[PGT] Flames lose Heritage Classic - Oilers 5 Flames 2

[Wastedyouth]

I was at the game.

Lazy. Uninspired hockey.

Not fun at all. What a waste of time.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by dino7c

He was literally bragging about saying the Flames previous core wouldn't win a championship and being "right"

3 years on

I pointed out he also said that core wouldn't make the playoffs or beat Dallas. I mean its not much of a way to be a fan.

I could say the Flames won't win a cup in the next 20 years and I would probably be right...seems like an odd way to be a fan of a team though IMO.

People talk #### about my positivity every day, like I care...I feel bad for people that let a kids game ruin their lives. If the Flames suck all year then I look forward to the new draft picks. If they have a miraculous turn around that would be fun. Whatever...I have real actual issues in my live, being constantly negative about a kids game seems silly to me.

Shame away, I've heard worse

The odds of the flames winning at least one cup in the next 20-years is pretty close to 50/50.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The odds of the flames winning at least one cup in the next 20-years is pretty close to 50/50.

Lots of assumptions needed to get there. It's not as simple as 1-((31/32)^20).

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The odds of the flames winning at least one cup in the next 20-years is pretty close to 50/50.

lol we wish

32 teams but this market is at an obvious disadvantage...there is some positivity for you guys

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by MillerTime GFG

dino7c…relax lol.

Flames winning the cup this year is more likely than that.

[GullFoss]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Lots of assumptions needed to get there. It's not as simple as 1-((31/32)^20).

Sure...the biggest reasonable assumption adjustment is clustering which negatively impacts the odds.

But the rest of the factors are largely subjective and uncertain in impact, so revert back to base odds once you account for the unknowns around variable parameters

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I was at the game.

Lazy. Uninspired hockey.

Not fun at all. What a waste of time.

Username continues to check out.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Flames winning the cup this year is more likely than that.

some irony here considering he was the one making personal attacks

the Flames losing last night wasn't even in the top 5 of bad things that happened in my life last week

if it was for you consider yourself lucky

I will debate hockey for fun, I am perfectly relaxed about it...just a game after all. Unfortunately I am not very mobile at the moment so I can't do a lot other than video games and computers so my post count might be a little alarming over the next bit lol. I appreciate the distraction though.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Flames and Panthers are both garbage.

Panthers ####ed their future in a different way - traded all their 1sts away.

At least the Flames' situation is salvageable with the right moves and direction. Huberdeau and Kadri can help them reach the floor if needed, and Kadri's buyout is palatable in a couple years.

You think the Panthers are in a worse position than the Flames?

They've traded 2 firsts, Calgary has traded 1.

Panthers are still in a viable window.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

The odds of the flames winning at least one cup in the next 20-years is pretty close to 50/50.

It's higher than the Oilers' chances if they tear down now.

Oilers will see a slow decline (that will accelerate if either of the twins leave) and cling to a window they never had (because the goaltending and team D is subpar). I think their best shot, if they ever had one, has passed already. Probably when Smith was in net.

If Conroy leans on Nonis' experience and they swing these trades right and the team finishes where its tracking to, there could be a silver lining to this cloud.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

Sure...the biggest reasonable assumption adjustment is clustering which negatively impacts the odds.

But the rest of the factors are largely subjective and uncertain in impact, so revert back to base odds once you account for the unknowns around variable parameters

Hmm, not sure if subjective is the word I'd use. I think to an extent they can be quantifiable with analysis, albeit with a great deal of an error range. I think we'd agree that adding in additional factors to a model would generally decrease that number with respect to Calgary.

Also, starting position matters which in this case is known. I'd guess you'd have more opportunities to win if you start from a peak than from a downhill crest.

And, of course, random variation tops everything!

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by dino7c

some irony here considering he was the one making personal attacks

the Flames losing last night wasn't even in the top 5 of bad things that happened in my life last week

if it was for you consider yourself lucky

I will debate hockey for fun, I am perfectly relaxed about it...just a game after all. Unfortunately I am not very mobile at the moment so I can't do a lot other than video games and computers so my post count might be a little alarming over the next bit lol. I appreciate the distraction though.

Wow, hope everything is okay, friend.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

You think the Panthers are in a worse position than the Flames?

They've traded 2 firsts, Calgary has traded 1.

Panthers are still in a viable window.

3 straight for the Panthers and the Flames had two one year, they are not without a first in any of those years

Panthers are a better team now for sure...they were a 92 point team last year though, not much of a window to be honest. Montreal was in the finals recently too.

Would you rather be a bubble team with no firsts or a terrible team is the question I guess.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Hmm, not sure if subjective is the word I'd use. I think to an extent they can be quantifiable with analysis, albeit with a great deal of an error range. I think we'd agree that adding in additional factors to a model would generally decrease that number with respect to Calgary.

Also, starting position matters which in this case is known. I'd guess you'd have more opportunities to win if you start from a peak than from a downhill crest.

And, of course, random variation tops everything!

AKA, the butterfly effect

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Wow, hope everything is okay, friend.

nothing too serious, just a long recovery

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by dino7c

3 straight for the Panthers and the Flames had an extra, they are not without a first in any of those years

Panthers are a better team now...they were a 92 point team last year though, not much of a window to be honest. Montreal was in the finals recently too.

Would you rather be a bubble team with no firsts or a terrible team is the question I guess.

Yeah.

The Flames traded their extra 1st from ...wait for it... the Panthers!

The Panthers won't have high end talent coming soon outside of what's already there with the lack of high picks and a team that finished with less points than those abysmal Flames last year.

Hope they have a Keith Tkachuk quote to rally around every year, they'll need it.

[FlamesAddiction]

The Panthers are 4-3 right now with Bennett, Montour, and Ekblad all out of the line-up. Hardly time to worry for them, unless those 3 guys are out for a really long time.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The Panthers are 4-3 right now with Bennett, Montour, and Ekblad all out of the line-up. Hardly time to worry for them, unless those 3 guys are out for a really long time.

Its not about "worry" but to me anyway they seem like a middling team that traded all their futures

I doubt they get any better and I don't think they are good enough...its an odd thing in hockey and we should know.

Being okay is often worse than being terrible long term.

They are obviously better than the Flames now but don't look like cup contenders and don't look to be improving. A dark horse run is possible but teams don't often get more than one of those.

I might be wrong about them again and Bob could stand on his head again but that is what it would take.

If the Pens beat Chicago in game 81 I bet a lot of people have a much different take on the Panthers right now.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

True. The difference is that, in hockey (unlike the other sports), there are two different markets, and one of the markets has insane fans, no privacy, and cold weather, while the other has anonymity.

Are there stupid fans everywhere? Of course. Is it a similar experience in Vancouver, vs Seattle (for example)? They're not even in the same universe.

Yes, that’s the better way to characterize it. The thing that makes the NHL different from other major pro sports isn't how rabid Canadian NHL fans are (it’s not as though NFL and NBA players in U.S. markets aren’t under a microscope); the difference is how anonymous NHL players are in American markets.

[dino7c]

our best player left and had this to say

"Playing in Canada is very different with the spotlight and the history. What I've noticed in the difference between playing in Canada and Florida is the highs and lows. So I think for them, maybe, and they're unbelievable talents, but unless they win the Stanley Cup, they're basically crucified.

But I know, seeing it from afar, nothing against Canada, but I know I wouldn't want to deal with it on any given day"

What more can be said, its a factor for sure