2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Flames were also lucky to draft Tkachuk because Vancouver was stupid

Happens every draft.

It’s not because one team is stupid it’s because they’re making judgements on 17-18 year olds.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

Fox, JG and Tkachuk. Pretty good drafting and a great trio to build on, so crappy that they all decided they didn’t want to be in Calgary.

Bringing up JG is a reminder that there is some luck involved, but also so gambling. Every scout and team knew that he had skill and likely had him somewhere on their list of players to draft in later rounds. It wasn't really luck IMO, but more how teams wanted to calculate the risk for drafting a player like that.

I recall it being reported that Feaster had both JG and Kucherov as players they would gamble on with later picks, and after Tampa took Kucherov in the 3rd round, Feaster knew he couldn't continue to gamble that Gaudreau would make it much later in the draft and snagged him in the 4th.

So I guess, is it really luck, or is it more about drafting philosophy and risk taking? Certainly some luck plays into it when it comes to players getting injured or becoming late bloomers, but I don't think teams are at the mercy of luck. Great scouting is the big difference maker IMO.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Spurs

Makar was the 4th overall pick, that isn't luck so much as being in a high draft position to draft an elite player. They also had McKinnon at 1 which likely takes them from being a very good team with Makar to a Cup winner with MacKinnon.

The Dallas draft is much better with Heiskanen at 3rd overall versus 7,8,9 and getting Anderson, Middelstat and Rasmussen.

As many examples there are for getting lucky and it working out there are 10x (if not more) examples of that luck not happening at all.

….huh?

The draft has quite a bit to do with luck. First off, it’s a lottery. The best odds any team can have of drafting 1OA is 25.5%.

I don’t gamble, but I would say those are not too favourable odds.

As for Makar, the Avalanche were lucky. In a redraft (and you do like hindsight) Makar goes 1st every day of the week and twice on Sunday. If the Avalanche didn’t have good luck or fortune or whatever, then I don’t know what luck is, I guess.

[chummer]

Spurs
Lifetime Suspension

[Pekkerhead]

Why couldn’t Makar be more like Fox? “ I’ll only play in Calgary.”

[Pekkerhead]

Originally Posted by chummer

Spurs
Lifetime Suspension

We need contrarian opinions or this site would just be a huge Flames love in and would get boring. Ideally without any personal insults added (not singling him or her out in this). It’s best with non-personal debate in my opinion.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

Why couldn’t Makar be more like Fox? “ I’ll only play in Calgary.”

2027.

But I’m told that the Flames would be stupid for signing a 29 year old to an 8 year deal.

[chummer]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

We need contrarian opinions or this site would just be a huge Flames love in and would get boring. Ideally without any personal insults added (not singling him or her out in this). It’s best with non-personal debate in my opinion.

Of course we do but we don't need trolls.

[Torture]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

We need contrarian opinions or this site would just be a huge Flames love in and would get boring. Ideally without any personal insults added (not singling him or her out in this). It’s best with non-personal debate in my opinion.

Welcome back Spurs.

[Ped]

Had that account since 2007. That's playing the long game...

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by TOfan

2027.

But I’m told that the Flames would be stupid for signing a 29 year old to an 8 year deal.

Try googling "context".

[topfiverecords]

Coincidence?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Happens every draft.

It’s not because one team is stupid it’s because they’re making judgements on 17-18 year olds.

nah they were stupid

everyone knew that was a mistake

[Pekkerhead]

Forgive my ignorance. I joined ages ago but didn’t really post until this season so I really don’t know the protocol on here. Do people actually get suspended from posting on this site? If so, what causes suspension and reinstatement?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

We need contrarian opinions or this site would just be a huge Flames love in and would get boring. Ideally without any personal insults added (not singling him or her out in this). It’s best with non-personal debate in my opinion.

100% always negative is not a "contrarian opinion"

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

Forgive my ignorance. I joined ages ago but didn’t really post until this season so I really don’t know the protocol on here. Do people actually get suspended from posting on this site? If so, what causes suspension and reinstatement?

You essentially have to beg for it, over and over again, like spurs did. The suspension I’m sure was 100% the end goal.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

Forgive my ignorance. I joined ages ago but didn’t really post until this season so I really don’t know the protocol on here. Do people actually get suspended from posting on this site? If so, what causes suspension and reinstatement?

My own view as a completely unofficial person:

In the case of Spurs, it was the constant stream of insults against other posters, and the invariable accusations of lying against anyone who called him out on it. He had a strong tendency to derail any thread he participated in, to the detriment of the board as a whole.

When he chose to use these methods on the owner of the site, I suspect that was the last straw. Bingo is a very fair-minded person and doesn't mind being disagreed with or even disrespected, but I suspect he nudged one of the moderators to look over Spurs’s whole history, and the mods decided enough was enough.

I myself (and I am not one of the better posters on this site) have incurred several ‘infractions’ over the years, and was once put in ‘the sin bin’, but I haven't managed to get myself banned. Yet.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Pekkerhead

We need contrarian opinions or this site would just be a huge Flames love in and would get boring. Ideally without any personal insults added (not singling him or her out in this). It’s best with non-personal debate in my opinion.

Contrarian opinions are not only welcome, they are the norm around here.

The problem with that poster, and the reason they got the suspension, had absolutely nothing to do with contrarian opinions.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by TOfan

….huh?

The draft has quite a bit to do with luck. First off, it’s a lottery. The best odds any team can have of drafting 1OA is 25.5%.

I don’t gamble, but I would say those are not too favourable odds.

As for Makar, the Avalanche were lucky. In a redraft (and you do like hindsight) Makar goes 1st every day of the week and twice on Sunday. If the Avalanche didn’t have good luck or fortune or whatever, then I don’t know what luck is, I guess.

I see the odds a little differently. Here are the pick odds you mention. If we combine those with the odds of drafting a franchise player/top player based on the last ~15 years.

We get the following when we account for the lottery odds:

• 32ndoverall before the lottery
  • 30.7% chance to get a franchise player
  • 18.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 27.6% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 23.7% to get a Depth player or a bust
• 31st overall before the lottery
  • 28.2% chance to get a franchise player
  • 16.0% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 31.5% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 24.4% to get a Depth player or a bust
• 30th overall before the lottery
  • 25.3% chance to get a franchise player
  • 23.5% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 27.3% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 23.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
• 29th overall before the lottery
  • 20.7% chance to get a franchise player
  • 28.4% chance to get a top line player or top 2D
  • 23.0% chance to get a top 6 player or top 4D
  • 27.8% to get a Depth player or a bust
  
  ---
• Math explained:
  • The worst team would have a 25.5% chance of winning the lottery, 18.8% of drafting 2nd, or 55.7% chance of drafting third*. The first overall pick resulted in a franchise player 56% of the time from 2004-2019, the 2nd overall pick resulted in a 31% chance, and the third overall pick resulted in a 19% chance.
  • In probability we use multiplication for AND, and addition for OR.
  • So using those odds we get 56% * 25.5% + 31% * 18.8% + 55.7% * 19% = 30.7%
  • * I used the numbers I found on the internet on Tankathon, I assume they changed the draft lottery odds slightly because a team finishing last could finish 4th before.

I only did the math for the teams that finish in the bottom 4, because the odds of picking a franchise player with the 7th overall pick and later weren't readily available, and I'm too lazy to calculate them to make an argument.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by dino7c

100% always negative is not a "contrarian opinion"

Didn’t follow why he got banned but being 100% negative is no reason for banning.