2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Saqe]

I mean the whole idea of getting an eight year deal is to create security for the player and lower the cap hit for the team. These deals almost never are worth it for players at 30 y/o and sometimes the wheels come complete off.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Depends on how he sees his value in 5.95 years I guess.

If you do a NPV at 6.5% on a 5 year 9.5M contract it's worth $39.5M.
If you do a NPV at 6.5% on a 8 year 8.0M contract it's worth $48.7M.

If he thinks he can play those additional three years he needs a 3 year $4.8M contract at that point in a big cap world to break the whole thing even in today's dollars.

If he thinks he'll only play two years he needs a 2 year $6.95M contract.

All depends on where he sees himself in 5.95 years. If he's still decently productive and good in his own end he might be smart to take the almost $60M in the first 5 years.

I’d argue you would use a much higher risk adjusted rate on a potential second contract if you are Lindholm. Suddenly the guaranteed money becomes way more valuable in comparison.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I’d argue you would use a much higher risk adjusted rate on a potential second contract if you are Lindholm. Suddenly the guaranteed money becomes way more valuable in comparison.

If the second contract is discounted at 10% instead of 6.5% ...

Needs a three year deal at $5.97M
Needs a two year deal at $8.6M

So yeah more risk for sure.

Though I don't think a 3 year $5.97M contract is out of the question given the cap could be north of $105M at that point (making that today's $4.5M contract)

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by Saqe

I mean the whole idea of getting an eight year deal is to create security for the player and lower the cap hit for the team. These deals almost never are worth it for players at 30 y/o and sometimes the wheels come complete off.

Especially if you're not getting the lower cap hit. Not only for the longer term, but a longer term for an old guy. Why is he still getting 8+ over 8 years? He's not a 9+ player for 1 year, so I'm not sure why that's even being talked about. Any mention of the word 9 should immediately be a *click*.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If the second contract is discounted at 10% instead of 6.5% ...

Needs a three year deal at $5.97M
Needs a two year deal at $8.6M

So yeah more risk for sure.

Though I don't think a 3 year $5.97M contract is out of the question given the cap could be north of $105M at that point (making that today's $4.5M contract)

It's not out of the question if he is healthy and nothing happens. Still, it's a risk. But there is also a chance that he gets nothing if something goes really wrong.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Saqe

It's not out of the question if he is healthy and nothing happens. Still, it's a risk. But there is also a chance that he gets nothing if something goes really wrong.

Of course there is that risk - for all players. But players typically bet on themselves.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Of course there is that risk - for all players. But players typically bet on themselves.

I don't think so. How often is a free agent deal decided by an extra year on the deal? Happens all the time with older players.

[NegativeSpace]

I wonder what kind of insurance coverage they would get through the NHLPA in terms of disability coverage. That would help mitigate the risk of injury at least financially.

[Bubba17]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I wonder what kind of insurance coverage they would get through the NHLPA in terms of disability coverage. That would help mitigate the risk of injury at least financially.

Zero. The PA has nothing to do with contracts and the team has to pick who they insure. They may insure big ones for the older players so they wouldn't be paying out of pocket for old guys who can't play any more.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I wonder what kind of insurance coverage they would get through the NHLPA in terms of disability coverage. That would help mitigate the risk of injury at least financially.

I wonder what the premiums are on something like that

[Enoch Root]

The 'insurance' is multi-million dollar contracts. You get paid to be a professional athlete, but the downside is that when you can't compete, you're done, whether that's from age or injuries.

No one is going to insure an athlete's future years, the premiums would be far too massive. Plus, determining what is a career-ending injury, vs what is 'age and wear'. Good luck collecting, for most players. It's just a non-starter.

[NegativeSpace]

Well, if that's the case then it seems like a missed opportunity for the union to actually protect their players from some of the eventualities of life. I read enough insurance policies to know that language can be created to differentiate between age and injuries through exclusionary clauses. It's not unusual for any type of disability style insurance to differentiate between accident and sickness insurance or pre-existing conditions for people earning less than $100k. It just surprises me that with people earning a minimum of $775K up to millions per year that there is no attempt to create insurance to fund in the event of . Would the policies have be sorted out and have arbitration so it's confidential - sure. Is this totally impossible? No.



I remember Rhett talking about leaving the NHL and not having much support with the transition from the NHLPA. So, I suppose it shouldn't surprise me that there is no insurance, but that just seems like a missed opportunity by players to support each other and mitigate their risk of injury.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Saqe

It's not out of the question if he is healthy and nothing happens. Still, it's a risk. But there is also a chance that he gets nothing if something goes really wrong.

But it's $4M in total dollars different and it comes 3 years earlier.

Either way the money is guaranteed.

[dino7c]

Francis thinks Lindholm would get over 9x7 on the open market...you never know I guess

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Francis thinks Lindholm would get over 9x7 on the open market...you never know I guess

Kadri got 7Mx7 with a $82.5M Cap.

Lindholm getting 9Mx7 with a $87.675M Cap really wouldn't surprise me.

Although I do expect it would be from one of the more needy markets (like the Flames with Kadri).

[CalgaryFan1988]

I could see him getting a 9x7 in Free Agency, I know I would rather have Lindholm at 9 million over Kadri at 7.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Francis thinks Lindholm would get over 9x7 on the open market...you never know I guess

Flames likely think that too, which is why their offer was 8x8.2m

If Lindholm wants less at 7x9m then let him go chase it.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Francis thinks Lindholm would get over 9x7 on the open market...you never know I guess

Francis is a moron.

[Pickle Juice]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Francis is a moron.

Any new news on your end?

[Toonage]

Francis also suggested Lindholm wouldn't sign because he wants to live in Florida. Great. I suppose he could in the off season but neither of those 2 teams is paying him.