[Game Takes] Canucks 4 Flames 3

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I went to Moneypuck too.

The Canucks had an expected goals of 3.664 late in the game, and then it went to 3.992 on the goal event.

So it looks like the empty net goal added 0.32 expected goals.

If the Canucks had an xg of 3.99 and Markstrom had an XGA of 3.09 then there was .9 xg while Markstrom was pulled. Not sure what they use to get that .9 of a goal, but it was pretty close.

[Spurs]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think Oesterle is an AHL guy.
Gilbert a 7.

DeSimone the jury is out on ... he looked like a 6 for a good stretch this season. Not making the case he's a 4 or 5 but a 6.

I agree with the first two for sure, I think they are being asked to do a little more than they should but they are fine for the roles you listed.

I have not been impressed with DeSimone at all, I think he is an AHL guy as well, but others seem to see something with him that I am missing.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Spurs

I agree with the first two for sure, I think they are being asked to do a little more than they should but they are fine for the roles you listed.

I have not been impressed with DeSimone at all, I think he is an AHL guy as well, but others seem to see something with him that I am missing.

He's at almost 100 minutes with Zadorov as a partner and an expected goals number of 57%.

That's doing the NHL job in a third pairing.

Of his 8 games, he had solid underlying numbers in 6 of them.

It's not a sample size to conclude he's a NHL third pairing defenseman but I think it's enough to give him a longer look; especially ahead of say Oesterle and Gilbert.

[Spurs]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He's at almost 100 minutes with Zadorov as a partner and an expected goals number of 57%.

That's doing the NHL job in a third pairing.

Of his 8 games, he had solid underlying numbers in 6 of them.

It's not a sample size to conclude he's a NHL third pairing defenseman but I think it's enough to give him a longer look; especially ahead of say Oesterle and Gilbert.

I don't look at the fancy stats like you so maybe there are more positives that I am not seeing, from watching him I don't see much different from the other two but more than willing to give him that chance over them if the stats suggest he has more to offer.

I don't expect much from Solovyov either but at least with him there is the hope at his age he might be able to grow into the role.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Spurs

I don't look at the fancy stats like you so maybe there are more positives that I am not seeing, from watching him I don't see much different from the other two but more than willing to give him that chance over them if the stats suggest he has more to offer.

I don't expect much from Solovyov either but at least with him there is the hope at his age he might be able to grow into the role.

I think the team thinks Solovyov is ready to exceed all three.

We will see.

He was very much that in his first game, and then had some circumstantial stuff go against him in the Edmonton out door game.

Need to see more.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

For the record ...

Markstrom has 17 starts.

He's allowed the first goal 11 times.
He's given up a goal in the first three minutes 4 times.
One of those games Calgary had already scored.

Not sure why we would base it on the first 3 minutes, but for these stats:

11 vs an expected of 8.5
4 vs an expected of 2.5
(irrelevant that Calgary had scored in one of them)

If it were just the 17 game sample size, this would be meaningless. But it is a continuation of what we saw last year

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think the team thinks Solovyov is ready to exceed all three.

We will see.

He was very much that in his first game, and then had some circumstantial stuff go against him in the Edmonton out door game.

Need to see more.

I think Solovyov offers the most hope / promise, simply because he is still developing and progressing.

But this is going to take patience.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Bingo

For the record ...

Markstrom has 17 starts.

He's allowed the first goal 11 times.
He's given up a goal in the first three minutes 4 times.
One of those games Calgary had already scored.

For the record, Markstrom has 16 starts.

Source

Allowing the first goal 69% of the time isn't great. But if you eliminate the first three games of the season, where the Flames were on a first goal scoring stretch, Markstrom has allowed the first goal in 11 of his last 13 games (85%). Which is more consistent with what we saw last season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Not sure why we would base it on the first 3 minutes, but for these stats:

11 vs an expected of 8.5
4 vs an expected of 2.5
(irrelevant that Calgary had scored in one of them)

If it were just the 17 game sample size, this would be meaningless. But it is a continuation of what we saw last year

I think Cannon said first 3 minutes.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by cannon7

For the record, Markstrom has 16 starts.

Source

Allowing the first goal 69% of the time isn't great. But if you eliminate the first three games of the season, where the Flames were on a first goal scoring stretch, Markstrom has allowed the first goal in 11 of his last 13 games (85%). Which is more consistent with what we saw last season.

But that isn't a goalie stat.

I mean we'd have to dig into each first goal of the game and determine how much was on him and how much was on his teammates.

The Flames started last night's game in their own zone for two minutes straight for example.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think Cannon said first 3 minutes.

I was going off the fact that Markstrom allowed a goal in the first three minutes in four of his past five games. Which is brutal.

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But that isn't a goalie stat.

I mean we'd have to dig into each first goal of the game and determine how much was on him and how much was on his teammates.

The Flames started last night's game in their own zone for two minutes straight for example.

Your goalie giving up the first goal 85% of the time is a goalie stat. Unless you think the Flames have performed that badly to start games?

The Flames haven't always spent the first few minutes in their own zone.How many times have we seen the Flames start strong and have the first shot against go in the net? With Markstrom, way more than I would like.

Markstrom might lead the league in first shot goals against over the past two seasons.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Not always the case but most of the time the first early goal is Markstrom's weakest for the night.

Sometimes it is but saying most of the time is kind of pushing it. There's also a bias that some people have who automatically label an early goal as bad whether it is or not just because it's early.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Your goalie giving up the first goal 85% of the time is a goalie stat. Unless you think the Flames have performed that badly to start games?

The Flames haven't always spent the first few minutes in their own zone.How many times have we seen the Flames start strong and have the first shot against go in the net? With Markstrom, way more than I would like.

Markstrom might lead the league in first shot goals against over the past two seasons.

I'm saying you'd have to look into it to know either way.

Otherwise you're just walking out a bias aren't you?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Your goalie giving up the first goal 85% of the time is a goalie stat. Unless you think the Flames have performed that badly to start games?

Dan Vladar has allowed the first goal in four of his five starts this season, with one of those happening in the first 3 minutes (@Toronto). Maybe it is a team issue?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Okay, let's look a the total sample size:

Markstrom: 6-8-2, .438
Vladdar.....: 4-2-1, .643

Markstrom played really well last night, except for the first shot. If he saves that, it is a different hockey game. That game was winnable.

That’s not the total sample size. That’s this year. Plus the score is 6 wins to 4 wins.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Dan Vladar has allowed the first goal in four of his five starts this season, with one of those happening in the first 3 minutes (@Toronto). Maybe it is a team issue?

Actually, he's started 7.

And statistically, hit should have given up one goal in the first 2.85 minutes, which is exactly what he has done

[cannon7]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm saying you'd have to look into it to know either way.

Otherwise you're just walking out a bias aren't you?

By "looking into it" you mean making a subjective judgment on every first goal against? Wouldn't that introduce bias either way?

Lets put it this way: excluding 0-0 games that go to a shootout there is always a first goal for one side or the other. So all things being equal, the odds should be 50/50 that your goalie gives up the first goal. Now for a team like the Sharks, where goals and wins are hard to come by, one would reasonably expect a higher than average rate of first goals against. Alternatively a top team like the Bruins or Golden Knights, where goals and wins have been easier to come by, should have comparatively a lower than average first goal against rate. Given this, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect a team flirting around .500 to have a first goal against rate somewhere in the middle?

We've all seen the statistic of how important the first goal is to winning a game. The fact that the Flames have as many wins as they do despite their goaltending giving up first goals at a considerably higher rate than average should be (arguably) a credit to the team in front of them. Imagine if we were just average in terms of first goals against?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That’s not the total sample size. That’s this year.

Total sample size for the year. And in the next post, I included last year, which is their total sample size.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Total sample size for the year. And in the next post, I included last year, which is their total sample size.

Your stats say the team won more often with Markstrom in net. We can do anything with these stats.