The Stretch Before Jan 1

[EVERLAST]

Huska needs to over simplify things so these guys DONT get stuck in thier own heads and then suffer the consequences.

I hope they can play thier game and not worry about the opponent so damn much

I watched a video of how the bruins are playing this year with the loss of Krecji and Bergi

https://youtu.be/5egeXrC6niM?si=7R6HmsvgVIZFtAMU

Good way to think about structure , and Huska Savard needs to copy this mentality and somehow get our forwards to play this way .

I think we have good personnel I really really do

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Have you guys seen the wildcard teams in the west? I don't think they need 96 points

They are basically in a dead heat now...they need to be better than those teams the rest of the way

2nd wildcard team is one game over .500

Actually, the 2nd wildcard team is .500

In baseball terms, the Flames are half a game behind in the wildcard race. Half a game.

[dino7c]

.500 is 82 points lol

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

As a Canucks hater I would love to say that...but when you are 13-5-1 and have the 3 leading scorers in the NHL it's tough to call it an easier game.

Nah, they suck still. Paper tigers.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

.500 is 82 points lol

Probably normalizes a bit...similar to last year.

Last year .536 was the 8th seed in the West at US Thanksgiving, ended the season being .579.

Based on that, and history, the lowest you generally expect for the playoff cut off is about .550 record which is 90 points.

So IMO that's probably more the target of what the Flames would need to make the Playoffs, 90-92 points.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Have you guys seen the wildcard teams in the west? I don't think they need 96 points

They are basically in a dead heat now...they need to be better than those teams the rest of the way

2nd wildcard team is one game over .500

You said the exact same thing last year around this time and the Jets finished 8th with 95 points.

96 is in most years but it's almost always somewhere between 93-96 to get in. 2nd half of the year typically has more 3-point game and more in conference games. Pace will go up

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Probably normalizes a bit...similar to last year.

Last year .536 was the 8th seed in the West at US Thanksgiving, ended the season being .579.

Based on that, and history, the lowest you generally expect for the playoff cut off is about .550 record which is 90 points.

So IMO that's probably more the target of what the Flames would need to make the Playoffs, 90-92 points.

90-92 is possible, but most year you are not getting in. It makes way more sense to project at least 93 but really you should use 94-96.

[Mathgod]

eh nvm

[Flamesfan05]

The NHL regular season is 82 games, anybody can beat anyone.
The Aves are playing like #### right now

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

You said the exact same thing last year around this time and the Jets finished 8th with 95 points.

96 is in most years but it's almost always somewhere between 93-96 to get in. 2nd half of the year typically has more 3-point game and more in conference games. Pace will go up

No I didn't...I said it wouldn't take 100 and it didn't

I don't actually think it will be 82 but do the math on what the Seattle and Arizona's would need to do to get 96 points.

It ain't happening

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Big time ...

But .500 won't do it. They're a game under now, and if they go a game over through that ugly stretch they'll be .500 after 27 games and have to go something like 28-14-3 the rest of the way to get to 96 points.

That's a 108 point pace over their final 45 games.

I think they'll need to be something like 4 games over .500 before New Year's Day so they can play at a 100 point pace the rest of the way to make it.

96 is a great target number because teams who get to that don't miss the playoffs. But it doesn't mean a team with 89 won't make it this year.

I'm not really convinced that the likes of St.Louis, Anaheim or Arizona are going to raise the bar that high. Granted getting in with 90 points and being bounced in 5 games is not going to get fans overly excited.

[dino7c]

Totally, but someone has to keep the Oilers out of the playoffs

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Totally, but someone has to keep the Oilers out of the playoffs

When you put it that way...getting in with 83 while they're at 82 would very much be worth it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

.500 is 82 points lol

More often than not two teams figure it out and the pile separates.

I learned long ago to not focus on the current pace, but the expected finish.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Bingo

More often than not two teams figure it out and the pile separates.

Or more than two, and you get a race to the finish, which is always fun.

However, the whole pile has had such a bad start this year, it will probably affect their finish. I have a hunch that the 9th-place team in the West will end up with no more than 90 points.

[Bingo]

9th place team perhaps.

8th place team 92-96 would be my guess.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Bingo

9th place team perhaps.

8th place team 92-96 would be my guess.

The point being that all you have to do to make the playoffs is beat the 9th-place team by one point.

[Bingo]

Fair ...

But if you're aiming for 91 (not saying you are) you probable become the 9th place team, not pass them.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

9th place team perhaps.

8th place team 92-96 would be my guess.

90 points is not unprecedented. The 18-19 Avs had 90 points in 8th (9th was 86 points). 15-16 Wild only had 87 points.

And lots of teams in the West really got off to poor starts, so it likely will be lower than usual this year, especially since lots of these teams remaining schedule will be heavy with games against one another.

What it will take for these teams to get to 92 points:

Blues - .559: 73 points in 65 games - .561
Ducks - .500 : 74 points in 64 games - .578
Coyotes - .500: 74 points in 64 games - .578
Kraken - .475: 73 points in 62 games - .589
Flames - .472: 75 points in 64 games - .586
Predators - .412: 78 points in 65 games - .600
Wild - .412: 78 points in 65 games - .600
Oilers - .324: 81 points in 65 games - .623

So two of these teams all have to play better than their current pace, and at the pace listed to get to 92 points and have that be the playoff floor. Really does feel like the top 6 in the West might be close to set already though with 6 teams above a .647 already right now.

It could happen but I'd be quite surprised if the threshold is above 92 this year.

[Enoch Root]

lots of teams off to slow starts, but that tends to reverse over the second 20, and normalize overall.