Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

TIL that 81% is basically identical to less than half

The wording of the article, “he survived”, as if he pulled through by the skin of his teeth.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Dogbert

This story blew up online two days ago - journalists were already publicly clarifying that Canada (and Japan) were excluded from the statement because they don’t have nuclear weapons, and therefore aren’t part of the Quint. If Poilievre is making this statement now, then he knows full well why Canada wasn’t included, and is choosing to spread misinformation willingly.

Germany and Italy both do not have nuclear weapons.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Germany and Italy both do not have nuclear weapons.

Roughneck clarified it a couple days ago that the US has Nuclear Weapons at their military bases in Italy and Germany.

Granted, since neither of countries can really do anything about it I still wonder why they were even included.

But whatever...we're not part of the Nuke Club, nothing we can do about that.

[transplant99]

Nanos Research (data paywalled), Abacus Data, and Mainstreet Research all released new figures that puts the Conservatives ahead by double-digits from coast to coast, and leading where Liberal support had held strong until recently, namely Ontario and Atlantic Canada. And if one looks closely, one could also see the needle move ever so slightly in Quebec.

Updated
@338Canada
Federal Model:

CPC: 194 (+75)
LPC: 90 (-70)
BQ: 32 (-)
NDP: 20 (-5)
GPC: 2 (-)

- October 15, 2023 -

https://www.338canada.ca/p/liberals-...all-cpc-widens

[#-3]

I think I wrote this here about a year and a half ago, but I have thought for a while the best strategy the LPC has left, is to let Trudeau eat #### for 80% of this term, let the CPC throw everything at him and not do much to fight it, then call a leadership contest in ~Nov 2024 for a leader to be nominated in ~Early Jan 2025, then to force any election some time between April and Aug 2025, really whenever the new leader starts to show some momentum in the polling from not being Trudeau.

Basically the Conservatives have built too much of their support on F Trudeau flags, and might struggle to run against anyone else, and the worst thing the Libs and do is tip their hand for the Cons to prepare to pivot.

Sometimes it looks like this is what they are doing.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by #-3

I think I wrote this here about a year and a half ago, but I have thought for a while the best strategy the LPC has left, is to let Trudeau eat #### for 80% of this term, let the CPC throw everything at him and not do much to fight it, then call a leadership contest in ~Nov 2024 for a leader to be nominated in ~Early Jan 2025, then to force any election some time between April and Aug 2025, really whenever the new leader starts to show some momentum in the polling from not being Trudeau.

Basically the Conservatives have built too much of their support on F Trudeau flags, and might struggle to run against anyone else, and the worst thing the Libs and do is tip their hand for the Cons to prepare to pivot.

Sometimes it looks like this is what they are doing.

To that end, I’m a little surprised the knives haven’t been out for Trudeau at this point. I would have to think there’s a significant segment of the party that is leaning toward this.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Slava

To that end, I’m a little surprised the knives haven’t been out for Trudeau at this point. I would have to think there’s a significant segment of the party that is leaning toward this.

The Liberals are still haunted by the bleak Dion-Ignatieff-Rae era of infighting and weak leadership. There might be some back room pressure for Trudeau to step down before the next election. But I wouldn’t expect an outright revolt.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Slava

To that end, I’m a little surprised the knives haven’t been out for Trudeau at this point. I would have to think there’s a significant segment of the party that is leaning toward this.

? That's exactly why the knives aren't out yet. They are waiting to not give the cons enough runway. This is why it's stupid to position yourself in election campaign more than 2 full calendar years away from an election.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by Slava

To that end, I’m a little surprised the knives haven’t been out for Trudeau at this point. I would have to think there’s a significant segment of the party that is leaning toward this.

Why grab a shovel yourself when someone seems to be doing a perfectly fine job of digging their own grave.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

? That's exactly why the knives aren't out yet. They are waiting to not give the cons enough runway. This is why it's stupid to position yourself in election campaign more than 2 full calendar years away from an election.

If that's the plan? which I hope it is. But I do have a lot of fear that they are dumb enough to go into the next one with Trudeau. The next campaign question will be "what's the alternative to Trudeau", and the only way to guaranteed to lose will be to have Trudeau as leader, everyone else will have a chance.

I say that as somebody, who doesn't really like Trudeau, and think the low level background constant corruption, not understanding how showing your friends favoritism is corruption, and underwhelming execution on almost everything they try to do. But I also have almost an allergic reaction to all of the F Trudeau crap, because I think it comes from a bunch of thoughtless people who have no real salient or formed complaint, they just seemed to enjoy dumping on the guy more than they care to consider what they want, and how Canada is going to get there. The kind of thought that leads to our worst people (like Poilievre) getting so close to power when we could have actually had serious opposition from the right to Trudeau, if only saying F Trudeau as loud as possible wasn't the sole qualification for the job.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Yes, 2 years is a long time. But it’s probably not long enough for this government to turn things around, certainly not if the current leader stays at the helm. The poll numbers we are seeing now are CPC majority numbers, and my expectation is the longer Trudeau sticks around the worse those numbers will get for the Liberals. Voter preference is also not super-elastic, so you don’t want to have a year go by with many voters in Atlantic Canada and Ontario still clearly preferring the CPC message to the one the liberals are selling, because by then it may be too late to move the needle.

All of which is to say these poll numbers do matter, in some way. I doubt the LPC looks at these and goes “oh well, still 2 years to an election.” My guess is they are deeply, deeply worried about how unpopular their government is, and trying to sort out how much of that is Trudeau and how much is a wider problem that doesn’t get fixed by giving him the boot.

[Firebot]

This is the first time I have seen 338Canada's numbers having Liberals in double digits in seat projection. While the CPC seems to have gone down very slightly in popularity overall it appears the voters they are getting are in key areas such as Ontario and Atlantic Canada. CPC having 83% odds of a majority as of now. Should polling results hold or continue on its current pace, it's looking to be the biggest landslide since Chretien's 1993 results. Could the CPC get 200 seats?

The NDP of course middling around with no rudder, they clearly are unhappy with the coalition deal and tasked Singh with a pharmaceutical deal or we walk mandate, but the NDP lacks conviction and really just want to stick to status quo of being a distant 3rd.

As for the Liberals, I think they will test the deal and refuse any concessions, knowing the NDP has shown zero backbone.

I expect Trudeau will hold on to power till the last minute, call an election and resign either during the election or on the day of the vote. He's far too much of a narcissist to quit while he can still enact policies he deems necessary to regulate Canadians. Next two years will be quite interesting.

[Fuzz]

A pair of Conservative MPs will try to compel a CBC executive and a journalism standards director to appear before a House of Commons committee to defend the company's language guide — which discourages the use of the words "terrorism" and "terrorists" when describing attacks and their perpetrators.

Alberta Conservative MP Rachael Thomas, the party's Canadian heritage critic, said in a statement posted to social media that the idea is to hold the Crown corporation accountable for what she calls "its biased coverage of Hamas' attack on Israel."

"They are the very best at what they do and the quality and accuracy of their journalism stands among the best in the world."

Mar said the corporation is aware that "some members of Parliament believe they have a role in determining how journalists do their work."

"It is worth remembering that the independence of CBC/Radio-Canada's journalism from the government and Parliament is protected in law, in the Broadcasting Act," Mar said.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/con...997926?cmp=rss

CPC MP's never afraid to punch themselves in the face. ####ing idiots.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/con...997926?cmp=rss


CPC MP's never afraid to punch themselves in the face. ####ing idiots.

I am sure there is no connection

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...aign-1.6973358

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I am sure there is no connection

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...aign-1.6973358

That's OK, I'm sure Alberta voters will punish her at the ballot box for being such a ####ing moron.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1714276316382683511

Great job to answer reporters questions by Poliviere. The typical reporter with an adgenda.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Are we sure that's a reporter? The first time I saw that video I just assumed it was a joke, there's no way someone running for the highest office in the country would act that arrogant and put it on the internet. Apparently I was wrong.

[chemgear]

Crackdown to help housing supply hopefully.

https://vancouversun.com/news/local-...osed-crackdown

'I just hope my investment doesn't come crashing down on me:' B.C. Airbnb owner responds to proposed crackdown

If passed, short-term rentals in B.C. can only be offered in the host’s principal residence, which includes one laneway house or basement suite on someone’s property. The new rules would impact municipalities with a population of 10,000 people or more and in smaller communities within 15 kilometres of a larger municipality.

It will effectively wipe out the business model for real estate investors and property management companies with dozens of short-term rental listings. Under the new rules, they will have to convert those units to long-term rentals or face hefty fines.

“They are operating literally as unregulated hotels and certainly we hear from the long-term residents of those … buildings their frustration around the lack of enforcement, the lack of regulation,” Alto said Monday.

Kahlon expressed little sympathy for investors who will no longer be able to rent their properties to tourists and short-term visitors.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Are we sure that's a reporter? The first time I saw that video I just assumed it was a joke, there's no way someone running for the highest office in the country would act that arrogant and put it on the internet. Apparently I was wrong.

It seems entirely fake, like PP was doing a media training exercise.

Reminds me of when Jason Kenney did interviews. The Federal politician version of “I reject the premise…” response to any question he doesn’t like or can’t answer in a way that won’t make him look like a nut and wants to squirrel his way out of. I feel sad for anybody who sees PP as anybody other than a guy trying still trying to placate his bigoted supporters.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Wormius

It seems entirely fake, like PP was doing a media training exercise.

Reminds me of when Jason Kenney did interviews. The Federal politician version of “I reject the premise…” response to any question he doesn’t like or can’t answer in a way that won’t make him look like a nut and wants to squirrel his way out of. I feel sad for anybody who sees PP as anybody other than a guy trying still trying to placate his bigoted supporters.

I don’t know it sounded like similar questioning by the media Poliviere always gets.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ter-apple.html

“ He was eating his fruit, standing outdoors, when Vancouver-based reporter Don Urquhart asserted that he was taking a page out of Republican Donald Trump's book in terms of his politics. ”

https://twitter.com/user/status/1714333773939048639