[Rumour] Francis: All contract talks on hold for Flames

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Detroit was also terrible for a long time, they should have more good young players...80 points is their best season over the past 7

say what you want about the Flames they have been a 93-111 point team

The Wings were in denial about needing a rebuild until their core aged out with the retirement of Zetterberg and Kronwall. They didn’t actually start rebuilding until 2019, when they brought Yzerman in. At that point, they had been out of the playoffs for three seasons.

Teams that back into rebuilds kicking and screaming typically take longer. Which is a lesson for teams like the Flames - don’t wait until you’re out the playoffs three years in a row to start trading veterans and stocking up on picks.

The Wings were also totally screwed by the draft lottery multiple times. Which happens. But it’s still unlucky.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Worth stating. A planned rebuild is not guaranteed success. So many here think it's a magical bullet that will lead to multiple cups. Tanking is not a guarantee for success.

Look at Edmonton. Even with two MVPs on their team, they've never won the conference, and have only made Rd 3 once. And that's with McDavid and Draisaitl. They also had a bunch of failed years with Gagner/ Hall/ Nuge/ Yakupov. The Flames, through all of their 'mediocrity', have won the West, and division, and have been as competitive the last 10 years without tanking. If it weren't for Tkachuk/Gaudreau leaving for their own reasons, they would still be a top team in the West today.

Look at Buffalo. Playoff drought of 12 years. Sam Reinhart, Dahlin, Eichel, Cozens, and they have nothing to show for it.

Arizona has been tanking for years, and still doesn't look like they're going anywhere.

Toronto has already soured on Matthews/Marner, saying they can't cut it in the playoffs.

There are more busts in the top 10 of drafts than franchise chanaging hits.
-Tanking isn't a magical cure.
-Retooling without burning things to the ground can work and keep your team competitive.

After 33 years of constant win-now mode and almost zero results, maybe fans are ready for a different approach. You can't blame them for feeling this way.

It's easy to cherrypick rebuilds that have failed, but there are just as many examples of rebuilds that have resulted in hoisting the Stanley Cup (in many cases multiple times).

The Oilers are the absolute epitome of bungling and incompetence. They drafted two of the best players of an entire generation and still have not been able to win a damn thing. So I don't think this example makes your point, as that organization is the lowest of low bars that anyone should be able to clear.

Bottom line, a rebuild properly done is more likely than not to result in a legit contending team emerging from the ashes.

[Vinny01]

Let’s not pretend this team didn’t rebuild post Iginla. They sold off and picked high for 3 years. They had some pieces from the previous regime and hit a home run on Gaudreau but this was a team that rebuilt. Their core was Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Bennett, Brodie, Gio, Backlund all were home grown players.

When Tree made the trade with the Hurricanes he at one time had:

5th and 6th overall from 2013 age 23
4th overall from 2014 age 22
5th overall from 2015 age 21
6th overall from 2016 age 20

5 top 6 picks under the age of 25 when they first won the division. That is a rebuilding effort.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

After 33 years of constant win-now mode and almost zero results, maybe fans are ready for a different approach. You can't blame them for feeling this way.

It's easy to cherrypick rebuilds that have failed, but there are just as many examples of rebuilds that have resulted in hoisting the Stanley Cup (in many cases multiple times).

The Oilers are the absolute epitome of bungling and incompetence. They drafted two of the best players of an entire generation and still have not been able to win a damn thing. So I don't think this example makes your point, as that organization is the lowest of low bars that anyone should be able to clear.

Bottom line, a rebuild properly done is more likely than not to result in a legit contending team emerging from the ashes.

Isn’t this just a different version of cherry picking rebuilds?

How is it more likely, and how do we define “properly”?

Are there rebuilds that were done properly that didn’t result in a Stanley Cup? There must be.

Are there rebuilds that weren’t done properly where they won a Stanley Cup despite that? Must be.

We trot out these “truths” about rebuilds that I’m not sure are all that true. Maybe the only truth is that it’s a method almost every team in the salary cap era is forced to pursue and it’s success is as varied as team success in general.

[Vinny01]

Once you start paying your young stars out of ELC the rebuild clock is ticking to end. I think that it is important to max out the term of your key players or do a non-Tkachuk style bridge. The Flames window was essentially the Gaudreau one extension. Even if they could have kept him it would have been a $2.7 raise for his declining years.

It is one thing I think Ottawa has done really well locking their core up and they have their key drafted pieces signed for 5-8 years.

If you burn 2-3 years of your best young players extension you shouldn’t still be in tank mode.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Let’s not pretend this team didn’t rebuild post Iginla. They sold off and picked high for 3 years. They had some pieces from the previous regime and hit a home run on Gaudreau but this was a team that rebuilt. Their core was Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Bennett, Brodie, Gio, Backlund all were home grown players.

When Tree made the trade with the Hurricanes he at one time had:

5th and 6th overall from 2013 age 23
4th overall from 2014 age 22
5th overall from 2015 age 21
6th overall from 2016 age 20

5 top 6 picks under the age of 25 when they first won the division. That is a rebuilding effort.

If you look at all the picks the Flames never truly committed to rebuilding:

Originally Posted by Itse

To be accurate:

Between 2014 and 2020, if you sum up all draft picks, the Flames have made
Two less 1st round picks
Two less 3rd round pick (we have an extra for 2021)
One extra 4th round pick.
Two less 5th round picks


For additional context, I will add 2013 to the numbers, because that's when Iggy was traded and "the rebuild" was started.

This is the total number of picks made in comparison to expected, per round, during all of the Flames "rebuild":
One less 2nd round pick
Two less 3rd round picks
Two less 5th round picks
One extra 7th round pick.

Basically there was never a rebuild, at least not through the draft. We only made 11 picks combined in 2014 and 2015. Treliving was fast-tracking the rebuild from the moment he got here, and this is pretty much why we're now sitting at the bottom of the standings


If you compare to for example the LA Kings, during their 2003-2009 rebuild, they had

4 extra 1st round picks
1 extra 2nd round pick
2 extra 3rd round picks
2 extra 5th round picks
2 extra 7th round pick

That's a pretty big difference.

Basically, the flames got dragged kicking and screaming into a rebuild, never committed to building through the draft, and looked for shortcuts as soon as possible (Hamilton, Brouwer, Frolik, etc.).

Wonder how this next go around will go.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Jore

If you look at all the picks the Flames never truly committed to rebuilding:



Basically, the flames got dragged kicking and screaming into a rebuild, never committed to building through the draft, and looked for shortcuts as soon as possible (Hamilton, Brouwer, Frolik, etc.).

Wonder how this next go around will go.

They were dragged into a rebuild. So you admit they rebuilt?

Not a chance in hell this fanbase would have wanted to go the Chevy route of making no trades and signings to add talent around their strong drafted core. Getting Dougie when he was 22 is not a bad move when they already had many key pieces in place.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Don’t look now but Dylan Larkin just became 2 years younger and is 27 years old.

But yes, they have Larkin under contract until he is 34.

They have Copp under contract until he is 32 (another 3 years after this)

They have Perron under contract until the end of this year.

And they have Petry on a two year deal at 2.34 million and they have Chiarot and Holl until they are 35 with 3 yrs left each.

The Flames have Huberdeau locked down for another 7 years until he is 37

They have Kadri locked down for another 5 years until he is 38

They have Backlund locked down for another 2 years until he is 37

They have Coleman locked down for another 3 years until he is 35

They have Weegar locked down 7 years until he is 37.

They have Markstrom locked down for another 2 years until he is 36.

One team has significantly more term and money tied into guys in their 30’s than the other.

The Red Wings after this season have about 19.1 million in guys who will be in their 30’s next year.

The Flames have about 39.2 million in guys who will be in their 30’s next year.

The new arena is going to need Wheelchair Accessibility Ramps for the Player's Entrance.

[camm13]

double post

[camm13]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Let’s not pretend this team didn’t rebuild post Iginla. They sold off and picked high for 3 years. They had some pieces from the previous regime and hit a home run on Gaudreau but this was a team that rebuilt. Their core was Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Bennett, Brodie, Gio, Backlund all were home grown players.

To me that period was a forced re-tool, not a rebuild. Once they made the playoffs in 2014 and beat Vancouver, they started to make transactions like they were only a few pieces away from being a contender. The only significant pieces that were traded was Glencross, Russell, Hudler (soon to be UFAs), lossed Cammeleri for nothing

I'll just list notable transactions ( not includ re signing players from entry lvl contracts, or RFAS)



2014: Re signed Brodie 5 years for $23M, Colborne for 2 years for $2.55
Signed Jonas Hiller for 2 years for $9M, Mason Raymond for 3 years $9.5M (bought out in final year), traded a 3rd for Bollig

2015: Re signed Gio to 6 years $40.5M, Bouma 3 years $6.6 (also to be bought out later), traded a 1st and 2nds for Hamilton, Hamilton signed to 6 years $34.5M, Backlund re signed to 3 years, Frolik UFA 5 year $21.5M

2016: Signed Brouwer 4 years $18M (again bought out later), traded for Elliot for a 2nd, traded for Lazar for a 2nd at deadline and Stone for a 3rd and 5th

2017: re sign stone 3 years $10,5M (bought out, then re signed), acquire Hamonic for 1st and 2nds

2018: Re sign backlund 6 years $31.1M, trade Hamilton (re sign Lindholm, Hanifin), then the infamous James neal signing 5 years $28.75M only to trade him 1 year later for Lucic

[Table 5]

The Flames have rebuilt before, but it was usually pretty half-assed. They need to use their full ass.

And yeah, a rebuild may not work out, but how would that be any worse than what we have today? At least there may be a modicum of hope there at some point.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The Wings were in denial about needing a rebuild until their core aged out with the retirement of Zetterberg and Kronwall. They didn’t actually start rebuilding until 2019, when they brought Yzerman in. At that point, they had been out of the playoffs for three seasons.

Teams that back into rebuilds kicking and screaming typically take longer. Which is a lesson for teams like the Flames - don’t wait until you’re out the playoffs three years in a row to start trading veterans and stocking up on picks.

The Wings were also totally screwed by the draft lottery multiple times. Which happens. But it’s still unlucky.

The Flames haven’t done anything in the playoffs for 20 years. If they do this magical rebuild you can add another 7-9 years on top of it.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The Flames have rebuilt before, but it was usually pretty half-assed. They need to use their full ass.

And yeah, a rebuild may not work out, but how would that be any worse than what we have today? At least there may be a modicum of hope there at some point.

Look at San Jose for a case study

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Worth stating. A planned rebuild is not guaranteed success. So many here think it's a magical bullet that will lead to multiple cups. Tanking is not a guarantee for success.

No one in the history of CP has ever once said rebuilding guarantees success.
There's literally no point in stating this and then giving a rebuttal to something no human has ever said.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

No one in the history of CP has ever once said rebuilding guarantees success.

Huh.

I'm not certain that statement is true. Now, "no one sensible" may have said that, but I'm doubting just the generic no one (looking at you, Moon?).

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Table 5

The Flames have rebuilt before, but it was usually pretty half-assed. They need to use their full ass.

And yeah, a rebuild may not work out, but how would that be any worse than what we have today? At least there may be a modicum of hope there at some point.

Look here sir...I'll thank you for this, because I both fully agree and got a chuckle out of it.

Unfortunately, what Treliving has done to this team has been some sort of 'Ass-Ectomy' where a significant portion of the posterior has been removed.

Compared to this team, Hank Hill has a full and luscious ass, and we all know that simply isnt true.

[Saqe]

Getting high picks ins't enough, you need to get elite talent with those high picks. If you get 1OA and you pick Saflovsky or RNH type, those aren't going to move the needle. You probably need 2-3 different elite level picks. And even that's not enough if your management is ####. Case in point, Edmonton.

[Burning Beard]

I'm on team rebuild but man the Flames have no luck. It isn't going to be easy, fun or fast. We all know this deep down I hope.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Let’s not pretend this team didn’t rebuild post Iginla. They sold off and picked high for 3 years. They had some pieces from the previous regime and hit a home run on Gaudreau but this was a team that rebuilt. Their core was Monahan, Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Bennett, Brodie, Gio, Backlund all were home grown players.

When Tree made the trade with the Hurricanes he at one time had:

5th and 6th overall from 2013 age 23
4th overall from 2014 age 22
5th overall from 2015 age 21
6th overall from 2016 age 20

5 top 6 picks under the age of 25 when they first won the division. That is a rebuilding effort.

This is not rebuilding.

The Flames sold 1 expiring UFA and 1 player under contract in 2013, and drafted 6th overall. That’s a good first step.

The Flames then held the line, and did not do anything that following Summer. Burke then fired that GM that held the line. Flames then largely did nothing under Burke - acquiring only one additional 2nd round pick (Hank Karlsson trade, that’s a W).

Burke then hired Treliving prior to the 2014 draft, and the Flames then drafted Sam Bennett 4th overall.

Beginning in his first Summer, Treliving began spending like a drunken sailor in free agency and the rebuild was over. Flames made the playoffs the following season.

Our “rebuild” lasted for 1 season. From when we traded Jarome in 2013, to when we drafted Bennett in 2014. That was it.

That was not nearly long enough. 1 year and a 6th and 4th overall? Yeah, that’s not the foundation for a Championship team. It was the bare minimum, and if everything had gone perfectly right then perhaps it could have worked…but when does anything ever go perfectly right? They just left themselves no margin for error. Had they taken a more patient approach? You know, not made the Hamilton trade, not made the Hamonic trade, and not made the Elliott trade things could have gone very differently. There was no patience though.

Sure, we never would have got Lindholm or Hanifin - but we could have drafted Barzal and Kyrou (we also could have drafted duds - but that’s the point of employing and trusting a good scouting staff).

Build through the draft with quality picks and a quantity of picks.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Are there rebuilds that were done properly that didn’t result in a Stanley Cup? There must be.

Are there rebuilds that weren’t done properly where they won a Stanley Cup despite that? Must be.

Yes, in cases of very good luck or very bad luck, you could see some scenarios play out as you described. But as far as I can tell, such scenarios are the exception and not the rule.

How is it more likely, and how do we define “properly”?

If a rebuilding team eventually achieves its end goal and can directly attribute that success to its rebuild, then it has rebuilt properly. Examples include:

Chicago (Kane, Toews)
Pittsburgh (Crosby, Malkin, Letang)
LA (Brown, Kopitar, Doughty)
Washington (Ovechkin, Backstrom)
St. Louis (Pietrangelo, Thompson (traded for O'Reilly), Tarasenko)
Tampa (Stamkos, Hedman, Vasilevskiy, Kucherov)
Colorado (MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog)

Vegas is a unique situation as they had a contending team right out of the box by taking advantage of a generous expansion system, and GMs who didn't know how to handle the situation.

On the flipside, those who did not end up winning a cup, or at least make many deep runs in the playoffs, have (ignoring cases of extreme bad luck) failed to properly execute a rebuild.

At least, that's the way I look at it.

We trot out these “truths” about rebuilds that I’m not sure are all that true. Maybe the only truth is that it’s a method almost every team in the salary cap era is forced to pursue and it’s success is as varied as team success in general.

If the outcomes of rebuilds are as random as you say, and have little or nothing to do with management efficacy, then I guess it would make sense that teams would try to avoid doing it for as long as they can delay the inevitable.

But as far as I can see, teams that draft truly elite talent (the bumbling fools up north notwithstanding) generally do go on to win a cup or at least make deep runs in the playoffs with regularity.

I think the real reason teams try to avoid going into rebuilds is that it hurts the bottom line in the immediate years. Owners who consider turning an immediate profit to be a higher priority than winning a Stanley Cup as soon as possible, will obviously choose to squeak into the playoffs as often as possible and avoid rebuilding, even if it means their team never becomes a legit cup contender.

But admittedly, there are other factors that come into play as well, such as do the players you draft want to make a dash for the door as soon as they become UFAs? If that's the case, what power do you have to make yourself a destination where players want to stay for the long haul? How do you make yourself a destination where you don't have to overpay to get players to sign long term? In Calgary's case, I don't know if there's an answer beyond getting a new building, and even that won't entirely fix the problem. Our cold climate, weaker dollar, and fishbowl environment are issues here and in every Canadian market...