The Ongoing Super Mega Weather Thread v3

[transplant99]

Yeah it seems like it was more about the timing of it all.

Lots of ovens were being used as opposed to microwaves, dishwashers were likely running at the highest levels of the day, and just the fact more people were at home and getting the furnaces/space heaters etc cranked up as well as TV's all on, led to the overload.

So, yes electricity gets wasted, but last night was all about the timing of the demand combined with unusual conditions. I would expect it to be similar this evening.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by psyang

The article I read said Sundance 6 and Milner were offline last night. One was an emergency outage and one was scheduled maintenance. Looks like they combine for a max of 700MW

Miller was off on Friday for a brief period (a bad period though), as far as I could tell everything was running last night that should have been.

Not sure what's up with Sundance, it's been down since Jan 8.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by psyang

The article I read said Sundance 6 and Milner were offline last night. One was an emergency outage and one was scheduled maintenance. Looks like they combine for a max of 700MW

Maybe its that Dastardly Dyatlov!

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Acey

If "oh hai guys, emergency power crisis" forced onto every phone in the province only dumped around 100-200 MW, i.e. 1% of Alberta's capacity, it sounds like the problem is not solved.

?

It literally solved the problem. We were facing rolling brown outs. They sent a text telling us to curb our electricity usage. We did. Problem was over.

And that was with two minutes of notice.

Now imagine if we made a concerted effort to curb usage and had the benefit of some time to plan and prepare. There is no reason for all the lights to be on downtown. There should be a button every mall can hit to use half the lights they normally use during peak times. We should normalize heating homes to 18 degrees and just wearing sweaters. Electric cars don't need to go 0-60 in two seconds...why aren't they detuned with less power and therefore require smaller battery packs?

I mean, dude. I don't get you lol.

[Jacks]

I don't pretend to be an expert in powering a province but if the plan is to push out fuel burning vehicles along with a rising population then we are going to need more generation in the future not the same or less. It's entirely predictable that in the winter it is dark when people are getting home, turning up the heat, plugging in the car, cooking dinner, turning on lights/tv's, etc so solar obviously isn't the answer. Wind generation isn't coming close to meeting demand and is unpredictable.

If the intention is to phase out fossil fuels then what realistic alternative is there besides nuclear?
And how are we expecting to bring on any alternative generation source within 11 years?

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Sliver

?

It literally solved the problem.

I mean, dude. I don't get you lol.

No, it didn't solve the problem I presented, because the question I asked was how Alberta could potentially move forward without gas, given that as I type this we are consuming 8,900 MW from gas. You responded by saying that this is not the question that one should ask, but instead we should ask how we can save a few hundred MW by turning off lights and appliances.

Your response therefore has nothing to do with the post you quoted and is not an answer to my question, at all.

So I'll ask it again and maybe someone else can reply that doesn't want to just come after me for everything I say:

Am I right in assuming that, even with big investment, there's not a lot of additional power to be had from hydro in Alberta? If not hydro, trying to understand how we move forward for the bulk of power without gas.

I don't know what the answer is which is why I'm asking, but I can confidently say the answer to this question is not "Alberta moves forward by turning off lights downtown".

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Acey

The question I asked was how Alberta could potentially move forward without gas, given that as I type this we are consuming 8,900 MW from gas.

You responded by saying that this is not the question that one should ask, but instead we should ask how we can save a few hundred MW by turning off lights and appliances.

Your response therefore has nothing to do with the post you quoted and is not an answer to my question, is all.

So I'll say it again:

Am I right in assuming that, even with big investment, there's not a lot of additional power to be had from hydro in Alberta? If not hydro, trying to understand how we move forward for the bulk of power without gas.

The answer to this question is not "Alberta moves forward by turning off lights downtown".

Your question was how to increase our power. I said the other approach we need to look at is decreasing our consumption.

Maybe a good night's sleep would help you? Happy to pick this up on Monday if you're just not firing on all cylinders. All good.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Your question was how to increase our power.

Well no, at no point did I say the word increase... I said "how does Alberta move forward without gas."

Increasing output is a given as the population grows, but asking how Alberta potentially replaces the bulk of our reliable generation is a valid question and I'm not sure why you're chastising me for it.

Can you just leave me alone and someone else can answer?

[Nancy]

Originally Posted by Jacks

I don't pretend to be an expert in powering a province but if the plan is to push out fuel burning vehicles along with a rising population then we are going to need more generation in the future not the same or less. It's entirely predictable that in the winter it is dark when people are getting home, turning up the heat, plugging in the car, cooking dinner, turning on lights/tv's, etc so solar obviously isn't the answer. Wind generation isn't coming close to meeting demand and is unpredictable.

If the intention is to phase out fossil fuels then what realistic alternative is there besides nuclear?
And how are we expecting to bring on any alternative generation source within 11 years?

If everyone has electric vehicles and solar panels in their home, could we not theoretically have a system where people can store power in their vehicle and sell it back into the grid?

If I am mathing this correctly, a Tesla battery holds up to 100 kwh, and the peak spot price was $1000/mwh, so you could have theoretically made <$100 by not driving last night and selling the power from your battery to the grid?

And even if you don't have solar, you could have paid $200/mwh for power earlier in the day and sold it back at a higher price?

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by Acey

Well no, at no point did I say the word increase... I said "how does Alberta move forward without gas."

Increasing output is a given as the population grows, but asking how Alberta potentially replaces the bulk of our reliable generation is a valid question and I'm not sure why you're chastising me for it.

Can you just leave me alone and someone else can answer?

Leave you alone? I'm not bugging you. I'm engaging on a chat forum.

I'm also not chastising you. Grow a pair.

You want to know how to make more energy in certain ways and my contribution is we can also decrease our usage. Your way requires billions of dollars, uncertainty and decades of building up infrastructures.

My way proposes some $8 motions sensors.

Same goal, ultimately. Energy security. We need both.

Instead of being a little baby maybe just see that I'm contributing to what you're saying. Not out to get you there, guy. lol

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Sliver

?

It literally solved the problem. We were facing rolling brown outs. They sent a text telling us to curb our electricity usage. We did. Problem was over.

And that was with two minutes of notice.

Now imagine if we made a concerted effort to curb usage and had the benefit of some time to plan and prepare. There is no reason for all the lights to be on downtown. There should be a button every mall can hit to use half the lights they normally use during peak times. We should normalize heating homes to 18 degrees and just wearing sweaters. Electric cars don't need to go 0-60 in two seconds...why aren't they detuned with less power and therefore require smaller battery packs?

I mean, dude. I don't get you lol.

Here's where the provincial government is playing 4D chess. By creating the environment for the highest electrical costs in the country, they are providing us all with the incentive to use less.

[fotze2]

We already have an entire market that pays big users to curtail usage at peak periods. It works well and it did yesterday. My 9000 HP compressor has been paid close to $100k this past year to be on standby and curtail at peak times. Probably have had 10 directives this year, mostly in the summer.

Google operating reserves or demand response. The biggest place is Enel-X (that I believe cheese worked for) they are based out of Boston. Other companies are Voltus. They contract massive power users and AESO pays them to drop demand at a moments notice.

Its actually a pretty slick idea. These guys make killing in the California power market.

If you are unable to curtail then you get punished and don't get paid as much.

[fotze2]

Check out the gas price the past few days.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Sliver

You want to know how to make more energy in certain ways and my contribution is we can also decrease our usage.

Yes, and of course you're right... turning lights off will reduce our energy usage in Alberta. Excellent contribution. We reduced consumption by 2% and solved last night's problem. My question was simply about the methods by which we will move forward to potentially replace 57% of our current generation from gas because your $8 motion sensors alone won't reduce our consumption by 8,900 MW.

Seems a fairly reasonable thing to ask.

[Geraldsh]

Originally Posted by D as in David

Here's where the provincial government is playing 4D chess. By creating the environment for the highest electrical costs in the country, they are providing us all with the incentive to use less.

But the billing method buries the incentive in fixed delivery fees, I can cut my use in half and see less than 10% reduction in cost.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Nancy

If everyone has electric vehicles and solar panels in their home, could we not theoretically have a system where people can store power in their vehicle and sell it back into the grid?

If I am mathing this correctly, a Tesla battery holds up to 100 kwh, and the peak spot price was $1000/mwh, so you could have theoretically made <$100 by not driving last night and selling the power from your battery to the grid?

And even if you don't have solar, you could have paid $200/mwh for power earlier in the day and sold it back at a higher price?

Again I'm not an expert in any of this but it would seem that for this concept to work it would be more efficient to have some sort of battery in your home. Your car likely isn't there charging during the day and you need it charged up in the morning. If that sort of battery tech is even realistic it would require a lot of investment to make it large scale. Regardless, that doesn't seem to be a solution that can be phased in to the masses by 2035. Seems to me there needs to be some sort of massive breakthrough in power storage or a big drop in consumption before we can phase out fossil fuels.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by fotze2

We already have an entire market that pays big users to curtail usage at peak periods. It works well and it did yesterday. My 9000 HP compressor has been paid close to $100k this past year to be on standby and curtail at peak times. Probably have had 10 directives this year, mostly in the summer.

Google operating reserves or demand response. The biggest place is Enel-X (that I believe cheese worked for) they are based out of Boston. Other companies are Voltus. They contract massive power users and AESO pays them to drop demand at a moments notice.

Its actually a pretty slick idea. These guys make killing in the California power market.

If you are unable to curtail then you get punished and don't get paid as much.

I was reading alot about this last night as well, that this is in fact what saved the grid last night... not the lights downtown. Not sure I'm ready to believe that people turning off their porch lights wasn't the solution, though.

[Bigtime]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Miller was off on Friday for a brief period (a bad period though), as far as I could tell everything was running last night that should have been.

Not sure what's up with Sundance, it's been down since Jan 8.

Am I reading th AESO page wrong, but Milner seems to be producing very little power versus its maximum generation for the last few days. Including last night. Only around 23% of its ability.

[fotze2]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

But the billing method buries the incentive in fixed delivery fees, I can cut my use in half and see less than 10% reduction in cost.

Because the expensive part is the maintenance of the infrastructure. Because we have high standards of maintenance.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Nancy

If everyone has electric vehicles and solar panels in their home, could we not theoretically have a system where people can store power in their vehicle and sell it back into the grid?

This is already a thing, with Tesla Powerwalls, 13.5 kWh home batteries.

Owners of Tesla’s Powerwall can now re-sell their stored electricity back to California’s grid as part of the Virtual Power Plant program, Benzinga reports. The program is being piloted right now in partnership with PG&E for Northern Californians, and it recently expanded south in a partnership with Southern California Edison.

The result of these thousands of Tesla Powerwalls essentially creates a giant distributed battery that can be drawn upon in times of peak power usage, or high demand during heatwaves or other extreme weather events.

https://insideevs.com/news/606725/te...nergy-to-grid/

The Tesla system along with their solar roof and the car creates a cool ecosystem, where it's all auto controlled and the solar can power your house if it's sufficient, the grid can keep the batteries topped off if there's impending weather, the house can draw from the car, draw from the batteries at peak usage times in markets that have variable rates, the batteries can send back to the grid, etc.