2023/24 Blue Jays Off Season Thread

[Jiggy]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol

Ohtani is a top of the rotation "ace" pitcher and a 5+ fWAR DH....when he's healthy.

The only question is how healthy will he be for the duration of the contract.

The guy put up 9 fWAR last season and only pitched half the year.

Plus he's a marketing dream come true.

He's worth most of that contract, no doubt in my mind. Rogers thought so too, because they apparently had an entirely different "unicorn" budget for the jays if they had landed him.

There is also the attraction factor, and the truth is bringing even more talent to the jays would have been much easier with him in the fold.

Invaluable IMO

Look how quickly Jays fans have turned on Vladdy. If the Jays signed Shohei and he turned into a pure DH making 70 million a season people would quickly turn on him too. And then they would blame him for the $50 beer rogers would be selling since they singed him. Plus, he's a different cat, he talks to the media whenever he feels like (which is not very often), and wants special treatment from any team he is on.

He's an amazing player. But not a 70 million dollar player because of his injury history.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Passan broke it down pretty well, but the deferrals essentially are an accounting trick to bring down the annual cap value. So while $700 million is the true value of the contract, because of the deferrals the actual cap value is going to be much lower. And the marketing aspect truly makes this impossible to fully evaluate for maybe 15-20 years after the contract is done. If this creates 10 million lifetime Dodger fans in Japan, then the contract is arguably a discount.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1733617544471216149

[Sylvanfan]

I'll still contest the appeal of Ohtani was to sell all these expensive Field Level Suites at Rogers Center. The Jay's could get the next 4 best free agents for the same total money, likely have a better team, but it won't sell these suites on a Tuesday in April.

[flambers]

It will be interesting to see what is the Plan "B".

Jays are still not good enough, they need to find a couple hitters.,

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by flambers

It will be interesting to see what is the Plan "B".

Jays are still not good enough, they need to find a couple hitters.,

I think Soto was plan B, but he went off the board before plan A was resolved and now they need to move onto plan C.

I think Bellinger will be plan C, and that's kind of frightening to be honest.

[Roof-Daddy]

I also think they are trying to land Yamamoto but good luck outbidding Cohen on that one.

The only good thing about Cohen being in on Yama is hopefully he won't end up a Yankee. Better a Met than a Yankee.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Passan broke it down pretty well, but the deferrals essentially are an accounting trick to bring down the annual cap value. So while $700 million is the true value of the contract, because of the deferrals the actual cap value is going to be much lower. And the marketing aspect truly makes this impossible to fully evaluate for maybe 15-20 years after the contract is done. If this creates 10 million lifetime Dodger fans in Japan, then the contract is arguably a discount.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1733617544471216149

I'm curious to see what the actual cap hit is. That 8.5% is not the correct number, the discount rate is, and that is more like 5%. To get it to a 40-50 cbt hit, then that would be some crazy deferrals, like not getting anything for 10 years, or getting half the money now and have in 20 years. If the deferrals are really that crazy, then it is misleading to even call it a 700 million dollar contract as 70 million 20 years from now is really only worth 25 million now. The team could essentially invest 25 million for each of his playing years, and pay him out 70 million a year starting in 2043, and I would say it it is really a 250 million dollar contract. It's not cap circumvention at all, but rather exaggerating the value of the contract.

I doubt the deferrals would be that extreme though. The most reasonably heavily deferred contract I could see is to pay him 35m/year for 20 years, and in that case the cap hit would be more like 56m/year.

Also, how do the Dodgers monetize 10 million Japanese fans? That would mostly benefit the league more than the team.

[bluejays]

All very interesting theories. Wasn't Hideo Nomo the first Japanese phenom on the pitching side, and an LA player nonetheless? I know he's not the same ilk as Ohtani but as a kid I remember the early hype and after a few seasons, the die down. How did he influence their sales? Or Suzuki? I'm sure consulting companies will put numbers to it. As for immediately putting seasons in suites on a Tuesday at Rogers Centre, I think that's a tall ask even with Ohtani. Baseball traditionally hasn't been the go-to from a corporate perspective, in a long long long time. Even if he were here, no doubt it would be a boost in the casual fan, but on the corporate side I don't think it would be a huge boost.

[Roof-Daddy]

Jays will have to be wary now hunting for FA's

The agents just watched them almost outbid the Dodgers for Ohtani to the tune of $600 million + and so will probably be attaching a premium to their clients asking price thinking the Jays are not only looking to spend, but are also now potentially desperate.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'll still contest the appeal of Ohtani was to sell all these expensive Field Level Suites at Rogers Center. The Jay's could get the next 4 best free agents for the same total money, likely have a better team, but it won't sell these suites on a Tuesday in April.

Yeah. I'm not in the budget category for a suite but if they signed Ohtani I probably would have flown to Toronto this summer and bought infield tickets for a couple of games.

They sign Rhys Hoskins, Bellinger, and Chapman (which is probably getting close to the same money) I won't bother.

[flambers]

My guess the next step for the Jays is a trade,

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by flambers

My guess the next step for the Jays is a trade,

Hopefully with the Reds for a 3B

They need pitching and have a glut of infielders with more on the way.

They have Marte starting at 3B and because of that they project to play Steer in LF. He played 46 games at 3B last season, and quite a bit in the minors too.

Would be great to get him for the Jays open 3B spot.

[Jiggy_12]

I have a feeling the Jays are probably going to try to swing for the fences with a big trade, they are probably feeling a little desperate after what took place

[browna]

I honestly don't think this changes anything with the Jays as far as what Atkins and Shapiro thought going into offseason.

I think Ohtani was on the list for sure as a target, like a dozen teams, and the Jays did make an aggressive push, however, it didn't kick into high gear until he reciprocated interest in the last 2 weeks or so.

So Ohtani was a legitimate bonus/surprise that it got as far as it did, it was a once in a long time bonus shot for a very talented player that they could woo and acquire with cash and lifestyle, one that was willing to entertain the idea of playing for Canada.

Did they miss on Soto in the meantime? Back to reality, no. Would thet have given up what the Yanks did for an unsigned Soto? Doubtful.

As much as I'm tepid on Atkins (Shipro seems to be a good president, able to communicate with Rogers and their money), he better not be desperate because they missed out on a long shot. Just because the fans expectations are high because of the interest Ohtani had and the media whipped fans up into expectations, it would be far too reactionary to be desperate and make a big move just because.

If they fully expected from the day they lost to the Twins that they were signing a top player, and that fell through now, that's different...here it's missing out on someone no one expected them to get at all, so the offseason plans were not contingent on getting Ohtani, or they better not have been.

Nothing will be close to equalling the hype and excitement around Ohtani but the Jays have to get the right mix of players to both make the playoffs and win a 3 game series, at very least. However unsexily that happens with signings or trades in December and January, it has to happen, and will never compare to spending half a billion dollars on one player.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah. I'm not in the budget category for a suite but if they signed Ohtani I probably would have flown to Toronto this summer and bought infield tickets for a couple of games.

Yeah, I was thinking about it too. I would have went to Toronto for a playoff game or two had they beat the Twins but of course they choked.

Now I'll probably have the same plan this season unless I move to Toronto or go there for something else.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Why? They just gave him a Pujols contract. Is he even the second best hitter on the Dodgers?

There's no universe where he's worth twice as much as Mike Trout.

I’ve watched 100+ of his games for the past 6 years. I watched him develop into the best player in the game on my favourite team. I also watched that team piss away a golden opportunity.

I’m fully in agreement that from a playing standpoint he isn’t worth that contract, but it still sucks losing the luxury of watching him play every day because the team failed to build around him properly.

I’d say I’m justified in my anger.

[Kasi]

Seems likely that the rumors on Friday were leaked by Ohtani’s camp. We had trusted insiders being reported by Morosi and that dodgers guy that the Jays were going to get him. But then in that day the dodgers came up with another 100 million for this. So I think Ohtani always wanted the dodgers and just used the Jays as leverage. Sure if the dodgers hadn’t caved then maybe we would get him. But I think it’s clear his preference was LA.

Edit: that guy on the plane we were all tracking is represented by the same agency as Ohtani.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Seems likely that the rumors on Friday were leaked by Ohtani’s camp. We had trusted insiders being reported by Morosi and that dodgers guy that the Jays were going to get him. But then in that day the dodgers came up with another 100 million for this. So I think Ohtani always wanted the dodgers and just used the Jays as leverage. Sure if the dodgers hadn’t caved then maybe we would get him. But I think it’s clear his preference was LA.

Edit: that guy on the plane we were all tracking is represented by the same agency as Ohtani.

Talk about a crazy coincidence.


I've been reading this morning about the apparent last minute push by LA on Friday through the on-purpose leak. Now we know why they wanted extreme silence as that was likely always their plan (to squeeze out the most). I don't blame any person for seeking out the most in their financial earnings, but what I don't get is the fake news that he's not all about the money. The proof is in the pudding that he wanted the money bigtime and leveraged the Jays to get it. He handcuffed the Jays management team so I have no problem booing him. I like his athletic ability, but as a fan who got used, meh, he'll get a small amount of boos from me. I'd do that with anyone who did that to one of my teams, talented or not.

[868904]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Jays will have to be wary now hunting for FA's

The agents just watched them almost outbid the Dodgers for Ohtani to the tune of $600 million + and so will probably be attaching a premium to their clients asking price thinking the Jays are not only looking to spend, but are also now potentially desperate.

Shades of Treliving's Huberdeau contract.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Kasi

Yeah if the price is that high that’s fine with me. Toronto was likely just leveraged to push the price up. Always the bridesmaid I suppose. Still crazy numbers.

So...I've never really come into this thread before because I'm not a Baseball fan by any stretch of the imagination. I am however, fascinated with the Economics of Professional Sports. And in that arena, this is an event!

Thing is...this is probably not even the craziest sports contract of 2023.

I'd give that honour to Leo Messi signing in MLS. That contract is WILD.

I'd even consider giving 'Runner Up' to Cristiano Ronaldo, but I cant do that in good conscience because he signed that contract with what essentially amounts to the Saudi Arabian Sovereign Wealth Fund and we'll probably never know what the real amounts are.

We can only presume that since the Saudi Sovereign Wealth fund has more money than God that it was probably rather lucrative, but as I said, we'll probably never know.

I mean, they signed a ton of players to their joke of a league for a crap-ton of money to try and get the World Cup and then all of a sudden Australia dropped out of the bidding at the last second (inexplicably?) and lo and behold the Saudis were awarded the World Cup! No way!

Then theres Ohtani. I cant really speak to this contract other than it seems like one of the highest in North American sport (other than Messi) but I'm not fluent enough in the economics of Baseball to say much more than that other than....$70M/year for 1 player?

Are Baseball contracts Guaranteed like NHL contracts?