosis and stretched that into 2 months of playoff hockey.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Pellanor

I wanted to look into regular season success vs playoff success, to see if deep runs were more likely for teams with regular regular season success. To do that I first counted the number of top 10 regular season finishes since the lockout. Then I counted how many times each team made each round of the playoffs, and assigned a score to each.
1st round loss: 0 points (you made it, but nothing happened)
2nd round loss: 1 point
Conference finals: 2 points
Cup finals: 4 points
This gives an average of 1 point per playoff appearance, so I could simply subtract the number of playoff appearances from the total score to get a playoff success score that gives a rough idea of how deep the team goes when it makes the playoffs.

I think you should have put a premium on actually winning a cup. 8 points for a Cup win. See how that changes things.

[NewFan]

Originally Posted by dino7c

wat?!

teams all look pretty average

Canucks? Jets? haha

I think they aren't really trying now, may be except Canucks.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

haha you guys are too easy

way too easy

it is absolutely destroying you that the Flames have a better record since Zadorov left like I said they would

That's a really poor read on my emotions actually.

I'm glad they moved Zadorov.
I'm glad they didn't extend him to a long term contract at too much money.
I thought he was a solid 5 in Calgary.
I don't think the Flames are better off with AHL tweeners in his place.

That's it.

No major emotional rollercoasters in my head.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

I think you should have put a premium on actually winning a cup. 8 points for a Cup win. See how that changes things.

Maybe 100 points for a cup win.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's a really poor read on my emotions actually.

I'm glad they moved Zadorov.
I'm glad they didn't extend him to a long term contract at too much money.
I thought he was a solid 5 in Calgary.
I don't think the Flames are better off with AHL tweeners in his place.

That's it.

No major emotional rollercoasters in my head.

Really Bingo, I don’t believe you. You’re sure it’s not “absolutely destroying you”? I’m surprised you can even sleep at night.

Is there a frequent poster who obsesses over former Flames though? I’ll have to give that some thought.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The problem isn't trying to get into the playoffs, it's trading picks for 4th liners, in years when you shouldn't be spending assets - in fact, you should be looking to move someone, if they seem expendable.

That, and blowing all the cap space on mediocre players, instead of saving it for more useful things (and giving kids a chance)

Going for the playoffs is fine, but manage your team as well

I don't think highly of most NHL GM's as I believe most of them just aren't very good an in over their heads running professional sports teams but it's not lost on me how challenging it can be to make all the right moves. You can save your cap space for more useful things but on the surface the PLD move for the Kings looked like a solid move for them at $8.5 million annually but it's not paying off this year for sure with him spending time on the 4th line and there's a bit of a Huberdeau vibe there. I can't be hypocritical of the Huberdeau contract as I thought he would be a good player for this organization based on his history of producing and it's just a precautionary tale that for a lot of players the fit has to be right to get the best out of them and not every organization is the right fit for every good player.

I kind of feel the best way to build a team today is almost solely through the draft and signing your key young players to long term deals before they get close to free agency. Free agency more and more is turning into a really, really bad place to do your business if you are looking for impact players. If a player plays well for your organization, then reward him with a long term deal rather than playing contract games, losing them, and having to resort to the lottery of free agency or trades for players that may not fit into your roster.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I don't think highly of most NHL GM's as I believe most of them just aren't very good an in over their heads running professional sports teams but it's not lost on me how challenging it can be to make all the right moves. You can save your cap space for more useful things but on the surface the PLD move for the Kings looked like a solid move for them at $8.5 million annually but it's not paying off this year for sure with him spending time on the 4th line and there's a bit of a Huberdeau vibe there. I can't be hypocritical of the Huberdeau contract as I thought he would be a good player for this organization based on his history of producing and it's just a precautionary tale that for a lot of players the fit has to be right to get the best out of them and not every organization is the right fit for every good player.

I kind of feel the best way to build a team today is almost solely through the draft and signing your key young players to long term deals before they get close to free agency. Free agency more and more is turning into a really, really bad place to do your business if you are looking for impact players. If a player plays well for your organization, then reward him with a long term deal rather than playing contract games, losing them, and having to resort to the lottery of free agency or trades for players that may not fit into your roster.

I agree that just second-guessing contracts, when players slide, is pointless. Teams need players, and sometimes you sign guys and then they turn to #### - what can you do?

My point was the 'cap-space-burning-a-hole-in-your-pocket trades, the spending $4M on some guy to plug your 3rd line, simply because you have some cap space. There are years when you have a legitimate shot, and in those years, you do everything you can. But the rest of the time, I think it is more prudent to not spend on the filler players.

Save your space, remain committed to the draft, and keep yourself in a strong position, so that you can take advantage of opportunities that occasionally pop up.

[PeteMoss]

My general replies (that everyone was waiting with baited breath on)

- if you could guarantee yourself the 1st overall pick, then I'd be pro re-build. But you can't even guarantee a top 3 pick without completely destroying your team - and that takes forever to get out of and no promises you are getting an elite guy picking 5th.

- lots of people over-rate the impact of losing a bottom line/defensive player. It would be one thing if it was McDavid or MacKinnon, but losing Zadarov and replacing with random 7th defenseman is probably worth like 2 points in a complete season.

- the flames likely won't materially change if they trade Lindholm assuming Pelletier is healthy. They will be worse but its like 3-4 point difference over the season so like 1-2 points for the rest of this season.

- defense is where the team could collapse if you trade both Tanev and Hanifan. Ideally Kylington can replace one of them but dropping 2 top 4 defense and the 5th guy and replacing with borderline guys is where you start exposing yourself (depending on what you get back obviously).

[Goriders]

Looks like if you finish in the top 10 in the league, are healthy and get good goaltending you have a shot. Flames are 6 points out of the top 10, healthy, getting very good goaltending and are fun to watch. Trending up.

I’d just see where it goes and make good decisions for the organization if I was Conroy. Think I’d try and keep Hanifin and have max numbers for Tanev and Lindholm. Sign them if they accept. Trade them if they don’t.

Vladar and Dube are the other two I think I’d look at moving if you could get something decent back.

But I wouldn’t completely bail on the coaches and players. They have put a lot of effort into turning things around after a horrible start. Good for them. They deserve some support in my mind.

[Bandwagon Surfer]

I appreciate the stats people have added to this thread.

The initial analysis using only seed did not pass the sniff test for me, as those Kings and Blues teams were obviously good at the time. I made some good money from pre-playoff bets those years as to me they looked like cup favorites.

It is really about the team going into the playoffs. The cases of low seeds winning it all, were all good teams which had something happen to suppress their regular season points. I do not see any cases of consistent tweeners wining anything.

Which seems to match the average sentiment on this board too. For playoffs people get excited about teams they think can win, and are not excited about teams they don't think can win, regardless of seed. They get frustrated seeing assets spent/expired for teams that they do not think can win (assuming those assets are not a Kiprusoff).