Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I agree that the brunt of the failings will be on the Liberals but as long as the NDP keep voting on policy issues in the House on the side of the Liberals it will weigh on them to some degree. They can't wash themselves of the stink if they look like an extension of the pile.

Sure, but they know they're not forming government in the next term, so what works best for them now? They serve their voting base, and they're getting their platform pushed through using the Liberals as an enabler. That likely won't be an option in two years.

Again, the NDP's time is now.

[Johnny Makarov]

These political threads feels different this morning. what happened on the weekend... ? lol

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by timun

Eh, are the NDP really going to be seen as causing the issues the Liberals face? I don't think so. Their wagon is not inextricably hitched to the Liberals. And the overlap between NDP voters and CPC voters is pretty slim, so it's not as though the NDP will bleed off lots of swing voters. The NDP's biggest problem—as it usually is—is that they're looked upon as ineffectual pie-in-the-sky policymakers whom you couldn't trust to actually run government. That, and Jagmeet Singh is seen as a nice guy but an effete goof. The NDP's biggest threat in the next election, whenever that may be, is disaffected loyal voters just stay home altogether. As such they'll stand pat for the foreseeable future.

The NDP is losing support and not gaining them from disenfranchised Liberal voters according to 338Canada.

There is opportunity for the NDP to step up and fill in the opposition (like Layton in 2011) but they are currently choosing to stay in the Liberals shadow for some unexplainable reason.

When they had no power to speak of, the NDP would put up these motions for affordable housing multiple times to score political points.

https://www.ndp.ca/news/liberals-vot...d-homelessness

https://www.ndp.ca/news/liberals-vot...housing-crisis

https://www.ndp.ca/news/liberals-vot...rdable-housing

The NDP could have used the current coalition to bring forth a new motion for affordable housing, yet consciously chooses not to. Instead Singh uses Twitter to virtue signal against corporate greed while voting for Liberal motions that negatively impact Canadians.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

The NDP is losing support and not gaining them from disenfranchised Liberal voters according to 338Canada.

I don't think there's much evidence that they're losing support. They're polling right in the 17-20% range they've been in for the last couple of years, which is higher than their vote share in either of the last 2 elections. They're not really gaining support, but the last time the Liberals were this unpopular in mid-2019, the NDP was polling even lower than they are now.

The NDP probably sees things going 2 ways, neither of which would suggest they want to push an election:

1) Liberals remain unpopular, which will probably benefit the NDP simply due to a lack of other options.

2) Liberals regain some of their popularity, which means there's a chance for the NDP to have direct influence on policy if the Liberals somehow manage another minority government.

[2Stonedbirds]

Honestly I feel if the NDP bleeds any more support than they already had over the last couple elections, I see those disenfranchised voters perhaps going green.
The green party always polls better than they show on election day, I'm not sure that'll be the case this next election.
Maybe they grab a few seats, but if you're upset but the lack of anything substantial from a federal NDP LPC coalition, where do you park your vote? Some may swing to the CPC but most of those voters will view them as a non starter.
A protest vote this cycle probably sees the Greens pick up a few seats, decimation of the LPC and NDP parties, and a rather large CPC majority. If it wasn't headed that way already.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Honestly I feel if the NDP bleeds any more support than they already had over the last couple elections, I see those disenfranchised voters perhaps going green.
The green party always polls better than they show on election day, I'm not sure that'll be the case this next election.
Maybe they grab a few seats, but if you're upset but the lack of anything substantial from a federal NDP LPC coalition, where do you park your vote? Some may swing to the CPC but most of those voters will view them as a non starter.
A protest vote this cycle probably sees the Greens pick up a few seats, decimation of the LPC and NDP parties, and a rather large CPC majority. If it wasn't headed that way already.

The Greens are a disaster and May just had a stroke. That party isn’t getting anything.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

Honestly I feel if the NDP bleeds any more support than they already had over the last couple elections, I see those disenfranchised voters perhaps going green.
The green party always polls better than they show on election day, I'm not sure that'll be the case this next election.
Maybe they grab a few seats, but if you're upset but the lack of anything substantial from a federal NDP LPC coalition, where do you park your vote? Some may swing to the CPC but most of those voters will view them as a non starter.
A protest vote this cycle probably sees the Greens pick up a few seats, decimation of the LPC and NDP parties, and a rather large CPC majority. If it wasn't headed that way already.

I vote for the greens purely as a protest vote, because I live in rural Alberta and it ain't even close. That said, I voted differently when I lived in Edmonton knowing that my vote counted for something.

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

The Greens are a disaster and May just had a stroke. That party isn’t getting anything.

It doesn't have to in order to steal seats from the NDP or LPC.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

It doesn't have to in order to steal seats from the NDP or LPC.

in the past when the green have had a surge in popularity, there has been a response by the big three parties to incorporate environmental policies. I am happy with this function.

[timun]

Originally Posted by Firebot

The NDP is losing support and not gaining them from disenfranchised Liberal voters according to 338Canada.

Right. And I wrote, "The NDP's biggest threat in the next election, whenever that may be, is disaffected loyal voters just stay home altogether." I don't see them bleeding votes to the CPC, nor the Liberals. Maybe the Greens, but the Greens are such a hot mess I can't fathom anyone voting for them at all come next election.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by 2Stonedbirds

It doesn't have to in order to steal seats from the NDP or LPC.

It does, though?

They actually have to be a somewhat viable alternative to be an alternative at all. There’s no value there.

The party has an all-time record of a whopping 3 seats and you think they’re a danger to steal any seats from the NDP or LPC? They’ll be lucky to hold on to both the seats they have currently.

[opendoor]

It would be the Conservatives getting the seats. There are quite a few ridings in BC where if the Greens have a strong showing by pulling votes from the Liberals and NDP, that the Conservatives could skate through with a win.

[2Stonedbirds]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It does, though?

They actually have to be a somewhat viable alternative to be an alternative at all. There’s no value there.

The party has an all-time record of a whopping 3 seats and you think they’re a danger to steal any seats from the NDP or LPC? They’ll be lucky to hold on to both the seats they have currently.

A protest vote doesn't mean it has to go to a worthwhile party.

[timun]

2StonedBirds and PepsiFree: I think you are agreeing to essentially the same thing, but PepsiFree is making the point that the Green Party is in such shambles they're unlikely to get many votes at all, even "protest votes", thus they obviously won't win seats of their own nor would they move the needle for a left-wing vote split that nets the CPC a plurality of votes in mostly "left-wing" ridings.



I still think the greater likelihood that may net the CPC seats is prospective NDP and Liberal voters simply not voting at all.

[Slava]

Well considering we just had an election here in Alberta where the polls were showing a complete landslide for one party, and then the other party won, perhaps people are getting ahead of themselves. Maybe the Liberals have a new leader before the election. Maybe the CPC and/or PP say something stupid. Maybe both.

It's just far too soon to say that it's a question of whether this is a CPC minority/majority.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well considering we just had an election here in Alberta where the polls were showing a complete landslide for one party, and then the other party won, perhaps people are getting ahead of themselves. Maybe the Liberals have a new leader before the election. Maybe the CPC and/or PP say something stupid. Maybe both.

It's just far too soon to say that it's a question of whether this is a CPC minority/majority.

Not to mention there’s all kinds of time for the LPC to do things like pass legislation for grocery rebates and other forms of financial assistance. Can’t see the NDP putting up roadblocks for that and it won’t look good if the CPC oppose it either.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Slava

Well considering we just had an election here in Alberta where the polls were showing a complete landslide for one party, and then the other party won

I don’t recall seeing anything like a “complete landslide” for either party, frankly.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I don’t disagree that it’s very soon to be using the polls as predictors of anything, but that isn’t quite the same thing as saying that they don’t matter at all. Obviously they matter, and if you’re a Liberal you must be looking at these numbers with alarm. The most recent data does suggest a CPC majority if an election were held today.

On the Alberta election, I actually don’t know if we can really say the polls were all that far off. By the end most were showing a UPC majority, and that’s what we got albeit a very narrow one. We certainly didn’t see an NDP landslide but speaking personally I didn’t really expect one. I try not to make too many predictions (I’m mostly wrong…) but my recollection is that before the election we all figured it would be a close race, and it was. There might have been some outliers in the polls but I think that’s where the polling average would lead you.

In this case, even if the CPC manages to lose again, it won’t be because these polling numbers were wrong—it will be something to do with events between now and then causing voter preferences to shift. Sometimes preferences are a bit less “sticky” when an election is farther away, and that’s what can make polls this far out from an election a little less reliable in the long term. But they absolutely still matter.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's not even really a matter of shifts in voter preferences, it's that the vast majority of voters don't have a clue what their preference is, beyond "that Trudeau guy is still PM and things in this country don't seem to be going well". They aren't engaged. When they become engaged, to the extent they do, it will be a few months from an election, at which point they'll make an actual decision about who to vote for.

So, yes, they matter, as a barometer of how pissed off everyone is at the current ruling party at this particular moment. The answer is "quite". I bet if you polled everyone eligible to vote and showed them a picture of Pierre Poilievre and asked "who is this guy", as many as half would have no idea.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I agree. And I kind of maintain my view that if the LPC can cast this election as a “choice” between an incumbent most people don’t like very much and a challenger who is not aligned with their values, they still could win the election even with Trudeau at the helm. To the extent the election becomes a “referendum” on Trudeau, he’s in deep trouble. He’s unpopular and honestly I think even Liberals are a bit tired of him.