The Foolish Optimism Thread

[SuperMatt18]

I know after last season people will be quick to jump on the advanced stats but I actually don't think it's as bad as the record indicates TBH and still think I'll give them until game 20 before I overreact one way or another.

I think the biggest issue is that the team lacks confidence and doesn't trust their instincts (Huberdeau is the biggest culprit of this IMO). Even just tonight how many grade A chances are goals if they could just raise the puck, or don't take that extra split second to shoot.

You don't just gain confidence overnight and this team needs a bit of luck that they just haven't had at all the past two seasons. That and some some better goaltending would help, there is no way they should have left that second period down 3-1 tonight.

But since the first game against Winnipeg they have carried the play at 5v5, and it's been in a different way than last season. Fewer low quality chances, and higher Scoring chance and high danger ratios.

Over the last 6 games at 5v5%

Corsi For %: 58.9% - 1st
Corsi For per 60: 68.4 - 5th
Corsi Against per 60: 47.8 - 2nd

Scoring Chance %: 57.4% - 2nd
Scoring Chance For per 60: 29.9 - 5th
Scoring Chance Against per 60: 22.2 - 2nd

High Danger Chance %: 67.7% - 1st
High Danger For per 60: 13.99 - 1st
High Danger Against per 60: 6.67 - 2nd

XGF%: 61.67% - 1st
xGF per 60: 3.00 - 4th
xGA per 60: 1.87 - 1st

Shooting %: 5.77% - 26th
Save Percentage: .862 - 32nd

Even though it looks very similar to last year there are some main differences in how the team is playing. They are generating much higher quality of shots than last season, and allowing even fewer high danger. They need some bounces and some saves.

It's still a work in progress but there are signs of progress even if the 1-4-1 record over the last 6 games is very unfortunate.

100% the roster does lack talent...but honeslty they just need to take some risk.

- Call up Zary, Poirier, and Wolf and that's an infusion of youth and talent.

- Figure out the special teams units and stop mixing up the PP lines so much.

- And FFS have some fun, this looks like a team that needs to go out and get hammered together.

And I can't harp on this enough...call up Dustin f@&@$@$ Wolf. You have the two time AHL goalie of the year, and reigning AHL MVP on the farm team when you have the worst goaltending stats in the NHL

[TheScorpion]

I'll be optimistic if and when they make the Wolf move. Until then, not yet.

[SemicolonD]

All those advanced metrics are deja vu to last year are they not? Analytics aside these Flames definitely don't look like they're generating the most high danger chances lol.

[GullFoss]

Some well reasoned points and a reasonable analysis. A much needed thread amid all the negativity.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by SemicolonD

All those advanced metrics are deja vu to last year are they not? Analytics aside these Flames definitely don't look like they're generating the most high danger chances lol.

Similar but not the same, I think the biggest difference are the high danger metrics.

They were 15th in high danger Corsi For last season (12.44 per 60) and these last 6 games they are 1st (13.99 per 60).

So the emphasis on quality does seem to be working, and they still have strong volume too.

[Strange Brew]

Biggest reason for optimism is that by game 50 no one will really care about how the team was playing early in the season.

The points count all the same but lots of time.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Similar but not the same, I think the biggest difference are the high danger metrics.

They were 15th in high danger Corsi For last season (12.44 per 60) and these last 6 games they are 1st (13.99 per 60).

So the emphasis on quality does seem to be working, and they still have strong volume too.

It's good to see that improvement in high danger, but also remember that they traded their best goal scorer away for pennies in the Summer. So while their high danger is up this year, their ability to convert on them is down.



I'm an optimist, and I think what's happening right now is the timely (bad) medicine that the team needs.

[Sandman]

Great post, thanks.

I'm just as negative as anyone. I said before the season started that we weren't big enough, physical enough, or tough enough. I questioned the Huska hire. I've never been a fan of Markstrom. I've been vocal about my concerns with this team, but it's only the 7th game and I've seen flashes of a winning system. The players are learning a new defensive scheme, and they are trying to get their creativity back. I have some confidence that they will get there, but it's way too early for everyone to be this down on the team.

I know I'll get flamed, so flame away.

[direwolf]

Still plenty of time to right the ship. On paper this should be a playoff team. Hopefully they can get their s*** together, find some confidence & chemistry, and get rolling over these next few games.

[NewFan]

For me most important number is Goals per game, which Flames at 25th with 2.43.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by NewFan

For me most important number is Goals per game, which Flames at 25th with 2.43.

Even more important than goals per game is points % in the standings, which we are also 25th in.


Edit: Sorry, I know this is the optimism thread. I'll try not to harsh everyone's jam.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

The only optimism I can scrounge up right now is that this still looks like the worst case scenario for this group of players.

I'm not sure they can individually be much worse, with the exception of 2-3 guys.

Which means there is massive room for improvement for many of them. Almost every guy in that room has played significantly better hockey with better execution at some point in the not distant past. So there's a track record there at least.

[jayswin]

My only optimism is that Huberdeau is a "star" player that requires the right players playing with him. There's been two times this season where Huberdeau has truly connected with line-mates and the line looked deadly.

Both times it was accidental and both times it was the two players I suggested needed to play with Huberdeau for best fit - Coronato for one shift two games ago and Sharangovich tonight. Both times the first line suddenly looked dynamic and threatening the whole time they were there.

I don't understand how these two players haven't played with Huberdeau after Conroy specifically said certain players were brought in to play with him?

[dino7c]

15 other teams lost tonight

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Incredible that we still have befuddling roster decisions happening and kids being held back from the big club.

We were promised changes from the culture on down but I don't see a lot that's different this season.

Different faces, but same formula of madness.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

Incredible that we still have befuddling roster decisions happening and kids being held back from the big club.

We were promised changes from the culture on down but I don't see a lot that's different this season.

Different faces, but same formula of madness.

Wolf?

[DeluxeMoustache]

Confidence is a big issue. And to exacerbate things…

Puck luck wasn’t on their side tonight. They worked the puck around the zone for a minute, to the point where Sportsnet showed shift lengths for the Rangers. They astutely continued to wear them down then failed to capitalize when they lost the puck. Rangers change, TV time out, strategy is for naught

Also there was a point where Rangers overloaded strong side and I think it was Kadri that made a cross ice pass back to the opposite point, but it hit the boards weird and they lost the zone

It’s gotta be mentally trying. They didn’t play that badly on the whole, but were trying to play safe

People raving about Shesterkin’s save tonight also (and pining for Wolf) to me leads to a conversation about what exactly it is that goalies do

Shesterkin is awesome, and one of my faves. But the shots he faces matter.

Shesterkin made a great stretch to rob Coleman. Great lateral movement, and at the same time… the actual outcome was that the puck was simply stuffed in to his pad.

Goalies are great at covering the bottom of the net. People rave over the save when lateral movement is involved and a Flame stuffs it into a pad, however when a guy on the other team goes top corner off the iron and in, it’s one the goalie ‘needs to have’ and now we have to call up our AHL guy?

Calls for Wolf tonight? Yeah, one got through Marky, but the other team has to win the race to score. The other 2 are pretty unstoppable tips. How good teams score.

Enough on goalies

This team needs confidence, but the problem is that there is a doggone other team that is actively trying to undermine that confidence, and they have to create situations where they have time and space to capitalize, and build that confidence

They played better tonight. Maybe didn’t deserve to win, but didn’t deserve to lose as much as last game - certainly didn’t get the bounces

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Even more important than goals per game is points % in the standings, which we are also 25th in.


Edit: Sorry, I know this is the optimism thread. I'll try not to harsh everyone's jam.

[Britflamesfan]

I am sorry but 'bad puck luck' does not last 80 odd games. You pretty much make your own luck in sports.

[1qqaaz]

MoneyPuck still has the Flames at 59.4% to make the playoffs. So that's something, I guess.
The problem is they also have the Oilers at 80.4%