The Ongoing Super Mega Weather Thread v3

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Acey

I was reading alot about this last night as well, that this is in fact what saved the grid last night... not the lights downtown. Not sure I'm ready to believe that people turning off their porch lights wasn't the solution, though.

Probably didn't hurt, probably needed a little more because the big guys shutting in at these temps could be devastating so a bunch probably said they cannot shut in.

There are other things like load shedding, where you can shed load when pricing gets high. Usually do that if the cost of power is more than the widgets/gas being produced.

I was told pulp mills are some of the biggest users, they can do without making paper for a couple hours twice a year.

[fotze2]

Here is what we were paid by hour for being on standby, so times of grid getting stretched. You can see its throughout the year, most in the summer during plant turnaround season and temps.

Most of the time no one hears about it.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Am I reading th AESO page wrong, but Milner seems to be producing very little power versus its maximum generation for the last few days. Including last night. Only around 23% of its ability.

You are reading it correctly.

They had a fire in the powerhouse and only recently came back online. Sounds like they are having issues reaching full output.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by fotze2

Most of the time no one hears about it.

Cool numbers to see. Can I ask what industry this is?

I happened to see the original tweet by AESO at about 4:15 pm which was the first warning sign, I imagine at that time there had already been a lot of semi-frantic communication to these big guys as you say - without them it's pretty clear it would have come crashing down.

"Problem solved" by the porch lights indeed.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Acey

Cool numbers to see. Can I ask what industry this is?

I happened to see the original tweet by AESO at about 4:15 pm which was the first warning sign, I imagine at that time there had already been a lot of semi-frantic communication to these big guys as you say - without them it's pretty clear it would have come crashing down.

"Problem solved" by the porch lights indeed.

I think only a few companies are in it. They agglomerate industrial users and bid into the market. I don't really understand it, almost like a trading desk. AESO send out directives to these guys and then they send it to the users. There is also a side of power plants that can bump of production too.

https://www.voltus.co/demand-response

This is one of them. Every jursidiction is a little different too. I think Ontario is the only other province that has it. They tell me limiting it to $999/MW makes it worse.

[Bigtime]

Great thread from Blake Shaffer on last night. Data and analysis presented plainly with no political slant, a solid follow.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1746559160148521280

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Acey

Cool numbers to see. Can I ask what industry this is?

I happened to see the original tweet by AESO at about 4:15 pm which was the first warning sign, I imagine at that time there had already been a lot of semi-frantic communication to these big guys as you say - without them it's pretty clear it would have come crashing down.

"Problem solved" by the porch lights indeed.

Sorry, are being absolutely ridiculous on purpose or is this your legitimate approach to conversations?

Last night in my house we unplugged one car, turned off our dishwasher, shut off a bedroom space heater and turned off every light inside and outside save for one in the kitchen. Also turned the furnace down to 18 - not for the electric grid, but since energy consumption jumped to top of mind following the alert. Saved a load of laundry for Monday as well.

It wasn't just porch lights, so I don't know why you're acting like a weirdo as though we all didn't instantly reduce our consumption, as though there isn't an objective measure that shows an instant alleviation of the grid, and as though we didn't go from the risk of rolling brownouts to everybody maintaining their power.

Like, you're argument couldn't be less smart if you tried. Alert went out, we responded, we solved the immediate issue.

I then went on to talk about how there are other things we could do. Office lights, mall lights, electric cars don't all need to smoke a Ferrari off the line, etc. Just easy things that would help immediately at almost no cost.

But no, you think I said porch lights while bashing my curled up hand against my chest and drooling.

Acey. Wtf is wrong with you?

[Acey]

It's interesting to hear him say that the 150 MW response from the Emergency Alert is not a sustainable solution and does not solve Alberta's energy problem.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Acey. Wtf is wrong with you?

Am I right in assuming that, even with big investment, there's not a lot of additional power to be had from hydro in Alberta? If not hydro, trying to understand how we move forward for the bulk of power without gas.

By porch lights I'm obviously referring to the entire civilian response, which was quanitfied as ~150 MW by people far smarter than anyone here.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Bigtime

Great thread from Blake Shaffer on last night. Data and analysis presented plainly with no political slant, a solid follow.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1746559160148521280

I like the idea of the smart meters (interval meters). If people knew they were paying 20-40X the price that they were paying 2 hours earlier they would likely curtail.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Acey

Am I right in assuming that, even with big investment, there's not a lot of additional power to be had from hydro in Alberta? If not hydro, trying to understand how we move forward for the bulk of power without gas.

If I had an answer for that I would have given it. You didn't email me at sliver@albertahydro.com. You posed a question on a chat forum and my contribution was that we should also look at ways of reducing energy. Then you got super weird and started flapping around.

[fotze2]

WTF are you guys arguing about? I have no idea.

[Fuzz]

Can you imagine just how political the nutjob wankers will turn smart meters into? It'll be rallying call a "you'll take my dumb meter from my cold dead hands," "they can't take your meter if you don't let them on your property!" Theo will tell you Bill Gates had secret island sex with the daughter of the smart meter inventor, and has put 8G chips in them to control your brain.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Acey

Am I right in assuming that, even with big investment, there's not a lot of additional power to be had from hydro in Alberta? If not hydro, trying to understand how we move forward for the bulk of power without gas.

By porch lights I'm obviously referring to the entire civilian response, which was quanitfied as ~150 MW by people far smarter than anyone here.

Right, there was the civilian response that happened two minutes after we learned of the issue on a Saturday night. On Monday we can start planning for commercial and industrial ways to reduce our power use.

That reduction was awesome on short notice. Just think what we could do with two days of work notice if we put the effort in. Or two weeks. Or two months.

Are you really arguing energy use can't be reduced? Haha. Jfc

Yes, I'm interested to see the ways we can increase output in the cleanest and most reliable ways possible. I know nothing about that, though, but I am able to brainstorm a few things we can do to decrease our use.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by Sliver

That reduction was awesome on short notice. Just think what we could do with two days of work notice if we put the effort in. Or two weeks. Or two months.

This is exactly what we should be doing in regards to our water situation right now.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by fotze2

I like the idea of the smart meters (interval meters). If people knew they were paying 20-40X the price that they were paying 2 hours earlier they would likely curtail.

I don't know if things have changed recently but this article indicates that smart meters and time of use pricing did little to change residential demand patterns (but this is from 2016):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...cing-1.3862462

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Are you really arguing energy use can't be reduced? Haha. Jfc

Of course I'm not saying that. I'm saying that we as civilians cannot reduce our energy to the degree that we can negate the 8,800 MW currently being generated by gas, period. Therefore I am curious if a) there is potential, even at high cost, for large scale hydro projects in Alberta that could begin to make up the delta
b) literally anything else that makes power

If you don't know the answer to my question about hydro in Alberta or potential methods long-term for replacing gas generation in Alberta, then just scroll past my question. I really don't care how many loads of laundry you delay or cars you unplugged, your delayed detergent has nothing to do with hydro projects in Alberta which is all I asked.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Acey

Of course I'm not saying that. I'm saying that we as civilians cannot reduce our energy to the degree that we can negate the 8,800 MW currently being generated by gas, period. Therefore I am curious if a) there is potential, even at high cost, for large scale hydro projects in Alberta that could begin to make up the delta
b) literally anything else that makes power

If you don't know the answer to my question about hydro in Alberta or potential methods long-term for replacing gas generation in Alberta, then just scroll past my question. I really don't care how many loads of laundry you delay or cars you unplugged, your delayed detergent has nothing to do with hydro projects in Alberta which is all I asked.

I really dont think hydro generation in Alberta is enough of a thing to make a dent.....but thats based only on the whole idea it would have happened long ago if possible and not sure what bodies of water are big enough. Im merely a layman though and have no idea for sure.

I really think that nuclear is the way to go in the future, but it is such a political hot potato that it wont happen until its forced upon the masses with no other options available....which will be long after most here are dead.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I really dont think hydro generation in Alberta is enough of a thing to make a dent.....but thats based only on the whole idea it would have happened long ago if possible and not sure what bodies of water are big enough. Im merely a layman though and have no idea for sure.

Thanks! That's what I would have figured, given how long ago Quebec and BC's big hydro projects started. We would have got it going long ago if it was feasible.

Originally Posted by fotze2

WTF are you guys arguing about? I have no idea.

Not sure. I was just wondering how and if Alberta plans to replace natural gas as our primary method of energy generation. Obviously wind and solar are not available 100% time, so the bulk of our power for the duration of those times will have to come from somewhere if gas were to be absent in the future.

Every Albertan, even when we're not in any kind of energy crisis, should be taking reasonable measures to reduce their personal energy consumption, this is an incredibly obvious point that does not need to be codified with details about laundry. However, said measures will simply not reduce Alberta's total energy consumption by the massive 80% required to negate our reliance on gas, so we'll need something else.

[flamingchina]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I really dont think hydro generation in Alberta is enough of a thing to make a dent.....but thats based only on the whole idea it would have happened long ago if possible and not sure what bodies of water are big enough. Im merely a layman though and have no idea for sure.

I really think that nuclear is the way to go in the future, but it is such a political hot potato that it wont happen until its forced upon the masses with no other options available....which will be long after most here are dead.

So, the AUC did study in 2010, that showed that Alberta has 42-52 TWH of total hydro capacity on our river basins. We're currently generating about 2TWH of hydro a year.
http://www.history.alberta.ca/energy...rta-today.aspx
https://media.www.auc.ab.ca/prd-wp-u...Generation.pdf

There are also several proposals before the AUC to do pumped storage hydro, which basically acts like a giant battery for hydro in Alberta.

So, more hydro is available in Alberta, but you can look to Site C in BC to see some of the issues that may come up from it.
It also won't likely be competitive in terms of MWH cost in comparison to Solar/Wind in non-supply constrained times
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Site_C_dam
Which means that private companies are less likely to try and build something like that in Alberta.