2023 MLB Season Thread

[mrkajz44]

Fangraphs literally just wrote an article about this:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/layoffs-...-historically/

Dan Szymborski culled the historical database for every matchup in playoff history where one team had a layoff of four or more days while their opponent had a layoff of two or fewer days.

There have been 35 of these games in baseball history. The team with more rest has gone 24-11 in them. Dan also predicted the winner of each of these games based on the team’s seasonal record. From each team’s record, you’d expect the rested teams to go 19-16; they’ve been slightly better in aggregate, which makes sense given the pool we’re drawing from.

The article concludes there is no disadvantage to having the longer layoff, but it does stop short of saying it is an advantage. It argues that less rest days in between series and games would likely give that advantage back.

Wild Card teams are supposed to be disadvantaged by having to play more games in less time, but after tonight’s games, the Phillies and Diamondbacks will have each played four games in the last seven days. I don’t think there’s any evidence that the extra layoff is hurting the teams that receive byes, but the lower seeds are hardly facing an impossible burden from playing extra games.

I agree with that suggestion - there are way too many days off in the postseason such that pitching depth matters so much less than it does in the regular season. I understand that MLB wants more star pitchers on the mound every night so they do the extra rest, but it hardly helps determine the best team in baseball.

[activeStick]

Ah yes, Gurriel Jr..... Of course....

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Fangraphs literally just wrote an article about this:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/layoffs-...-historically/



The article concludes there is no disadvantage to having the longer layoff, but it does stop short of saying it is an advantage. It argues that less rest days in between series and games would likely give that advantage back.



I agree with that suggestion - there are way too many days off in the postseason such that pitching depth matters so much less than it does in the regular season. I understand that MLB wants more star pitchers on the mound every night so they do the extra rest, but it hardly helps determine the best team in baseball.

The disadvantage is that you have to win a round. Ask the Jays, Rays, Brewers and Marlins.

This year was an exception because all 4 wildcard series were sweeps. Last year in the division series, the home team won game 1, 3 out of 4. Game 1 is the clear pitching advantage, Verlander versus Ober, Kershaw versus Kelly....

The schedule is also weird because they don't want to play 4 games on Sunday against NFL.

[KelVarnsen]

O’s getting destroyed

[Strange Brew]

So called toughest division in baseball looks like they will go 0-7 in the playoffs.

[bluejays]

I called it. Texas is the team to beat in the AL.

[Kasi]

Heh at least our games were close. Baltimore never stood a chance.

[flamingred89]

It is nice to see those lucky ####s have reality slap them in the face. They're a good young team. But they're not going to be a 100 win club again until they spend some money on pitching.

I really do despise all the AL teams. A Houston vs Texas CS is going to be unwatchable for me. C'mon NL!

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So called toughest division in baseball looks like they will go 0-7 in the playoffs.

Truly astounding. It still is the toughest division, but it seems like teams spend all their energy getting to the playoffs and having nothing left by then. So bizarre, because I would have had one of Tampa or Baltimore in the AL final.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Truly astounding. It still is the toughest division, but it seems like teams spend all their energy getting to the playoffs and having nothing left by then. So bizarre, because I would have had one of Tampa or Baltimore in the AL final.

It just proves that the playoffs need the Yankees and Red Sox, not these pretenders

[Jiggy_12]

This stat is nuts. The odds of Bochy being involved in both is insane

https://twitter.com/user/status/1711938151269240962

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

It just proves that the playoffs need the Yankees and Red Sox, not these pretenders

While there is definitely an element of luck/randomness in a shorter playoff series vs. a 162 season, I do think some teams are built better for the playoffs. Scouting, game plans for specific pitchers etc. become more of a factor.

Talent leads to a great regular season but coaching, game planning, decision making all become more important.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Talent leads to a great regular season but coaching, game planning, decision making all become more important.

I think the opposite. Over a 162 game grind you can scheme your way to wins against other teams 3 to 5 starters who maybe stay in game an inning long with the idea of not burning out the pen today. Some plucky depth guy has an unexpected monster day in an afternoon game when the other team is more interested in going home.

Come playoffs if you don't have that Verlander or Cole to March out, or an elite clutch hitter. You can't win. The Dodgers starters are bad, they're in trouble. Baltimore doesn't really have an ace or a bona-fide silver slugger, they got crushed.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think the opposite. Over a 162 game grind you can scheme your way to wins against other teams 3 to 5 starters who maybe stay in game an inning long with the idea of not burning out the pen today. Some plucky depth guy has an unexpected monster day in an afternoon game when the other team is more interested in going home.

Come playoffs if you don't have that Verlander or Cole to March out, or an elite clutch hitter. You can't win. The Dodgers starters are bad, they're in trouble. Baltimore doesn't really have an ace or a bona-fide silver slugger, they got crushed.

On the flip side, the Rangers in GAME ONE of the ALDS threw a bullpen game.

The Rangers also had what was likely the worst bullpen in the entire MLB.

Signed,

The forums only Rangers fan, who sure as Hell isn't holding his breath.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Didn't the Braves do this last year? Pitch to Harper in a tight spot and then watch him hit a massive HR?

[Drake]

Amateur hour by Brian Snitker. A ####ing five year old could do a better job managing.

[cheevers]

The pitching staff was always going to be the biggest question mark for the Braves. Losing Morton so late in the season was such a dagger. The offense has not been good enough so far but they just need to chip away here.

[Drake]

Here comes Brad Hand down 6-1 instead of a 1-1 game to face Harper like it should have been earlier you ####ing idiot.

[hwy19man]

The Braves-Phillies games is on Sportsnet 360. The Astros-Twins game will start at 1707h and will be on Sportsnet +.

The game will be joined in progress on SN360 when the Braves-Phillies game is over. The same thing will happen with the Diamondbacks-Dodgers game which starts at 1907h on SN+.

RDS2 in french will have the Arizona-Los Angeles game from the beginning.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Maritime Q-Scout

On the flip side, the Rangers in GAME ONE of the ALDS threw a bullpen game.

The Rangers also had what was likely the worst bullpen in the entire MLB.

Signed,

The forums only Rangers fan, who sure as Hell isn't holding his breath.

Yeah but the Rangers have spent huge to add Seager and Semien. Plus they have Scherzer and DeGroome on staff.

This isn't some bargain based analytics darling slaying Goliath. They have a good dangerous offence that I think set a record for number of times scoring 10 or more runs in a game. With no Gerrit Cole or Verlander to go against them, they easily mowed down Baltimore.

Phillies are similar but with more star power and their top piching guns are healthy.