We get the following when we account for the lottery odds:
32ndoverall before the lottery
30.7% chance to get a franchise player
18.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
27.6% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
23.7% to get a Depth player or a bust
31st overall before the lottery
28.2% chance to get a franchise player
16.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
31.5% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
24.4% to get a Depth player or a bust
30th overall before the lottery
25.3% chance to get a franchise player
23.5% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
27.3% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
23.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
29th overall before the lottery
20.7% chance to get a franchise player
28.4% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
23.0% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
27.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
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Math explained:
The worst team would have a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery, 18.8% of drafting 2nd, or 55.7% chance of drafting third*. The first overall pick resulted in a franchise player 56% of the time from 2004-2019, the 2nd overall pick resulted in a 31% chance, and the third overall pick resulted in a 19% chance.
In probability we use multiplication for AND, and addition for OR.
So using those odds we get 56% * 25.5% + 31% * 18.8% + 55.7% * 19% = 30.7%
* I used the numbers I found on the internet on Tankathon, I assume they changed the draft lottery odds slightly because a team finishing last could finish 4th before.
I only did the math for the teams that finish in the bottom 4, because the odds of picking a franchise player with the 7th overall pick and later weren't readily available, and I'm too lazy to calculate them to make an argument.
So if you tank it to the basement, you would 'expect' to come away with 2 franchise players after 6 years of basement dwelling - sounds about similar to how things typically play out
We get the following when we account for the lottery odds:
32ndoverall before the lottery
30.7% chance to get a franchise player
18.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
27.6% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
23.7% to get a Depth player or a bust
31st overall before the lottery
28.2% chance to get a franchise player
16.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
31.5% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
24.4% to get a Depth player or a bust
30th overall before the lottery
25.3% chance to get a franchise player
23.5% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
27.3% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
23.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
29th overall before the lottery
20.7% chance to get a franchise player
28.4% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
23.0% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
27.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
---
Math explained:
The worst team would have a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery, 18.8% of drafting 2nd, or 55.7% chance of drafting third*. The first overall pick resulted in a franchise player 56% of the time from 2004-2019, the 2nd overall pick resulted in a 31% chance, and the third overall pick resulted in a 19% chance.
In probability we use multiplication for AND, and addition for OR.
So using those odds we get 56% * 25.5% + 31% * 18.8% + 55.7% * 19% = 30.7%
* I used the numbers I found on the internet on Tankathon, I assume they changed the draft lottery odds slightly because a team finishing last could finish 4th before.
I only did the math for the teams that finish in the bottom 4, because the odds of picking a franchise player with the 7th overall pick and later weren't readily available, and I'm too lazy to calculate them to make an argument.
Whether or not we agree with the conclusion, this is an excellent post. I don't want it to slip through the Spurs topic without proper discussion.
It appears that it's quite difficult to get multiple franchise players, but it's relatively easy to get several "good" players reliably.
So if you tank it to the basement, you would 'expect' to come away with 2 franchise players after 6 years of basement dwelling - sounds about similar to how things typically play out
Yeah, pretty much.
1-2 franchise players(Tkachuk, McDavid, or Makar)
1-2 top line players(Hischier, Landeskog, or Huberdeau)
1 player like (Niederreiter, PLD, or Bennett)
1 depth player(Gudbranson, Galchenyuk, or L. Schenn)
0-1 bust(Juolevi, Yakupov, or Puljujarvi)
That doesn't include other picks that are acquired and made during that time. Personally, I don't think that it's a terrible outcome.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1qqaaz
Whether or not we agree with the conclusion, this is an excellent post. I don't want it to slip through the Spurs topic without proper discussion.
It appears that it's quite difficult to get multiple franchise players, but it's relatively easy to get several "good" players reliably.
Yeah, I'm not trying to present a conclusion per se. I just have a hard time looking at 25.5% to win the lottery, because it doesn't mean much to me without context. When I combine it with a 56% chance to draft a Crosby, Ovechking, or Matthews it makes it a lot easier to evaluate.
So if you tank it to the basement, you would 'expect' to come away with 2 franchise players after 6 years of basement dwelling - sounds about similar to how things typically play out
6 years of basement dwelling. Surely the way to success.
The flipside of the "30% chance at a franchise pick" is that you have a 70% chance of not getting a franchise pick. All in exchange for losing miserably.
And presumably if you don't get a franchise pick that first time, then the miserable losing stretches out.
Not picking on you at all, just presenting the downside of these scenarios. Seems that losing means you are mathematically more likely to increase your chance of losing more.
Last edited by Flames Fan, Ph.D.; 01-13-2024 at 02:55 PM.
Reason: lol... bad math
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Cale Makar will be 29 when he’s up for a contract. Wonder which dumbass GM is going to sign him to an 8 year deal.
Right but their contention window is going to be when a bunch of players who aren’t even drafted yet hit their primes.
An extra top-32 18 year old (++) is worth more than Noah Hanifin for the long term success of the Calgary Flames.
If Andersson wants to stay, keep him in the summer, or trade him with an extension in place for a 1st and two 2nds like every other player of his calibre gets traded for.
Yeah, pretty much.
1-2 franchise players(Tkachuk, McDavid, or Makar)
1-2 top line players(Hischier, Landeskog, or Huberdeau)
1 player like (Niederreiter, PLD, or Bennett)
1 depth player(Gudbranson, Galchenyuk, or L. Schenn)
0-1 bust(Juolevi, Yakupov, or Puljujarvi)
That doesn't include other picks that are acquired and made during that time. Personally, I don't think that it's a terrible outcome.
Of course, you can draft those players without tanking (say looking at the team as of 2020)
1-2 Franchise players: Tkachuk
1-2 Top line players: healthy Monahan, Gaudreau, Gio (OK not drafted but as good as), Fox
1 player like Bennett, Mangiapane,
1 depth player Dube
1 Bust: Jankowski
Whats more exciting though, being a basement team and getting excited about a top pick or being a bubble team wondering if you'll make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round or miss the playoffs and draft a player who's probably good enough to keep you mediocre.
As Flames fans, we've had more bubble than excitement.
__________________
Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
Whats more exciting though, being a basement team and getting excited about a top pick or being a bubble team wondering if you'll make the playoffs and get bounced in the first round or miss the playoffs and draft a player who's probably good enough to keep you mediocre.
As Flames fans, we've had more bubble than excitement.
I just wish we lived in a world where there was more than just these two choices
The Following User Says Thank You to Enoch Root For This Useful Post:
Right but their contention window is going to be when a bunch of players who aren’t even drafted yet hit their primes.
An extra top-32 18 year old (++) is worth more than Noah Hanifin for the long term success of the Calgary Flames.
If Andersson wants to stay, keep him in the summer, or trade him with an extension in place for a 1st and two 2nds like every other player of his calibre gets traded for.
They already have Weegar for the “wizened vet D”.
Those are nothing more than a bunch of ‘maybes’.
I’m skepticial that a first round pick, mid at best and likely late, plus a prospect is better for the Flames long term, as you’ve put it. I think a lot of people undervalue what a D man at Hanifin’s age and experience is worth. They’d be fortunate to see that first round pick and/or prospect turn out to be as useful as Hanifin.
The Flames are already on their way. They have several young players/prospects that look to be valuable pieces. I agree they are lacking a top/blue chip/franchise level talent but it seems to me they could have a good shot at acquiring one at this years draft.
In any event, if history is any indication, this team will continue to try and walk the razors edge of rebuilding while maintaining a competitive team. Competitive in the sense that they will not liquidate their assets and accept losing.
Of course, you can draft those players without tanking (say looking at the team as of 2020)
1-2 Franchise players: Tkachuk
1-2 Top line players: healthy Monahan, Gaudreau, Gio (OK not drafted but as good as), Fox
1 player like Bennett, Mangiapane,
1 depth player Dube
1 Bust: Jankowski
I thought the Flames were tanking when they drafted twice at 6th overall, and once at 4th overall.
Yes, you can get very good players later in the draft, or even as UFA signings. That said, a rebuild gives a team much higher odds at drafting higher quality players. It also typically gives a team more shots at lucking out on a later pick by having more picks, and giving the team more shots to swing for the fences.
I’m skepticial that a first round pick, mid at best and likely late, plus a prospect is better for the Flames long term, as you’ve put it. I think a lot of people undervalue what a D man at Hanifin’s age and experience is worth. They’d be fortunate to see that first round pick and/or prospect turn out to be as useful as Hanifin.
The Flames are already on their way. They have several young players/prospects that look to be valuable pieces. I agree they are lacking a top/blue chip/franchise level talent but it seems to me they could have a good shot at acquiring one at this years draft.
In any event, if history is any indication, this team will continue to try and walk the razors edge of rebuilding while maintaining a competitive team. Competitive in the sense that they will not liquidate their assets and accept losing.
Of course they’re maybes - you can’t rely on batting 1.000 on draft picks, you need more selections in to top 64 to increase your adds of finding viable players who will be with you for 10+ years.
And if they’re not going full scorched earth, they still need to make hay when they’re presented with seasons like this when it looks like they’re a bottom-10 team, and ensure they finish bottom-5.
We’re not doing anything with this roster - nobody on it would be the best player on any other team we’d play.
6 years of basement dwelling. Surely the way to success.
The flipside of the "30% chance at a franchise pick" is that you have a 70% chance of not getting a franchise pick. All in exchange for losing miserably.
And presumably if you don't get a franchise pick that first time, then the miserable losing stretches out.
Not picking on you at all, just presenting the downside of these scenarios. Seems that losing means you are mathematically more likely to increase your chance of losing more.
The only organization to win a cup since Detroit without top-5 picks playing crucial roles is Boston - the best run organization in the league.
Everyone else. Literally everyone else. Has had top-5 selections as part of their core.
It is impossible to win without them. If you play a team in the Finals and and they have more stars than you, you’re going to lose.
And parachuting someone else 3rd overall 29 year old LW is not the same thing and everyone knows it.
You could certainly be right on Markstrom and other contracts with additional years.
But don't agree on the UFAs.
You don't walk out saving a retention spot on the Zadorov deal if it's not a serious conversation internally. Plus we heard rumblings of Edwards oking retention if the return is better.
So I think they retain if they have to, but clearly won't if they don't.
Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
Which is why there was no retention on the Zadarov deal...it left all 3 slots availabe for the upcoming TDL. They will use it if it closes a deal.
Okay boys, as soon as the Flames engage in a retention situation, I will believe they will retain on contracts. It's like saying you can #### a super model and then claiming that because it hasn't happened the potential is there for it to happen. No. You HOPE it could happen. You TRY to make it happen. You would love FOR it to happen. But until it happens, it is a pipe dream. I will believe the Flames will retain on a contract when it happens more than once in team history. The potential should be there, but until Conroy gets permission to do so and it happens, its all speculative bull####.
The only organization to win a cup since Detroit without top-5 picks playing crucial roles is Boston - the best run organization in the league.
Everyone else. Literally everyone else. Has had top-5 selections as part of their core.
It is impossible to win without them. If you play a team in the Finals and and they have more stars than you, you’re going to lose.
And parachuting someone else 3rd overall 29 year old LW is not the same thing and everyone knows it.
How many teams have had top 5 selections and not won the Stanley Cup? I'm betting it's a larger number than the ones who have had top 5 selections and won the cup.
Okay boys, as soon as the Flames engage in a retention situation, I will believe they will retain on contracts. It's like saying you can #### a super model and then claiming that because it hasn't happened the potential is there for it to happen. No. You HOPE it could happen. You TRY to make it happen. You would love FOR it to happen. But until it happens, it is a pipe dream. I will believe the Flames will retain on a contract when it happens more than once in team history. The potential should be there, but until Conroy gets permission to do so and it happens, its all speculative bull####.
The Flames have bought out contracts and spent to the cap. It's not that different from retaining on a contract.
How many teams have had top 5 selections and not won the Stanley Cup? I'm betting it's a larger number than the ones who have had top 5 selections and won the cup.
What’s your point?
Vegas, Colorado, Tampa, St Louis, Washington, Pittsburgh, LA, and Carolina all had them.
Even Boston drafted Kessel, and Anaheim was anchored by Pronger (2nd overall) Niedermayer (4th overall).
You can’t win it all without top-5 draft picks in the cap era. It’s impossible.
Last edited by GreenLantern2814; 01-13-2024 at 04:08 PM.
