2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Louongo was traded at 34 and returned a high-end prospect.
He had a 9 years left on his $5.33/year contract too.

Another good example of a goalie getting a good return… a veteran goalie under contract. Although that was a long time ago and the league has changed quite a bit in regards to goaltenders these days. Fewer teams are investing heavily in their goaltending. Which might be why so many of them are struggling with keeping the puck out of their net. Could be a good time to trade a goalie like Markstrom.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

How do you know which ones are Danault and which ones are Anderson when you are signing UFAs though. I’m the opposite, pay the stars and avoid filler UFas like Neal, Brouwer etc. The issue with the Flames cap management was that it was tied up in mediocre UFAs which led to Tkachuk’s bridge and the implosion.
Much higher chance of internally replacing a Neal level guy than a Nylander level guy.

GM’s job to evaluate that. Though I’m not sure if you and I got in the same room together we’d be wrong appreciably more often than any of them are.

I agree to pay the stars, but you draft them and pay them after ELC. How many stars weren’t drafted by their team? Panarin, Zibanejad, Miller, DeBrincat. Tkachuk? Reinhart I guess but someone’s about to think he’s a star and overpay. Eichel, but that’s a long story. Adam Fox forced his way out like Tkachuk.

Not many.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by butterfly

GM’s job to evaluate that. Though I’m not sure if you and I got in the same room together we’d be wrong appreciably more often than any of them are.

I agree to pay the stars, but you draft them and pay them after ELC. How many stars weren’t drafted by their team? Panarin, Zibanejad, Miller, DeBrincat. Tkachuk? Reinhart I guess but someone’s about to think he’s a star and overpay. Eichel, but that’s a long story. Adam Fox forced his way out like Tkachuk.

Not many.

Well, what if you have a player drafted, let's say in the top 5. And then in his 25-28 year old seasons he puts up 1.2 points per game for almost 300 NHL games.

Is he a star? Do you sign him and keep him? He'd be expensive.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Matthews got a 4 year deal. They are getting all his best years and can let someone else pay the “look what he did” sucker’s deal.

Sooner or later GMs will figure out why players are so desperate for 8-year deals at the end of RFA or slightly later (they know they’re at their peak and the decline is about to start) and stop giving them out.

Maybe it is just me but I think Matthews signed a 4 year deal for 15.3% of the cap because his agent told him in 4 years after the escrow is rolled off and there are multiple years of 5% increases to make up for the general lack of increases over the past 3 years that signing another contract for 15.3% of a 104 million dollar cap or perhaps even taking a haircut and only signing for 14.5% of a 104 million dollar cap would be more money.

It may be my low opinion of Treliving but I don’t think Matthews signed for 4 years because the GM got smart and told him to walk if he wanted anything more than 4 years.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

GM’s job to evaluate that. Though I’m not sure if you and I got in the same room together we’d be wrong appreciably more often than any of them are.

I agree to pay the stars, but you draft them and pay them after ELC. How many stars weren’t drafted by their team? Panarin, Zibanejad, Miller, DeBrincat. Tkachuk? Reinhart I guess but someone’s about to think he’s a star and overpay. Eichel, but that’s a long story. Adam Fox forced his way out like Tkachuk.

Not many.

Star UFAs have typically stayed on the same team that drafted or traded for them. Gaudreau, Tavares, and Panarin are the exceptions. I think it’s pretty simple in the sense that teams should sign their star UFAs while in playoff contention and trade them when they aren’t. That is hard to pull off in practice though, especially when their job is to win a cup. Most teams end up firing the GM that failed and they leave a mess to clean up.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

Louongo was traded at 34 and returned a high-end prospect.

Sorry, which? I missed that.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Maybe it is just me but I think Matthews signed a 4 year deal for 15.3% of the cap because his agent told him in 4 years after the escrow is rolled off and there are multiple years of 5% increases to make up for the general lack of increases over the past 3 years that signing another contract for 15.3% of a 104 million dollar cap or perhaps even taking a haircut and only signing for 14.5% of a 104 million dollar cap would be more money.

It may be my low opinion of Treliving but I don’t think Matthews signed for 4 years because the GM got smart and told him to walk if he wanted anything more than 4 years.

Exactly. There wasn’t any benevolence on Matthews part. It was to get the bag on his last contract.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Exactly. There wasn’t any benevolence on Matthews part. It was to get the bag on his last contract.

How come Nylander won’t do it then? Or others? Selling point for a GM…

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

How come Nylander won’t do it then? Or others? Selling point for a GM…

Nylander probably would if he was the same age as Matthews

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Well, what if you have a player drafted, let's say in the top 5. And then in his 25-28 year old seasons he puts up 1.2 points per game for almost 300 NHL games.

Is he a star? Do you sign him and keep him? He'd be expensive.

Definitely a star, and I’d love to keep him. Not on a max term deal though.

3-4 year deal, trade, or one last playoff run (if the team looked great).

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Nylander probably would if he was the same age as Matthews

A 3-year deal I mean. Then they’ll be the same age when their deals are over.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by butterfly

A 3-year deal I mean. Then they’ll be the same age when their deals are over.

Because he isn't at the same level as Matthews. He'll take his money and run.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Definitely a star, and I’d love to keep him. Not on a max term deal though.

3-4 year deal, trade, or one last playoff run (if the team looked great).

So basically you would end up walking any star UFA to free agency without recouping assets anytime your team was a playoff team because the goal is still to win a cup and not maximize cap space.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Definitely a star, and I’d love to keep him. Not on a max term deal though.

3-4 year deal, trade, or one last playoff run (if the team looked great).

What about a player not picked in top 10 of the draft but a first rounder. From ages 25-28 he puts up 0.9 points per game do you sign him long term? Is he a star?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Exactly. There wasn’t any benevolence on Matthews part. It was to get the bag on his last contract.

I think it was more like “hey, the cap was 81.5 million in 19-20. Due to the Covid repayments it has gone up by 2 million in 4 years since then. My gut as your agent now that the Covid repayments will be completed this year is that it will go up by about 4.5 million a year on average over the 4 years of your contract. That would move us from 87.5 million to 105.5 million by the time a 4 year deal is done. After that the increases will decrease as a percentage of the total cap similar to the lower increases from 2014-2020 (12.5 million total over 5 years). Let’s sign a 4 year deal”.

The midpoint for salary has gone from 70.9 million a team to 72.6 million a team since 2019/2020. I am sure the agents are assuming that revenue has increased by more than 0.4% a year over that period of time. They are probably just banking on a big cap in 2029 in the Matthews camp rather than waiting to sign a longterm deal.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

So basically you would end up walking any star UFA to free agency without recouping assets anytime your team was a playoff team because the goal is still to win a cup and not maximize cap space.

It’s a difficult decision to make. I would not do that if I was the 2024 Coyotes, but I would do that if I was the 2019 Lightning (even though they got swept out of the first round). Is trading better than going for a playoff run? Reasonable people can disagree.

2022 Flames unintentionally did that with Gaudreau. It’s not like you get “nothing”, you get a chance at a playoff run. I don’t think anyone here cared about contract status when he scored on Oettinger in Game 7.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

What about a player not picked in top 10 of the draft but a first rounder. From ages 25-28 he puts up 0.9 points per game do you sign him long term? Is he a star?

Borderline, definitely a good player. I would almost never sign a 28 year old to a max term deal. The time for that is at age 21-22.

I would be happy to have them back, but I want the security of cutting bait when they get bad, and minimizing the risk of being on the hook for an albatross. There are so many more constructive and creative things to do with cap space than spend it on an albatross retirement deal with a NMC.

[butterfly]

To frame the argument a different way, I think we can all agree that 8 is an arbitrary number.

What would you do if the CBA allowed for 9 year deals and the players were all demanding them? 10? 11?

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

It’s a difficult decision to make. I would not do that if I was the 2024 Coyotes, but I would do that if I was the 2019 Lightning (even though they got swept out of the first round). Is trading better than going for a playoff run? Reasonable people can disagree.

2022 Flames unintentionally did that with Gaudreau. It’s not like you get “nothing”, you get a chance at a playoff run. I don’t think anyone here cared about contract status when he scored on Oettinger in Game 7.

So let’s pretend the Tkachuk thing didn’t happen. Your boss tells you the goal is to win and they aren’t happy with a rebuild right now. Gaudreau signs in Columbus and now the Flames are worse and need to trade for a replacement or sign some worse filler UFAs.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

To frame the argument a different way, I think we can all agree that 8 is an arbitrary number.

What would you do if the CBA allowed for 9 year deals and the players were all demanding them? 10? 11?

Then your argument would be even harder to make in my opinion Most stars would be on 11 year deals after their elcs or second contracts depending on their trajectory. You’d have to make the decision to sign or trade them even younger.