2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Bingo]

From December 15th to today the Flames are the 8th best team in hockey playing at a .692 win percentage.

They keep that up and they're a playoff team.

But ...

In that time frame they've scored 4 more goals than they were expected and their goaltenders have saved 12 more goals than expected.

They have the 5th best PDO in that time frame at 1.038.

Save percentage is ranked #4
Shooting percentage is ranked #9

The Flames are on a heater, especially Markstrom, but not sure it's a sustainable pace to get back into things.

Will be fun if I'm wrong though.

I'm all for trading Lindholm, either signing Hanifin or not, trading Tanev, and making the playoffs anyway.

But I doubt Markstrom can keep this up for 60 games.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by stemit14

This is a good point. We can look at how virtually every team that has won cups in the last 30 years has picked in the top five of the draft but you could also point out just any many cases where teams have picked in the top five of the draft and not won any cups.

All we can say is the obvious… the cup winning teams drafted/acquired the right players at the right time. Some of that is luck (lotteries) and some of that is good scouting. Tampa especially has been really good at both professional and amateur scouting during the last 15 years. They found guys like Kucherov, Killorn, Coleman, Goodrow, Pallat, etc. that were really good players for them. Oddly enough, their first round picks over that time have not been too amazing. It’s their late picks they been really good.

You make some good points about Tampa and I agree that building a solid contender is about more than just bottoming out for a top five pick. But Tampa got Stamkos and Hedman as top two picks. They got Drouin at #3 and flipped him for Sergachev. Vasilevsky was a first rounder albeit at #24. In any event, most of their core are their own first round picks.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But I doubt Markstrom can keep this up for 60 games.

I've seen him do it for a lot longer than 60 games behind a much worse defense.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

I've seen him do it for a lot longer than 60 games behind a much worse defense.

In Markstrom’s best season in Vancouver, he was only 22nd in goals saved above expected. And he was worse on a per game basis. You might not be giving the Canuck’s defense enough credit there.

When Markstrom had a great season in Calgary, the overall team defense was strong. Only Carolina had better metrics. Markstrom’s saves above expected was surprisingly low that season (still good, but not Vezina worthy).

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

You make some good points about Tampa and I agree that building a solid contender is about more than just bottoming out for a top five pick. But Tampa got Stamkos and Hedman as top two picks. They got Drouin at #3 and flipped him for Sergachev. Vasilevsky was a first rounder albeit at #24. In any event, most of their core are their own first round picks.

Tampa Bay did a lot of things right. When they missed on a player in Drouin, they cashed out and still got great value from that asset. The pick they used for Vasilevsky...came from trading Steve Downey for Kyle Quincey than flipping him to Detroit....plus finding a lot of good players in later rounds and a legitimate Superstar in Kucherov, and other star in Point. But the lottery balls did fall their way to get Stamkos and Hedman.

Of the 4 teams who have won 2 or more cups in the cap environment, three of them had the lotto balls fall their way to draft key players. For all we know the guy the Flames take at 11 this year could become a Kopitar...but I'm an idiot for suggesting that could happen.

Today, I don't think teams will give you a first for Kyle Quincey's...teams as a collective are far more guarded about trading first round picks than they used to be. Although Treliving seemed to be a bit cavalier with them.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

For all we know the guy the Flames take at 11 this year could become a Kopitar...but I'm an idiot for suggesting that could happen.

Kopitar is by far the best player selected at 11 in the last 20 years. Probably even longer. So statistically our odds of getting a Kopitar at 11 is less than 5%.

[NegativeSpace]

Didn’t someone post that every team has top five picks as part of their core, including the Flames. There are more necessary conditions to being a winning team than simply having a top five pick on your roster.

[Poe969]

The Flames are playing better than they are right now. LOTS of things are going well right now. It's a great time to sign all their pending UFA'S and trade a couple prospects and picks to show how committed this team is to winning.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

It’s not difficult, the right answer is they need to commit to a rebuild. The owner won’t let them, so here we are.

You either choose to keep cheering for them or not.

How do you know that is the right answer? How has the worked out for the Sabres? How many years have they missed the playoffs now?;

[traptor]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

Didn’t someone post that every team has top five picks as part of their core, including the Flames. There are more necessary conditions to being a winning team than simply having a top five pick on your roster.

I think its more insightful to look at teams with top 5 picks on their roster that they have drafted.

But honestly it's not the top 5 pick part that matters anyways.

It comes down to having an elite core that has developed together.
It's just way more likely to get elite pieces in the top 5 of a draft.
The flames don't have this core and the fastest way to get there is by drafting it.

[FlamesAddiction]

When a top 5 pick plays for a team that didn't draft them, it is usually because they didn't live up to that pedigree or are past their prime.

[HitterD]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

When a top 5 pick plays for a team that didn't draft them, it is usually because they didn't live up to that pedigree or are past their prime.

I don’t know if you have a bunch of examples to back this up, but I can think of two pretty solid examples playing on the flames right now that don’t fit the above description in Hanafin and Lindholm.

I know there are exceptions but I feel that top 5 picks get traded to new teams quite frequently without being past their prime or broken

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Poe969

The Flames are playing better than they are right now. LOTS of things are going well right now. It's a great time to sign all their pending UFA'S and trade a couple prospects and picks to show how committed this team is to winning.

Once again you seem to be arguing into the wind
No one is arguing for the above

[dammage79]

I believe Conroy when he says he won't walk the UFAs without getting anything back for them.

I'll believe him until the hour after the deadline and none of them moved or didn't sign an extension.

I just hope he sticks to his own words which are on the record.

It's a tough spot.

I think Lindholm even in this heater has been a Center who can be replaced fairly easily. He should be moved unless his ask comes down a million or two. And even then, eeesh.

It's probably a fair guess to think they'll re-sign one of the two D men. But not both.

Prediction: they move Lindholm and only one D man. Guessing a hockey trade and not so much for futures. Name of the game is gonna be RFA level players.

[Roof-Daddy]

I love winning and hope the Flames can keep it up and manage to sneak back into playoff contention, but I hope they can do it despite selling at least two of the three pending UFA's

I can live with a Hanifin extension, because he's still pretty young but Tanev and Lindholm need to be traded for futures IMO

I am concerned about two things:

1. The other GM's not offering enough
2. Conroy getting boxed into a corner by ownership and not allowed to follow through on selling if they continue to win

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by traptor

I think its more insightful to look at teams with top 5 picks on their roster that they have drafted.

But honestly it's not the top 5 pick part that matters anyways.

It comes down to having an elite core that has developed together.
It's just way more likely to get elite pieces in the top 5 of a draft.
The flames don't have this core and the fastest way to get there is by drafting it.

I think posters get way to caught up on top 3 or top 5 when you're right, the pick isn't what matters, landing a few elite players is what ultimately matters. The top 5 isn't a guaranteed way to land elite players, it isn't the only way, but it is the most probable way.

If your goal is to build a contender I think you should give your organization opportunities in all ways, including the most probable one which is drafting high, at least a few seasons. Drafting high is tough as it is. Building a contender without those high picks is significantly harder.

On top of high picks try to accumulate a surplus of later picks and hit on those, look for trades, look at free agents, etc. An organization should try to excel at every aspect of team building but the most difficult aspect of building a contender is finding those elite pieces so not using the most probable method to acquire them seems like a way to make things unnecessarily way more difficult.

[CFO]

Tanev for 2 picks.

Hanafin extended.

Vladar traded. Markstrom traded in future years unless someone overlays.

Lindholm for a 1st, prospect and quality young player on the breakout bubble where a playoff team needs results now.

[Flames1217]

Been thinking about this a lot lately but with the way things have been going, I wonder if the Flames pursue more deals like Toffoli to Jersey.

Like let's say the Canes want Lindholm, do the flames ask for KK and add a lesser pick ?

Targeting a player who is around 25 but that can provide solid play when given the chance. The more I think about it, the more I think it makes sense.

Would the Canes rather lose a 1st plus a solid prospect or lose a player who is essentially underutilized on thier current roster.

[ComixZone]

Just looking at the free agent crop for this coming Summer and it's hard for me to look at Chandler Stephenson and not think that he'll be the Flames top target.

Lindholm likely traded, and Stephenson will be looking for a contract somewhere around what Kadri got which he likely won't get in Vegas. He's won a Stanley Cup, has back to back 60+ point seasons coming into this one...

Not saying it's something I'd outright want, but with how the Flames aren't going to just lay down and rebuild...it makes a good deal of sense.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Kopitar is by far the best player selected at 11 in the last 20 years. Probably even longer. So statistically our odds of getting a Kopitar at 11 is less than 5%.

Filip forsberg is pretty good at hockey.

Kevin Fiala is not bad.

So if one assumes that it is too early to judge guys drafted 2020 or later it looks like there are 2 other pretty good hockey players picked at 11 in 15 drafts.

20% chance at difference makers seems ok.