2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Which of those teams I listed wants to trade Calgary picks and prospects in order to pay Markstrom 3x$3M?

Who has won a playoff series isn't how GMs should be looking at it. It's who will win a playoff series that hasn't happened yet. And there are very few goaltenders left in the league older than Markstrom.

Now go find goalies that are better than him, cheaper than 3 million, available, and have success at the NHL level. That is why.

You can't just hand wave it away and say that there must be ECHL goalies and European goalies that want league min that will do the same thing. There should be multiple examples you can pull if it is that easy.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think you are grossly underestimating how hard it is to make the jump into the NHL. Can you find a single example of a guy who went ECHL directly into a starter role in the NHL?

No, I said yesterday that I wish someone would try it though. I doubt anyone has the guts to do it. I'm not sure how we can grossly underestimate it if there's no data.

Just offer Halak $1M, I'm sure he'd play. You give up nothing and get a Markstrom level performance for cheaper and keep all your picks.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I think you are grossly underestimating how hard it is to make the jump into the NHL. Can you find a single example of a guy who went ECHL directly into a starter role in the NHL?

Yup. I mean, a guy like Wolf who burned up the AHL has not got the NHL stats that some people rely on as the sign of a good goalie. It's just not that easy.

I think Markstrom has played miles better this year. I doubt his stats say so. But goalie stats are tricky and there's so many variables that affect the result. At the end of the day I can't think of a game that was on him. But I can think oif quite a few where they wouldn't be in the game without him making so good saves.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Now go find goalies that are better than him, cheaper than 3 million, available, and have success at the NHL level. That is why.

You can't just hand wave it away and say that there must be ECHL goalies and European goalies that want league min that will do the same thing. There should be multiple examples you can pull if it is that easy.

I don't know, David Rittich? Didn't we pluck him from a European league? Guy had a better SV% on the Flames than Markstrom.

[GioforPM]

Rittich was signed from Europe and played 31 games in the AHL, then played 1 NHL game. Then he started the next season in the A aghain, before finally coming in permanently as a backup.

Funny thing about stats - Rittich went from .904 save% in Calgary immediately to .888 with the Leafs. And .886 the next year. Did he suddenly become a worse goalie in Toronto? Or did the team have something to do with it?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Rittich was signed from Europe and played 31 games in the AHL, then played 1 NHL game. Then he started the next season in the A aghain, before finally coming in permanently as a backup.

Funny thing about stats - Rittich went from .904 save% in Calgary immediately to .888 with the Leafs. And .886 the next year. Did he suddenly become a worse goalie in Toronto? Or did the team have something to do with it?

Yeah, in four games. And he went from a 2.90 GAA to a 2.72 GAA in those very important four games. Are you arguing that good teams have less of a need for good goaltending? I'd agree with that.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Rittich was signed from Europe and played 31 games in the AHL, then played 1 NHL game. Then he started the next season in the A aghain, before finally coming in permanently as a backup.

Funny thing about stats - Rittich went from .904 save% in Calgary immediately to .888 with the Leafs. And .886 the next year. Did he suddenly become a worse goalie in Toronto? Or did the team have something to do with it?

I think part of it with him, and other flash-in-the-pan guys is weaknesses are spotted and then exploited. And if the goalie can't correct - they are out of the league soon.

[Enoch Root]

Butterfly: Wolf's stats are worse than Markstrom's so far this year - is Wolf a worse goalie?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Butterfly: Wolf's stats are worse than Markstrom's so far this year - is Wolf a worse goalie?

Ooh, dangerous question. I'd probably give him more than 5 career starts in order to make a determination, is that fair? The AHL career sure looks promising and I'm in love with his salary and age.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Buyouts and terminations are quite different from using cap space to make deals work. This is uncharted territory for the club.



And in those 10-12 years has the team made a deal where they weaponized cap space? Nope. That's the point. They've talked about it, but never pulled the trigger. Until they do it the rest is all noise about what they are prepared to do.



And? It means a deal wasn't there to be made and the Flames are still not willing to make a deal where they retain salary. It is obvious their asking price is not aligned with what other clubs think is the market or fair so that cap space is useless. Unless you can agree to a deal then cap space is useless.



Sure, they may be open to retention. I'm more than open to selling my car, so long as someone comes in with an all cash offer a million over market. When the conditions you place on a deal are not considered reasonable are you really open to making a deal? The Flames may have agreed to retain on the deal but their demand for doing so appears to have been an ask that got the phone hung up on them. It would have been nice to know what the demand was because that would tell us how enthusiastic the Flames are on retention. If the ask was the Leafs' 1st rounder, then that may be reasonable. If the ask was the pick and the Leaf's best two prospects as compensation for retention, then you would be able to understand how enthusiastic the club is about retention. That's why I take the position that retention is unlikely until we see the Flames make a deal where retention happens and prove they are really willing to use that function to their advantage.

Oh dear, CP’s biggest blowhard is all wound up.

Let’s be honest, no one is paying a million dollars over the list price of your Dodge Reliant.

If only Treliving had listened to your Gaudreau for Vorachek, Frost and a 1st, or Tkachuck for Purunivich, 1st and cap dump trades you were on about over the years. Or have you conveniently forgotten about those horrendous ideas you had to offer. If only Treliving was that smart….

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think part of it with him, and other flash-in-the-pan guys is weaknesses are spotted and then exploited. And if the goalie can't correct - they are out of the league soon.

There's something to be said for a strategy of cycling through people like these and never paying them big money.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I don't know, David Rittich? Didn't we pluck him from a European league? Guy had a better SV% on the Flames than Markstrom.

He still needed two years of development and had a couple decent seasons and is now out of the league. Consistently keeping a starter job is hard. Markstrom would get signed by another team if he was bought out.
The middle ground is probably that most teams can by with middle of the road goaltending if they are good. I don’t think it’s viable to plug in ECHL randoms as a starter and call it a winning argument. ECHL guys barely hack it in the AHL. Euro leagues are a little better but not much. It is the same with skaters, how many of the hyped Euro free agent signings work out, 1 in 5?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Butterfly: Wolf's stats are worse than Markstrom's so far this year - is Wolf a worse goalie?

Gtfo with this hot take. Disingenuous position.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by butterfly

There's something to be said for a strategy of cycling through people like these and never paying them big money.

If you can be the team that has a consistent pipeline of Rittich like guys to cycle through. I don’t think that supply is there or else teams would be doing it.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Gtfo with this hot take. Disingenuous position.

In this discussion it isn’t. She is using sample sizes of 6 for other goalies

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

He still needed two years of development and had a couple decent seasons and is now out of the league. Consistently keeping a starter job is hard. Markstrom would get signed by another team if he was bought out.
The middle ground is probably that most teams can by with middle of the road goaltending if they are good. I don’t think it’s viable to plug in ECHL randoms as a starter and call it a winning argument. ECHL guys barely hack it in the AHL. Euro leagues are a little better but not much. It is the same with skaters, how many of the hyped Euro free agent signings work out, 1 in 5?

So constantly recruit them. Goaltending has so much randomness in it that it's pointless to spend money on it.

Rittich is only out of the league because the Kings spent next to nothing on goaltending as I am advocating for and two of the three led them to the best GA in the league.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

In this discussion it isn’t. She is using sample sizes of 6 for other goalies

Yeah, I didn't think it was disingenuous either. Fair question.

[SuperMatt18]

The thing with Markstrom is there are underlying stats that will make teams think he can bounce back.

Overall his .907 save percentage over the last three seasons ranks 28th among goalies that have played 2500 minutes or more...that's not earth shattering but it's still an improvement for some teams.

Where I think teams would be interested are a couple of areas.

1) Minutes played - 8064 minutes which ranks behind Saros and Hellebuyck only in the NHL. It's hard to find a goalie that can actually play those minutes, and I think some teams would probably anticipate a bit of improvement with fewer minutes.

2) High Danger Save Percentage - .833 Save Percentage which ranks 8th in the NHL. He's actually been fine at saving the high danger chances, teams will place value in that, and speaks that it's not that he's lost agility or ability.

3) Low Danger Save Percentage - .967 Save Percentage which is T-17th in the NHL with Vasilevskiy. So his issue has not been low danger chances...so another thing that NHL GMs will look at. .974 save percentage leads the NHL, so he's closer to the top than he is to the bottom.

So GMs will look at the fact that he can play big minutes, and that his high danger and low danger chances have been on the better side of the entire NHL.

The real issue has been medium chances - .886 save percentage (-10.8 GSAA) which really is a bit of a tough one to pin down. But I do think that something around Calgary's d-zone coverage and struggles with boxing out in front of the net play a factor.

I think NHL GMs will look at the entire body of work over the three years...look that the high danger quality has been great, look that the low danger quality has been fine and think that they will be able to figure out why he's struggling with medium danger.

At $3M that becomes a pretty calculated and smart risk when you're able to potentially get a goalie that can handle playing those minutes.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The thing with Markstrom is there are underlying stats that will make teams think he can bounce back.

Overall his .907 save percentage over the last three seasons ranks 28th among goalies that have played 2500 minutes or more...that's not earth shattering but it's still an improvement for some teams.

Where I think teams would be interested are a couple of areas.

1) Minutes played - 8064 minutes which ranks behind Saros and Hellebuyck only in the NHL. It's hard to find a goalie that can actually play those minutes, and I think some teams would probably anticipate a bit of improvement with fewer minutes.

2) High Danger Save Percentage - .833 Save Percentage which ranks 8th in the NHL. He's actually been fine at saving the high danger chances, teams will place value in that, and speaks that it's not that he's lost agility or ability.

3) Low Danger Save Percentage - .967 Save Percentage which is T-17th in the NHL with Vasilevskiy. So his issue has not been low danger chances...so another thing that NHL GMs will look at. .974 save percentage leads the NHL, so he's closer to the top than he is to the bottom.

So GMs will look at the fact that he can play big minutes, and that his high danger and low danger chances have been on the better side of the entire NHL.

The real issue has been medium chances - .886 save percentage (-10.8 GSAA) which really is a bit of a tough one to pin down. But I do think that something around Calgary's d-zone coverage and struggles with boxing out in front of the net play a factor.

I think NHL GMs will look at the entire body of work over the three years...look that the high danger quality has been great, look that the low danger quality has been fine and think that they will be able to figure out why he's struggling with medium danger.

At $3M that becomes a pretty calculated and smart risk when you're able to potentially get a goalie that can handle playing those minutes.

I don't think it makes sense to limit the scope to such few goaltenders, but let's look at it. 17th out of 28 on low danger chances? That's below average. And there is survivorship bias with these people who keep getting chance after chance, likely because of their contract situations. There are goaltenders not on the list who would have done better.

I can't figure out the medium danger chances either but the Flames have been giving up a lot of those, at least this year. They've been average at limiting high and low danger chances.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Which of those teams I listed wants to trade Calgary picks and prospects in order to pay Markstrom 3x$3M?

Who has won a playoff series isn't how GMs should be looking at it. It's who will win a playoff series that hasn't happened yet. And there are very few goaltenders left in the league older than Markstrom.

There are 9 goalies older than Markstrom. Out of those goalies, over half are still doing quite well. Talbot(Age - 35, sv% .927), Quick(37, .922), Varlamov(35, .922), Bobrovsky(34, .911), and Reimer(35, .911).

Teams I see being interested in Markstrom with a $3M x 3 price tag, that would be willing to give up picks and prospects for a quick fix: EDM, NJD, CAR.

Teams that might bet tempted if the price is right: SEA, OTT(If we take back Forsberg), LAK(insurance/replacement for Talbot).