2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by butterfly

$6 million of dead money is easily a 1st round pick. Ask Montreal who actually got one year of Sean Monahan for that. If that's what they're offering, I'd do it too.

Anything less, I'd rather use the retention slots on the pending UFAs.

My standards are less, I'd retain 2 years at $3mil on Markstrom for a 2nd, easily. Gives us a 2nd round pick this year (very valuable) AND opens up $3mil in cap space to further weaponize in other trades to get more picks.

Yes, yes and yes. We need to stop thinking about using cap space to sign players and compete and start using it to aquire pick after pick. Markstrom for a 2nd and retention could easily end up being Markstrom for a second AND another 2nd/3rd due to additional space.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Think about it carefully. Would you take a 3rd round pick from New Jersey to retain, or would you offer him straight up for nothing and weaponize the $6M cap space? Teams are going to be trying to dump contracts to go after people like Draisaitl.

I don't appreciate the "think about it caerfully", but yeah, that's fair. I guess it comes down to

a) retain for higher pick now + weaponize $3mil cap space vs;

b) take lower pick now + weaponize $6mil cap space

Couldn't begin to tell you which would come out ahead. I guess I don't trust the Flames with cap space, but that might be PTSD from Treliving who would fill $6mil space with a bruising 4th liner and 6th defenceman.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I would not avoid 2 years of salary retention at all if it got us a much better return. We may not be wanting to full rebuild but even in a retool you do that every day of the week if it nets a better pick. $3mil retained for two years when we have no business contending? Hell yeah, you do that every time.

Unless you want to keep selling next year, so I could see not doing that in a full rebuild. But if somebody actually wants Mr Anti-Clutch and makes a good offer this year I'd probably do it.

[PepsiFree]

Retaining on Markstrom is weaponizing the cap space.

We’re a very short time away from having around $15-$20M in space without moving Markstrom. We don’t need to worry about leaving an extra $3 free just in case when it means forgoing a decent pick to do it.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by jayswin

My standards are less, I'd retain 2 years at $3mil on Markstrom for a 2nd, easily. Gives us a 2nd round pick this year (very valuable) AND opens up $3mil in cap space to further weaponize in other trades to get more picks.

Yes, yes and yes. We need to stop thinking about using cap space to sign players and compete and start using it to aquire pick after pick. Markstrom for a 2nd and retention could easily end up being Markstrom for a second AND another 2nd/3rd due to additional space.

A 2nd round pick in any year is very valuable but I think you can buy one for less than $6 million, and without tying your hands in a (shhh...don't say it...rebuild) by occupying a retention slot for two years. We can use those on Mangiapane and Vladar next year hopefully.

Originally Posted by jayswin

I don't appreciate the "think about it caerfully", but yeah, that's fair. I guess it comes down to

a) retain for higher pick now + weaponize $3mil cap space vs;

b) take lower pick now + weaponize $6mil cap space

Couldn't begin to tell you which would come out ahead. I guess I don't trust the Flames with cap space, but that might be PTSD from Treliving who would fill $6mil space with a bruising 4th liner and 6th defenceman.

I couldn't tell you either which is why we should probably think about it carefully. Sorry if you were offended by that.

I'd rather the Flames be ruthless in weaponizing the space like the Canadiens were with us. I don't blame them but they easily won that trade because Calgary was desperate. I want to take advantage of a desperate team so we can be the ones to pillage their draft capital.

[Manhattanboy]

Hopefully Mangiapane takes Dube with him. Nice guys but they both need a new address.

[MrMike]

I agree, no one would pay what retaining on Markstroms contract would really be worth, and I have a hard time believing the Flames have any appetite for retaining that much money for that long.
On year contracts to UFAs, sell retained at the deadline = unlimited second and thirds. He’ll look at how Arizona loaded up on all of those picks.

[MrMike]

Philly traded Shayne Gostisbehere and his 4.5m cap hit to Arizona, a 2nd and a 7th with 2 years left on his contract, then the Yotes trade him for a 3rd at the deadline in his final year.

That is exactly the type of trades this team should be doing, while retaining on players that are ours or as a third party to get extra picks.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by butterfly

No idea; I don't know him. Maybe he doesn't want to move more than he wants to win.

If you retain and the acquiring team does a buyout you're left sitting there helplessly crying for four years. I'd rather trade him straight up for future considerations if both the Devils and Markstrom are interested.

Dude, there are two years left on Marky’s contract, and at $3M no one is buying him out. You think someone would acquire him now, and buy him out in this off-season?

Your risk tolerance is bafflingly low.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Dude, there are two years left on Marky’s contract, and at $3M no one is buying him out. You think someone would acquire him now, and buy him out in this off-season?

Your risk tolerance is bafflingly low.

Can we cut out the dudebro stuff? What would you expect from a $3M goaltender when the top 10 in the league at save percentage have an AAV of $2.1M? Do you not think that's overpaid and hence at least some non-zero risk to be bought out? What if the Devils make the playoffs and Markstrom plays against some team like what we saw against Edmonton?

[SuperMatt18]

Only way I'm retaining 50% on Markstrom is with a 1st coming back.

If all you're getting is a 2nd then that's horrible return for Markstrom and the salary retention.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Can we cut out the dudebro stuff? What would you expect from a $3M goaltender when the top 10 in the league at save percentage have an AAV of $2.1M? Do you not think that's overpaid and hence at least some non-zero risk to be bought out? What if the Devils make the playoffs and Markstrom plays against some team like what we saw against Edmonton?

I think a 50% retained Markstrom for 2 seasons is a close to zero % chance of a buy out biting us. And even if it was in year two (zero chance it's in year one) what would that buy out penalty to Calgary even be? I can't imagine it's much.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I think a 50% retained Markstrom for 2 seasons is a close to zero % chance of a buy out biting us? And even if it was in year two (zero chance it's in year one) what would that buy out penalty to Calgary even be? I can't imagine it's much.

I think it would be $1.5Mx2 but I'm not certain. And then it doubles the time that a retention slot is occupied.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Only way I'm retaining 50% on Markstrom is with a 1st coming back.

If all you're getting is a 2nd then that's horrible return for Markstrom and the salary retention.

I disagree. We're a few months removed from the idea that Markstrom was untradable, now he's slightly recovered. I'd happily take a 2nd (people undervalue this pick - think of how many times you think a guy is going for a second or a prospect + a 2nd and it's a third).

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I think it would be $1.5Mx2 but I'm not certain. And then it doubles the time that a retention slot is occupied.

Ah, didn't know it doubled the retention slot time, that's important. Thanks for that.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Philly traded Shayne Gostisbehere and his 4.5m cap hit to Arizona, a 2nd and a 7th with 2 years left on his contract, then the Yotes trade him for a 3rd at the deadline in his final year.

That is exactly the type of trades this team should be doing, while retaining on players that are ours or as a third party to get extra picks.

Maybe someone like Connor Clifton(3 x $3.333M)? He's having a pretty bad start in BUF despite doing quite well in BOS last year. Dvorak(2 x $4.5M) is in a similar set of circumstances in MTL in my opinion.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Can we cut out the dudebro stuff? What would you expect from a $3M goaltender when the top 10 in the league at save percentage have an AAV of $2.1M? Do you not think that's overpaid and hence at least some non-zero risk to be bought out? What if the Devils make the playoffs and Markstrom plays against some team like what we saw against Edmonton?

No, I won’t cut out the “dudebro stuff”.

Yeah, if that situation actually played out, I believe I’d be safe in saying there’s zero percent chance that Markstrom gets bought.

I think there’s pretty much a zero percent chance Markstrom gets bought out at $6M.

Being worried about an acquiring team buying out a player who they just acquired with retained 50%? Yeah, that’s nowhere on my list of things to worry about. Hell, even if that happened - do you know what the penalty would be for the next 4 years? About $1.83M, $1.83M, $0.58M, $0.58M. The return for Marky at 50%? Yeah, probably a first. Pretty much every team in this league would pay that cap penalty for a 1st round pick.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No, I won’t cut out the “dudebro stuff”.

Well, you should. It's needlessly annoying.

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, if that situation actually played out, I believe I’d be safe in saying there’s zero percent chance that Markstrom gets bought.

I think there’s pretty much a zero percent chance Markstrom gets bought out at $6M.

Being worried about an acquiring team buying out a player who they just acquired with retained 50%? Yeah, that’s nowhere on my list of things to worry about. Hell, even if that happened - do you know what the penalty would be for the next 4 years? About $1.83M, $1.83M, $0.58M, $0.58M. The return for Marky at 50%? Yeah, probably a first. Pretty much every team in this league would pay that cap penalty for a 1st round pick.

A 1st round pick? Do you think there's a single team in this league that would sign Markstrom at 3x$3M right now for free, let alone giving up a 1st round pick?

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No, I won’t cut out the “dudebro stuff”.

Yeah, if that situation actually played out, I believe I’d be safe in saying there’s zero percent chance that Markstrom gets bought.

I think there’s pretty much a zero percent chance Markstrom gets bought out at $6M.

Being worried about an acquiring team buying out a player who they just acquired with retained 50%? Yeah, that’s nowhere on my list of things to worry about. Hell, even if that happened - do you know what the penalty would be for the next 4 years? About $1.83M, $1.83M, $0.58M, $0.58M. The return for Marky at 50%? Yeah, probably a first. Pretty much every team in this league would pay that cap penalty for a 1st round pick.

At least change it to dudette then... I believe that's the only reason SHE mentioned it, hehe.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

No, I won’t cut out the “dudebro stuff”.

Yeah, if that situation actually played out, I believe I’d be safe in saying there’s zero percent chance that Markstrom gets bought.

I think there’s pretty much a zero percent chance Markstrom gets bought out at $6M.

Being worried about an acquiring team buying out a player who they just acquired with retained 50%? Yeah, that’s nowhere on my list of things to worry about. Hell, even if that happened - do you know what the penalty would be for the next 4 years? About $1.83M, $1.83M, $0.58M, $0.58M. The return for Marky at 50%? Yeah, probably a first. Pretty much every team in this league would pay that cap penalty for a 1st round pick.

I'll maintain that we are not getting a 1st round pick for Markstrom retention or not. I just can't see it. I think a 2nd with 50% retention would be a huge win for this franchise, I'd personally be ecstatic. I feel fans haven't latched onto the increasing starnglehold on getting into the first round of the draft, these days.