Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Gotta love the spin attempts within minutes to affirm one statement that while trying to refuting the next one...from the same fricking poll.

Approval ratings and best PM are totally different statements.

Poilievre is not a charismatic man, far from it. He grates on people's nerves and generally unlikeable.

But does approval rating mean much? Approval ratings had Trudeau as low as 31% in 2019, yet Liberals still won the 2019 elections.

https://angusreid.org/trudeau-tracker/

Meanwhile party leaders like Elizabeth May have had approval ratings ranked as high as 56% and that never amounted to May suddenly leading the Green Party to a majority.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/dion-s-approv...-poll-1.271061

Now it does mean that CPC is ahead not because of Poilievre, but because they aren't the Liberal. But this doesn't help the Liberals right now.

Right, I'm saying the approval rate doesn't mean much without looking at regional distribution, which was the first thing posted which proves my point. It's not spin, it's reality.

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Azure

That being said, locally housing is a mess. Planning boards need to get cleaned out and replaced with people who care about this issue, and not are just power hungry sociopaths who let power get to their heads.

Do you think planning boards hate housing, or plan based on political whims that demand things like R-1 zoning protections and parking minimums?



Local politicians catering to the "I'm all for affordable housing but..." NIMBY crowd is the main barrier to housing and necessary zoning changes.

[calculoso]

Bank of CAnada:
That number: 0.15 percentage points of the inflation increase can be attributed to the carbon tax.



https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...gary-1.6960189

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Gotta love the spin attempts within minutes to affirm one statement that while trying to refuting the next one...from the same fricking poll.

What a weird statement. For one, it's not one poll, it's two. ActiveStick posted an Angus Reid poll while CliffFletcher posted an Abacus one.

And Fuzz saying that the Angus Red poll (which is broken down by region) might not bode well for translating to seats because of the distribution of the numbers, while simultaneously saying that the Abacus one (which isn't broken down by region) is hard to gauge because it's a single national number isn't inconsistent. In fact it's making the exact same point twice, that heavy regional concentration can lead to poorer vote efficiency (see the 2021 election where the Conservatives won the popular vote but lost the election).


Now you could argue that that point isn't all that relevant, but to pretend that there some sort of spin attempt or inconsistency is flat out wrong.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah I'm not sure if the boogyman campaign is going to work this time. This appears to be time where Canadians are looking for change and simply spinning the far right rhetoric isn't likely going to be enough.

Hell yeah it will work. They even used a picture with PP with his glasses on. It's game over.

They just needed a pic with with the deplorable with 2 olive branches in his hands and it's a majority gov't.

[Looch City]

Do we really want a Prime Minister who cares more about his looks than leading this country??

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Clearly Liberals having chosen on tripling down on the negative rhetoric versus working to find solutions for Canadians on issues that matter to Canadians while governing.

Cue dark ominous music...FAR-RIGHT AMERICAN STYLE POLITICS

And the conservatives have an attack dog as their leader

Sure sets up well for a positivity focused battle

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Do we really want a Prime Minister who cares more about his looks than leading this country??

Are you talking about PP or JT?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

are you talking about pp or jt?

js

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Hell yeah it will work. They even used a picture with PP with his glasses on. It's game over.

They just needed a pic with with the deplorable with 2 olive branches in his hands and it's a majority gov't.

Sadly, you are not totally wrong. Many people will fall for the same old bs.

Trudeau may be a terrible PM, but he is good at speeches and campaigning.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by opendoor

What a weird statement. For one, it's not one poll, it's two. ActiveStick posted an Angus Reid poll while CliffFletcher posted an Abacus one.

CliffFletcher referred to 2 different polls and pointed out the PM question with a graph from Angus (which Yoho also refered to). Fuzz didn't quote what he was replying to or who he was replying to even. I assumed he was replying to the data graphed from Angus by 2 posters.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Right, I'm saying the approval rate doesn't mean much without looking at regional distribution, which was the first thing posted which proves my point. It's not spin, it's reality.

Approval rating doesn't mean much in general other than to make general impressions about a party leader, which does not directly translate to election results or how someone votes.

You can also see the polling numbers in more detail here

https://angusreid.org/wp-content/upl...oli_tables.pdf

You will see that outside of Quebec CPC is the clear voter favourite across all provinces. Even going down to regional distribution it's looking bad for Liberals (Toronto 905 is heavily CPC, and Toronto 416 CPC are only 3 points behind Liberals).

It's even worse when looking at the atlantic numbers with CPC polling at the 40% or higher mark (2021 voting result was 29% in NS, which is now 40%, that's a huge jump).

QF1/QF2/QF3. (Decided Voters) Will support+ Leaning is the table you want to look at.

As for the Abacus data distribution the last slide they have has the regional distribution and weights (for the stat that really matters most, voting intention)



That you choose to put so much emphasis on Poilievre's approval numbers as if they matter in terms of seats or voting intent is not backed factually, regional distribution on approval ratings is moot. In the same Angus Reid poll, Singh has an approval rating of 42%, higher than both Poilievre and Trudeau, and the NDP is bleeding support and not winning an election anytime soon.

Also considering that Poilievre's approval rating a year ago was 19%, he's on the upswing!

[Looch City]

Do we even need to have an election? We should just declare PP king already. The polls are clear!

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Do we even need to have an election? We should just declare PP king already. The polls are clear!

I would sign that petition.

[Jacks]

An election must be close, the Liberals are talking about abortion.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

I would sign that petition.

That's really all Conservatives want. A King. Never have another election because the Conservative option is always the only choice. It's baffling. Do you even want to live in a democracy?

[Monahammer]

It's still 2 years until election and as yet there is no reason for the liberal party or NDP to kneecap themselves before full term is up. The polling numbers essentially guarantee this is going as long as possible.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That's really all Conservatives want. A King. Never have another election because the Conservative option is always the only choice. It's baffling. Do you even want to live in a democracy?

No. Definitely don’t want to live in a democracy. SMH.

You forgot to make the text green.


Do want a decent leader though. Would be a welcome change from what we have.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

It's still 2 years until election and as yet there is no reason for the liberal party or NDP to kneecap themselves before full term is up. The polling numbers essentially guarantee this is going as long as possible.

Yeah, the only way we get am election before the term is up is if either the NDP or Liberals have very strong poll numbers and decide to force one.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

No. Definitely don’t want to live in a democracy. SMH.

You forgot to make the text green.

Do want a decent leader though. Would be a welcome change from what we have.

Well explain it then. Why do most Conservatives spend their whole life voting Conservative? Would they not be happier with a King? They'd get exactly what they want, forever.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah, the only way we get am election before the term is up is if either the NDP or Liberals have very strong poll numbers and decide to force one.

A Trudeau exit would trigger a leadership race and election too. Not highly probable today but if the winds of change start to blow that could change pretty rapidly,