2023-2024 1/4 mark assessment

[bigrangy]

The season is somehow 1/4 of the way done even though it feels like it's just getting started. The team sits just outside of a wild card spot, amongst a group of teams that just seemingly won't buckle down and take a spot. A -12 goal differential through 21 games is indicating a team that just isn't particularly good, although their past 10 games have been a lot better than their first 11.

Continuing along the same lines of analysis as this post from last year, I was curious to see what the #s would be like for this season. To summarize:

%SGA=% stoppable goals against (what percent of goals against are stoppable by the Flames goalies)
USGA/gp=Unstoppable goals against/game played (how many unstoppable goals are the Flames D giving up)
USGF/gp=Unstoppable goals for/game played (how many unstoppable goals for are the Flames O generating)
P(PG)/gp= Extra Points (Perfect Goalie)/game played (how many extra points achieved per game played if Flames goalies were hypothetically perfect)

year--------------%SGA----USGA/gp----USGF/gp---EP(PG)/gp
2021-2022-------29.1------1.7----------2.29--------0.3
2022-2023-------34.1------1.89---------2.12--------0.46
2023-2024-------43--------1.81---------1.71--------0.57


Through 21 games, a full 43% (over 4 in 10!) goals against Flames netminders this year have been stoppable goals that they should have been able to save. League average is typically around 28-30%.

The defense has been allowing a normal-ish level of unstoppable chances against, a little better than last year, not as good as 2021/22.

The offense has fallen off a cliff. There's no way to isolate this stat to 5v5 vs PP, but I'd bet this has a lot to do with a power play that just isn't working. The Flames have not been able to generate a lot of open tap ins.

This last stat EP(PG)/gp is kind of galaxy brain math, but it shows that the goalies have been giving away points at a higher rate than even last year so far this season. I have not done the league wide analysis to know if 0.57 EP(PG)/gp is good/bad/awful but it is definitely worse than it was for the Flames the last couple years.

Somewhat interestingly, opposing netminders have been unusually leaky against the Flames this year, having surrendered 36% of their goals against as stoppable. It could be that bad opposing goalies have been making this team look a bit better offensively than it might actually be.

Feel free to ask me about this analysis. It is subject to the bias of having essentially one guy assign every goal as stoppable and unstoppable of course but if we can assume that they are fair, then I think the analysis can be treated as sound.

Judging by this, I think the Flames are a good bet to miss the playoffs and fall down in the conference unless something changes with the goalies and the offense picks it up. At the end of the day, a positive goal differential is pretty much what you need to make the playoffs, the Flames are negative on this in real life and if they were living in a world where all the goalies were perfect. Opposing goalies will start saving goals at better rates and even if the Flames goalies turn it around, the offense is still not scoring enough.

I'm hoping for continued progression from the younger players and for the impending UFAs to show some value but any meaningful hockey in March and April i think is just going to be a bonus. The past 10 games have been really solid and I think the Flames have deserved to have won most of them. Maybe they've turned a corner, maybe not.

[Enoch Root]

Somewhat interestingly, opposing netminders have been unusually leaky against the Flames this year, having surrendered 36% of their goals against as stoppable. It could be that bad opposing goalies have been making this team look a bit better offensively than it might actually be.

I think the opposite is true - I don't think opposing goalies have been leaky, I think the Flames have been generating better quality chances than they did last year.

[butterfly]

What is the source of the data?

It doesn't seem great to define shots in the binary of "stoppable" or not. There are varying degrees of likelihood that any shot might go in. Just as we've seen some very foolish shots go in, we have also seen some unbelievable saves.

The EP(PG)/gp doesn't seem fair as it seems to make the Flame goaltenders stop all the "stoppable" shots but doesn't do the same for the other team's goaltenders. Correct me if I'm misunderstanding.

[bigrangy]

Originally Posted by butterfly

What is the source of the data?

It doesn't seem great to define shots in the binary of "stoppable" or not. There are varying degrees of likelihood that any shot might go in. Just as we've seen some very foolish shots go in, we have also seen some unbelievable saves.

The EP(PG)/gp doesn't seem fair as it seems to make the Flame goaltenders stop all the "stoppable" shots but doesn't do the same for the other team's goaltenders. Correct me if I'm misunderstanding.

The source is the Stoppable Goals Thread managed by poster Bleedred on the HFDevils forum, the link is inside the original post. Stoppable goals are definitely a spectrum but I think they even out over time. Is 21 games enough time? I don’t know.

You’re not wrong on the EP(PG)/gp being essentially arbitrary in saying that the Flames goalies are perfect. What I’m trying to use it to show is to compare Flames goalies year over year with the baseline of a perfect goalie to compare every year to. I’m not trying to say the Flames goalies have been objectively good or bad, just how they are relatively to their past selves.

[dissentowner]

The interesting thing to me is the Flames are still in it despite a very tough schedule to start the year with double the road games to home. Looking ahead of they can hover near the WC heading into the last couple of months they could really finish strong. That being said they still need to sell on the UFA's imo.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

The source is the Stoppable Goals Thread managed by poster Bleedred on the HFDevils forum, the link is inside the original post. Stoppable goals are definitely a spectrum but I think they even out over time. Is 21 games enough time? I don’t know.

You’re not wrong on the EP(PG)/gp being essentially arbitrary in saying that the Flames goalies are perfect. What I’m trying to use it to show is to compare Flames goalies year over year with the baseline of a perfect goalie to compare every year to. I’m not trying to say the Flames goalies have been objectively good or bad, just how they are relatively to their past selves.

Yeah, we spend a lot of time thinking about and discussing what leads to goal prevention and goal creation. The data just isn't publicly available in a format that lends itself to analysis.

With respect to goal prevention, there are three things that I can think of to optimize it:

(a.) Shot volume suppression
(b.) Shot quality minimization
(c.) Goaltending skill

Improving any of these will intuitively also improve goal prevention. A is easily quantifiable, but B and C are much more difficult to evaluate given what little data we have. Also, A in isolation is somewhat meaningless without knowing the context that would come with knowing B.

I think that's why the discussions typically devolve into eye test arguments. Which is sad, but we crave the ability to attribute outcomes to some knowable set of events.

[codynw]

Team is about what I expected. Maybe slightly worse than I expected. Bubble team / first round exit at best.

Play the kids, sell the UFAs and restock the prospect cupboard this summer. All I want to see.

[Goriders]

I think most of the players are filling their roles. Many that had poor seasons last year are back on track.

Markstrom, Mangiapane being the big turnarounds. Coleman is also having a good year.

Many new promising young players that are fitting in well. Zary, Posipisal, Gilbert, Ruzicka

I think or defence has improved from last season. Anderson is a difference maker. Weegar has been solid too.

Duehr seems to have lost momentum. Wondering if it’s time for him to go back down. Dube seems to have taken a step backwards.

The flames problem in my mind is they don’t have a top line. I think it’s mainly because they are paying $10.5 million to Huberdeau and he’s playing like a $5 million dollar player. They essentially have two second lines and a third and fourth line. The silver lining to this is they could probably trade anyone. So gives you a lot of flexibility.

One or two consistent goal scorers with have such an impact on their lineup. I guess any team could say that. But I think the Flames sorely lack that kind of player.

They have improved as a team quite a bit in the last 10 games or so. But the hole they dug for themselves at the start of the season was quite substantial. Hopefully they keep improving.

[Enoch Root]

I think the Flames have 2 major problems right now:

1) the PP
2) turnovers in their own end, and at both bluelines