[Game Takes] Avalanche 6 Flames 5

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Exactly (the whole post), but I'll focus on the Makar shot as an example.

As you say, the Makar shot, being a one timer from the top of the slot, probably has a 10-15% chance of scoring. But he made a perfect shot, which is going to beat any goalie. None the less, xGA says that the goalie failed by .8% (or whatever the actual percentage was).

In the aggregate (i.e. over many games) these things should balance out, but in a single game, they do not - JUST LIKE SAVE PERCENTAGE.

When a puck is tipped, it probably has a 5% chance of going in (or whatever the number is), but a perfect tip leaves the goalie with no chance. If there are a couple perfect tips or lucky bounces in a game, the goalie is going to be under water, vs their xGA. In the exact same way that they will be under water vs shot attempts on some nights.

People put way too much value in these stats.

Once again last night someone commented on save percentage. In the second period.

[442scotty]

Just finished watching the last two periods. I thought the effort was there throughout by everyone. I thought Vladar played great. Worst passing team in the league lol. I can’t believe there’s another team worse for giving away the puck. I think Huberdeau tries too hard at times and his linemates need to do a better job at getting open. I guess it’s the lack of skill that causes the repeated giveaways and poor passing? The Avalanche won the cup two years ago and they are loaded with Grade A talent. What do people expect?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Exactly (the whole post), but I'll focus on the Makar shot as an example.

As you say, the Makar shot, being a one timer from the top of the slot, probably has a 10-15% chance of scoring. But he made a perfect shot, which is going to beat any goalie. None the less, xGA says that the goalie failed by .8% (or whatever the actual percentage was).

In the aggregate (i.e. over many games) these things should balance out, but in a single game, they do not - JUST LIKE SAVE PERCENTAGE.

When a puck is tipped, it probably has a 5% chance of going in (or whatever the number is), but a perfect tip leaves the goalie with no chance. If there are a couple perfect tips or lucky bounces in a game, the goalie is going to be under water, vs their xGA. In the exact same way that they will be under water vs shot attempts on some nights.

People put way too much value in these stats.

And exactly why I said he looked good despite not having the numbers, and that it seems to be a thing for all three goaltenders this year.

Don't think there was a bad goal on Vladar last night, was there?

But he gave up 6.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

And exactly why I said he looked good despite not having the numbers, and that it seems to be a thing for all three goaltenders this year.

Don't think there was a bad goal on Vladar last night, was there?

But he gave up 6.

Flames were leaky last night for sure.

The only real fault would be his rebound control on the 5-5 goal left something to be desired for sure but still wasn't soft.

Makar, Tatar, Myers all beat him pretty clean, and maybe he could have made a big save on one of those, but none of them were soft and Flames gave them shots off of clean passes right into the slot.

The Mackinnon goal was no chance, and same with the 5-4 goal with was just unlucky.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Flames were leaky last night for sure.

The only real fault would be his rebound control on the 5-5 goal left something to be desired for sure but still wasn't soft.

Makar, Tatar, Myers all beat him pretty clean, and maybe he could have made a big save on one of those, but none of them were soft and Flames gave them shots off of clean passes right into the slot.

The Mackinnon goal was no chance, and same with the 5-4 goal with was just unlucky.

I think someone else said it ... goalies need to make saves on tough shots.

Dan Vladar has the 6th worst high danger save percentage for goaltenders with 300 or more minutes.

Markstrom the 6th best.

Wolf (small sample size is the 2nd worst for goalies with 175 or more minutes).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think someone else said it ... goalies need to make saves on tough shots.

Dan Vladar has the 6th worst high danger save percentage for goaltenders with 300 or more minutes.

Markstrom the 6th best.

Wolf (small sample size is the 2nd worst for goalies with 175 or more minutes).

Which is just crazy, because I can't think of a single goal that's been bad, or even 'need the goalie to make a save' caliber.

IMO, that's another example of the stats just not aligning with what we're watching.

Let's face it: the Flames are cursed, and the goalies will never be anything more than sacrificial lambs at the slaughter that is Calgary's perpetual and miserable existance.

[Bingo]

Wolf is victimized by all those tip goals.

I think five have gotten past him by great tips or off his own teammates.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Wolf is victimized by all those tip goals.

I think five have gotten past him by great tips or off his own teammates.

Yes, exactly. No chance on any of them. Twice he has been pushed into his net by a team-mate - in 3 games!

But the stats say he's performing terribly