2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Bayfield is becoming a great player. L.A is a terrifying team.

The idea that Byfield could be had in a deal with Calgary was insane. Stunned it was even brouhgt up.

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by jayswin

The idea that Byfield could be had in a deal with Calgary was insane. Stunned it was even brouhgt up.

I can show you how it gets brought up.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And rightly so. The Flames are not finishing out the season with one experienced NHL-quality defenceman.

Why not, the Oilers have done it that way for years.

[Sandman]

The idea of getting Brandt Clarke out of LA is just as insane as the idea of getting Byfield. Clarke put up 2 points per game in the OHL last year in the regular season and in the playoffs (granted, he only played 31 games, but I can’t recall another D from major junior ever doing that), and is over a ppg in the AHL this year. He’s going to be a superstar.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Not to mention Clark’s ELC as a much needed thing next season.

[stemit14]

I do wonder what the flames could hypothetically get if they retained say $2.5 million on Kadri. Not saying it’s a pressing thing to do as he is playing really well with the kids. Just wondering if there is a desperate team out there with a window to win that is only 3-4 years and doesn’t really care about the consequences of his long contract after that… it’s how most people justified the original signing of Kadri. It just turned out that the team went the other direction and is now about to enter a rebuild.

Some examples that come to mind off the top of my head are Colorado, Carolina, Florida, Pittsburgh, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Not saying all/any of those teams would be interested… just that those teams are basically all-in on a win-now window that could close in 3-4 years.

I know it’s very unlikely flames ownership would ever retain that much for that long on a player… but, hypothetically, if they did and the flames were to trade him before the TDL while he is playing as well as he has been… what do you think they could get for him at $2.5 million retained? That put’s his cap hit at $4.5 million/year for the next 5 years after this one. Does that make him worth a late first round pick? Or is it still a salary dump that the flames would have to add just to get rid of him? I don’t know.

I think your best bet to get Kadri traded would be in season while he’s playing well. In the offseason… GMs will look more at his age and his contract and start to assume he could immediately decline. This season, at least at the moment, he looks good. You might entice a GM with a team that is at the top of their division to go for it right here, right now. Honestly, if I had to pick a team, I could see Boston going for it. Their first round pick will likely be late anyways so they might be willing to part with it.

Can’t say I’d eagerly want to trade him because he seems to do well with Zary… but that’s really the only good reason I can think of right now considering where the flames are headed. And I don’t really know if that would be a good enough reason to walk away from a chance to gain a good pick while shedding salary.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Sure, but how often does that happen? Most teams in the 11-15 ranges aren't paying to move up to 6-10. Do you have examples of where it happened, and the return was worth it?

• In 2005 the Sharks acquired the 8th overall(Devin Setoguchi) for the 12th(Marc Staal), 49th, and 207th pick.
• In 2007 the Sharks acquired the 9th overall(Logan Coture) for the 13th(Lars Eller), 44th, and a 3rd(87th) in 08.
• In 2008 the Preds acquired the 7th overall(Colin Wilson) for the 9th(Josh Bailey), and the 40th pick.

That's all I got. I think TOR traded for the Bogosian pick, but it was 5th overall.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I do wonder what the flames could hypothetically get if they retained say $2.5 million on Kadri. Not saying it’s a pressing thing to do as he is playing really well with the kids. Just wondering if there is a desperate team out there with a window to win that is only 3-4 years and doesn’t really care about the consequences of his long contract after that… it’s how most people justified the original signing of Kadri. It just turned out that the team went the other direction and is now about to enter a rebuild.

Some examples that come to mind off the top of my head are Colorado, Carolina, Florida, Pittsburgh, Boston, and Tampa Bay. Not saying all/any of those teams would be interested… just that those teams are basically all-in on a win-now window that could close in 3-4 years.

I know it’s very unlikely flames ownership would ever retain that much for that long on a player… but, hypothetically, if they did and the flames were to trade him before the TDL while he is playing as well as he has been… what do you think they could get for him at $2.5 million retained? That put’s his cap hit at $4.5 million/year for the next 5 years after this one. Does that make him worth a late first round pick? Or is it still a salary dump that the flames would have to add just to get rid of him? I don’t know.

I think your best bet to get Kadri traded would be in season while he’s playing well. In the offseason… GMs will look more at his age and his contract and start to assume he could immediately decline. This season, at least at the moment, he looks good. You might entice a GM with a team that is at the top of their division to go for it right here, right now. Honestly, if I had to pick a team, I could see Boston going for it. Their first round pick will likely be late anyways so they might be willing to part with it.

Can’t say I’d eagerly want to trade him because he seems to do well with Zary… but that’s really the only good reason I can think of right now considering where the flames are headed. And I don’t really know if that would be a good enough reason to walk away from a chance to gain a good pick while shedding salary.

I could see Colorado going for Kadri. He worked so well on that team, and was fantastic in their Cup run. Can't imagine how the salary would fit though.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Sandman

I could see Colorado going for Kadri. He worked so well on that team, and was fantastic in their Cup run. Can't imagine how the salary would fit though.

They could afford Lindholm retained though.

[Toonage]

Interesting article on Tanev from Lebrun his morning (the Athletic). He thinks they could get a 1st from Toronto:

Chris Tanev’s injury is of the day-to-day nature, the Calgary Flames announced Tuesday, which is a relief on many levels.

It’s also a reminder of the Catch-22 any team poised to sell ahead of the March 8 trade deadline is facing.

As I reported last week, the Flames have indicated to teams with interest in Tanev that they’re in no hurry to make a decision on that front. The veteran blueliner means a lot to them both on and off the ice, and there’s a lot of hockey still to be played this season.

That approach also allows for the market to further develop for him and for interested teams to be in a better position to accommodate his $4.5 million cap hit. The closer to March 8, the easier that is.

There is a team that could make that move now, though, the Toronto Maple Leafs having lost John Klingberg for the season and whisked away his $4.15 million cap hit onto long-term injured reserve. And, well, Leafs GM Brad Treliving, as many have indicated before, is all too familiar and very much interested in Tanev, having brought him to Calgary from Vancouver in the first place.

But again, the Flames are in no rush. Heck, in a perfect world, I suspect they trade Tanev later this season for a much-needed future asset then try to bring him back July 1 as an unrestricted free agent.

It’s a good thought, although you don’t see it work out that way very often.

The question is, what would it take for the Leafs to force the issue ahead of time? A first-round pick, that’s probably what.

I think if the Leafs were willing to move their June first-rounder, they could potentially entice the Flames into getting this done sooner rather than later. Too rich a price? Maybe. But Ben Chiarot, a similar type of defenseman who was also a pending UFA, went for a first-round pick two seasons ago from Montreal to Florida. David Savard, another rugged, physical, shot-blocking defenseman, also went for a first-rounder from Columbus (via Detroit) to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline in 2020-21, so I don’t think it’s completely greedy for the Flames to be thinking first, even if they end up settling for a second and/or a prospect instead.

Notably, the Habs waited on that Chiarot deal. He played 54 games for them in 2021-22 before getting dealt to the Panthers in March. General manager Kent Hughes decided he needed to wait for more teams to have room to take him on, to create a bigger market, and obviously, it worked out perfectly in that case, netting a return that surprised many.

Like with Tanev, or pending Canadiens UFA forward Sean Monahan now, there was an inherent risk of Chiarot getting hurt at the worst time. That’s true for any player potentially on the trade market, but what you love about Tanev as a player is also what most concerns you: He’s an absolute warrior who will put any part of his body in front of a puck to block a shot and whose physical, demanding style takes a toll.

It’s also what has made him such a likable and desirable player. You look at how a big, physical Vegas Golden Knights blue line put up a fort in front of their net last spring en route to the Stanley Cup, and Tanev fits right into that type of mold, all the more why the Leafs or another playoff contender would desperately want him.

I also get why the Leafs might be reluctant to spend another first. Their 2025 first-round pick is already gone from the Jake McCabe deal with Chicago. They also don’t have second-round picks in the next three drafts. Previous Leafs GM Kyle Dubas spent a lot of draft capital going for it, which is what Cup-contending teams do.

But it’s left the Treliving in a bit of a pickle. Tanev is a great fit, but at a cost. The longer it plays out closer to March 8, the more teams will be in the bidding. It’s fascinating theater, to be sure.

[GioforPM]

The “injury prone Tanev” stuff is all from his Vancouver days. He has been pretty healthy in Calgary. A couple weeks off last season, but that’s it.

Lebrun mentions his $4.5 cap hit but the Flames would certainly retain.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Vladar and Tanev (50%) for Toronto's 1st and whatever defenseman they need to dump on us to make room for Tanev.

Or, take on Samsonov and flip him to another team and let the Leafs roll with Vladar and Woll.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

Vladar and Tanev (50%) for Toronto's 1st and whatever defenseman they need to dump on us to make room for Tanev.

Or, take on Samsonov and flip him to another team and let the Leafs roll with Vladar and Woll.

Screw that...tanev at 50%retained is worth Torontos 1st. No need to throw Dan away he can fetch a 4th or 5th rounder if we want to move him

[Monahammer]

I wonder if you could get Minten and a 1st for Tanev (50%) + Vladar. That would be awesome.
Then Hanifin for a 1st + and we are in dreamy territory. Whatever we could get for Lindy at that point would be gravy.

[Toonage]

^ Kipper & Bourne had a discussion about a return for Tanev too. They landed on a 3rd and Minten for Tanev with no retention on Calgary's part. Cited Klingberg's LTIR as reasoning for no retention.

[Monahammer]

[Bonded]

Those all look to good to be true

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The “injury prone Tanev” stuff is all from his Vancouver days. He has been pretty healthy in Calgary. A couple weeks off last season, but that’s it.

Lebrun mentions his $4.5 cap hit but the Flames would certainly retain.

You keep saying that, but it's not quite true. It's like saying Monahan wasn't injury prone when he was playing through injuries.

Tanev played through several broken ribs and a torn pectoral muscle. The injury occured on Mar 29th, 2020. As a result Tanev was playing injured for 19/56 games(34% of the season). Source

Tanev dislocated his shoulder and torn his labrum in game 6 against DAL in the 2022 playoffs. He either missed or was playing injured in 6/12 games (50% of the playoffs). Had this injury occured in the regular season he would've been out for 4—6 months.

Tanev reinjured his shoulder and missed 17/82 games(21% of the season) last year.

Tanev is injured again this year and had several close calls as well.

That's at least 1 injury each season.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I wonder if you could get Minten and a 1st for Tanev (50%) + Vladar. That would be awesome.
Then Hanifin for a 1st + and we are in dreamy territory. Whatever we could get for Lindy at that point would be gravy.

My guess from the Leaf's perspective Tanev (50%) has more value to them than Tanev (50%) plus Vladar.

They don't need Vladar, and won't want to be saddled with his cap hit when Woll comes back, nor especially next year.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I wanted to add to the top 5 pick discussion, so here's the draft pick summary from 2004-2019.

You can argue that I miscategorized a couple of players, but this is just to give the general idea of the types of players we can get with each top 5 pick and the probability for each tier.

1. 1st overall:
   • Franchise Players (56%): Ovechkin(04), Crosby(05), P. Kane(07), Stamkos(08), MacKinnon(13), McDavid(15), Matthews(16), Dahlin(18), Hughes(19)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Tavares(09), Hall(10), Ekblad(14), Hischier(17)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (13%): E. Johnson(06), RNH(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (0%):
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Yakupov(12)
2. 2nd overall:
   • Franchise Players (31%): Malkin(04), Doughty(08), Hedman(09), Barkov(13), Eichel(15)
   • Top pair/First line (25%): Seguin(10), Landeskog(11), S. Reinhart(14), Svechnikov(18)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (19%): J. Staal(06), JVR(07), Laine(16)
   • 3rd line/5th D (19%): B. Ryan(05), R. Murray(12), Kaapo(19)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): N. Patrick(17)
3. 3rd overall:
   • Franchise Players (19%): J. Toews(06), Draisaitl(14), Heiskanen(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): Duchene(09), Huberdeau(11)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): J. Johnson(05), Bogosian(08), Strome(15), PLD(16), Kotkaniemi(18), Dach(19)
   • 3rd line/5th D (25%): Turris(07), Gudbranson(10), Galchenyuk(12), Drouin(13)
   • Bust/Depth (6%): Barker(04)
4. 4th overall:
   • Franchise Players (25%): Backstrom(06), Pietrangelo(08), Marner(15) Makar(17)
   • Top pair/First line (13%): B. Tkachuk(18), Byram(19)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (38%): Ladd(04), E. Kane(09), R. Johansen (10), Larsson(11), S. Jones(13), Bennett(14)
   • 3rd line/5th D (6%): Hickey(07)
   • Bust/Depth (19%): Pouliot(05), G. Reinhart(12), Puljujarvi(16)
   
   
5. 5th overall:
   • Franchise Players (13%): Price(05), Pettersson(17)
   • Top pair/First line (40%): Wheeler(04), Kessel(06), B. Schenn(09), M. Rielly(12), E. Lindholm(13), Hanifin(15)
   • Second pair/Top 6 (20%): Alzner(07), Niederreiter(10), R. Strome(11)
   • 3rd line/5th D (13%): L. Schenn(08), Hayton(18)
   • Bust/Depth (13%): Dal Colle(14), Juolevi(16)
   • Not enough NHL games so far to even speculate: Turcotte(19)

Feel free to move players around between the categories if you think I got some of them wrong, but that's a good starting point. For example both Marner and Backstrom could be considered 1st liners, Hanifin a 2nd pairing D etc.

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If you look at 6th overall, there is a huge drop off in the odds of getting a star

Franchise Player: Tkachuk (16), Seider (19) 12.5%
Top Pair/1st Line: Zibanejad (11), H Lindholm (12), Monahan (13) 18.75%
2nd Pair/Top 6: Brassard (06), Gagner (07), OEL (09), Zacha (15) 25%
3rd Line/5th D: Glass (17) 6.25%
Bust/Depth: Montoya (04), Brule (05), Filatov (08), Connolly (10), Virtanen (14), Zadina (18) 37.5%

The odds of a bust goes up dramatically when you drop out of the top 5 of the draft. IMO if you're not committing to getting a top 5 pick you better draft well or you're just wasting a season for nothing. If we don't commit to the top 5, we need to draft well and hopefully add some good picks and prospects.

These are two high quality posts. Thanks!


I am really interested to see that in the top three there is a 94% chance you get an NHL player. This is what the Flames need to aim for.