I really don't think there's a lot of teams out there that would be willing to give Lindholm an 8 x $8.5 million deal. He's certainly not going to get that money from a team that's close to winning the cup as it would be the bottom tier teams with cap space and even some of them would likely be weary of giving him that term. This happens to other teams as well and you get the feeling the Flames are bidding against themselves here. If he's really looking for between $8.5-9.3 million then I really think the best course of action would be to trade him at the deadline and move on. Maybe even circle back in free agency once he starts seeing offers from other teams and see what his market value really is. I think it would end up as one of those moves where they dodge a bullet.
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Lindholm in Calgary has been a 0.88 player. Do we seem him continue on that path and is that worth 9 million plus for the next 8 years?
He has shown he can't carry his own line, but he can be a very good complimentary piece on a line. That's the issue I think its hard to figure out.
He has value to us for sure as he fills a hole, but at 9 plus for 8 more years that's a tough one.
I think the biggest question is what sort of player will be paid $9M in 2-3 years.
Here are players that are currently paid in the $8.5-9M range:
Skinner
Makar
Hamilton
Kaprizov
Meier
Pietrangelo
Crosby
Laine
Larkin
Zibanejad
PLD
Foresberg
Horvat
Draisaitl
Stamkos
Sergachev
Does Lindholm belong in this group? He would definitely be on the lower end in terms of how he impacts games. When was the last time you remember Lindholm actually taking over a game? I have a hard time recalling him being a difference maker last year: Either on the PP, 3 on 3, or when we were trailing in the 3rd and needed a goal.
I think the biggest question is what sort of player will be paid $9M in 2-3 years.
Here are players that are currently paid in the $8.5-9M range:
Skinner
Makar
Hamilton
Kaprizov
Meier
Pietrangelo
Crosby
Laine
Larkin
Zibanejad
PLD
Foresberg
Horvat
Draisaitl
Stamkos
Sergachev
Does Lindholm belong in this group? He would definitely be on the lower end in terms of how he impacts games. When was the last time you remember Lindholm actually taking over a game? I have a hard time recalling him being a difference maker last year: Either on the PP, 3 on 3, or when we were trailing in the 3rd and needed a goal.
I would Lindholm for any of those guys not named Skinner and even he had 82 points last year
I'm starting to lean towards the not signing him camp. Particularly if the team already made a fairly generous offer and he balked at at. See what kind of season he has and trade him at the deadline or sooner if a can't miss offer comes up. That 8-9+ million in cap space has a lot of value as well.
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I really don't think there's a lot of teams out there that would be willing to give Lindholm an 8 x $8.5 million deal. He's certainly not going to get that money from a team that's close to winning the cup as it would be the bottom tier teams with cap space and even some of them would likely be weary of giving him that term. This happens to other teams as well and you get the feeling the Flames are bidding against themselves here. If he's really looking for between $8.5-9.3 million then I really think the best course of action would be to trade him at the deadline and move on. Maybe even circle back in free agency once he starts seeing offers from other teams and see what his market value really is. I think it would end up as one of those moves where they dodge a bullet.
While I agree with the gist of your argument, one team that’s in win now mode that could afford Lindholm is the Hurricanes. They’re getting frustrated with not much to show for being a top team for several years now, and they’ll have the cap space next season. They also reportedly made a pitch for Lindholm last season at the deadline. So we know they like him.
If Lindholm doesn’t re-sign here, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up in Carolina.
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While I agree with the gist of your argument, one team that’s in win now mode that could afford Lindholm is the Hurricanes. They’re getting frustrated with not much to show for being a top team for several years now, and they’ll have the cap space next season. They also reportedly made a pitch for Lindholm last season at the deadline. So we know they like him.
If Lindholm doesn’t re-sign here, it wouldn’t surprise me if he ends up in Carolina.
Would be pretty funny if he ended up back there after they traded him to us.
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Are any of these even recent contracts...kind of important for market value
Scheifele just signed an 8.5
and with Lindholm you can't just compare points as he is a center and better defensively than most of the list
I mostly agree with you. However I did start questioning Lindholm defensively a bit. Is he better than Backlund? Does he or Backlund get the toughest defensive match up? How good was the Lindholm line in defending against the Oilers in the playoffs? That year in 12GP Lindholm had 4G, 9P, and a -7.
It wasn't just that year either. Here are Lindhlom's career stats in the playoffs: 27GP, 8G, 9A, 17P, -11. Was Lindholm a difference maker(defensively or offensively) against Dallas in the COVID season? Against Colorado in 2018-19?
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I mostly agree with you. However I did start questioning Lindholm defensively a bit. Is he better than Backlund? Does he or Backlund get the toughest defensive match up? How good was the Lindholm line in defending against the Oilers in the playoffs? That year in 12GP Lindholm had 4G, 9P, and a -7.
It wasn't just that year either. Here are Lindhlom's career stats in the playoffs: 27GP, 8G, 9A, 17P, -11. Was Lindholm a difference maker(defensively or offensively) against Dallas in the COVID season? Against Colorado in 2018-19?
A deeper dive and article I posted yesterday I believe Lindholm was in the 55th percentile and Backlund was 95th in defensive metrics.
I think we have overrated his defensive impacts, some of that might be because he played with linemates who blew the zone.
Its a big deal. We need to be sure with him.
Being iffy makes it a hard no unless the numbers come down or term.
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I'd be comfortable giving Lindholm $9M on a 3-4 year deal. On an 8 year deal I honestly don't think the Flames should offer any higher than $7.5M/year. He's a mediocre 1C. Good player, want to have him, but is absolutely not worth a massive deal with a $9+M AAV. We're already stuck with Huberdeau and Naz's deals, we don't need a third boat anchor.
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I have been thinking throughout the offseason what would be the ideal trade where they flip2 pending UFA’s for a stud RFA her player. I am thinking the value here is in favor of Calgary likely significantly and due to the divisional rival thing it wouldn’t happen but here goes anyway:
To Canucks: Lindholm+Hanifin+Dube
To Flames: Pettersson+Garland
Reasoning. In order for any of this to make sense you have to buy into the rumor that Pettersson is not sold on a long term extension in Vancouver. The Canucks refusal to rebuild puts them in a spot to add a replacement center, Dman and winger. The Canucks would likely need to be willing to meet the $9.3M ask from Lindholmsnd I assume like the Flames-Panthers deal they would push hard to sign or flip Hanifin. I think they get an upgrade going from Garland to Dube who comes cheaper with more flexibility. They do not need to retain any salary the total cap difference is $200k.
The Flames get their reverse Tkachuk deal and add an in prime talent who they pay for an 8 year deal likely in the $11-12M AAV range. Long term fit with Huberdeau could be special and it helps the Flames stay competitive potentially long term. Garland could likely find a home playing on Backlund or Kadri’s wing and brings a right hand shot.
Ultimately the Canucks would never trade their 24 year old top line C for pending free agents from their biggest rival. It does seem like Pettersson could pull a Tkachuk/Dubois if the Canucks do poorly again.
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I have been thinking throughout the offseason what would be the ideal trade where they flip2 pending UFA’s for a stud RFA her player. I am thinking the value here is in favor of Calgary likely significantly and due to the divisional rival thing it wouldn’t happen but here goes anyway:
To Canucks: Lindholm+Hanifin+Dube
To Flames: Pettersson+Garland
Reasoning. In order for any of this to make sense you have to buy into the rumor that Pettersson is not sold on a long term extension in Vancouver. The Canucks refusal to rebuild puts them in a spot to add a replacement center, Dman and winger. The Canucks would likely need to be willing to meet the $9.3M ask from Lindholmsnd I assume like the Flames-Panthers deal they would push hard to sign or flip Hanifin. I think they get an upgrade going from Garland to Dube who comes cheaper with more flexibility. They do not need to retain any salary the total cap difference is $200k.
The Flames get their reverse Tkachuk deal and add an in prime talent who they pay for an 8 year deal likely in the $11-12M AAV range. Long term fit with Huberdeau could be special and it helps the Flames stay competitive potentially long term. Garland could likely find a home playing on Backlund or Kadri’s wing and brings a right hand shot.
Ultimately the Canucks would never trade their 24 year old top line C for pending free agents from their biggest rival. It does seem like Pettersson could pull a Tkachuk/Dubois if the Canucks do poorly again.
The Canucks won't do that trade. Trading Petterson would mean a rebuild for them. In that case they would be looking to get prospects/picks. Getting Lindholm/Hanifin/Dube and resigning them would ensure a mediocre bubble team for 5+ years.
If you trade all those players for futures, then you might use them to get a guy like Petterson.
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Frank Seravalli walked back his prediction that there is a good chance Lindholm re-signs before the season. He now says there’s not much hope. So, it seems Seravalli has joined Team Friedman and Sec214.
This was on FlamesTalk today.
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Frank also says the risk is on Lindholm’s side. I agree. I think the Flames have made a very fair offer, and Lindholm risks a lot by not accepting that offer.
Which means either he doesn't want to be here or has an inflated view of his own worth. It is hard to see a way forward unless he comes out on fire and the flames cave.
Frank Seravalli walked back his prediction that there is a good chance Lindholm re-signs before the season. He now says there’s not much hope. So, it seems Seravalli has joined Team Friedman and Sec214.
This was on FlamesTalk today.
I am also joining the club. My info was the Flames final offer was 9Mx8yrs and I really thought Lindholm would take it, I was absolutely wrong. I am not sure if it is the structure, the bonuses, or he thinks he can get more but I always believed this number would get it done. As I said before something strikes me in the way he doesn't seem to smile like the rest of the group or even give his best effort from what we saw in the pre-season. I am starting to believe this guy doesn't want to be here. Unfortunately it is too early to get a good return for him I think, the Flames are going to have to wait this one out for awhile. Very disappointing to me.
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I am also joining the club. My info was the Flames final offer was 9Mx8yrs and I really thought Lindholm would take it, I was absolutely wrong. I am not sure if it is the structure, the bonuses, or he thinks he can get more but I always believed this number would get it done. As I said before something strikes me in the way he doesn't seem to smile like the rest of the group or even give his best effort from what we saw in the pre-season. I am starting to believe this guy doesn't want to be here. Unfortunately it is too early to get a good return for him I think, the Flames are going to have to wait this one out for awhile. Very disappointing to me.
Lindholm had all of the leverage. The Flames have to much money invested in long term veterans to not sign their number 1C. Especially without anyone close to replacing him.
But if he is walking away from 9x8 in hopes of a bigger number he might be overplaying his hand a bit. If he gets hurt or has another ho hum season he might be leaving a lot of cash on the table.
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