Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Fuzz]

Most of these polls are 1000-2000 people, so that's, what 5 people per riding? I don't think you can project these national polls out to indivdual riding or regions with any useful accuracy. These are good for judging a general national level of support for each party. Reading anything into them, particularly in the doldrums of summer with no election in sight and 3 largely unpopular leaders doesn't seem very useful.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Firebot

It may be wise for the Liberals to do an election sooner than later with these types of results (or at the very least sack Trudeau). Holding on to power while this unpopular for another 2 years may completely wipe out the Liberals similar to the PC in 1993, and may bring the Liberals in a dark age with no clear successor.

I don't know if that's the best comparison. In 1991 (roughly equivalent to now in terms of election timelines) the PCs were polling at ~15%; as bad as the Liberals' recent numbers have been, they're nowhere near that.

But more importantly, the PCs recovered dramatically over the next 2 years and were eventually leading in the polls when the election was called. And Campbell had a much higher favorability rating than Chretien. It was only after a disastrous campaign that the Liberals pulled ahead, eventually winning a majority.

So if they're going to take lessons from that era, they'd be well advised to try to hold on as long as possible and hope their current fortunes pass and their numbers improve. And if that doesn't happen in the next 6-12 months, ditch Trudeau and hope to get the bump Campbell gave the PCs (but without the terrible campaign afterwards).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Most of these polls are 1000-2000 people, so that's, what 5 people per riding? I don't think you can project these national polls out to indivdual riding or regions with any useful accuracy. These are good for judging a general national level of support for each party. Reading anything into them, particularly in the doldrums of summer with no election in sight and 3 largely unpopular leaders doesn't seem very useful.

You can with reasonable accuracy build up riding level bias and regional bias over time with multiple polls and eclecticism results so you can project national polling into seat counts.

Totally agree with you on your second point. We are a year out at least from an election so doesn’t matter.

[Doctorfever]

I think the only reason people are paying attention to the polling now is because the popularity of the governing party is sinking. Which means that more and more people are unhappy with the way things are going.

Being a year away from an election, ya, lots can change for sure. But the Liberals are certainly watching the polls, hence the change in cabinet. Also why you see Trudeau giving different answers on housing affordability, in terms of if it’s the Feds responsibility or not.

[Ozy_Flame]

Wouldn't the next election be in 2025? Two years?

[Fuzz]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1695454152615190979


Well Pierre just lost any chance I may have considered voting Conservative. WTF? Baking up this stupidity? #### right off. Even the absolutely insane Danielle Smith finally, rightfully accepted this is a medical decision made by experts who understand the reasoning, not a handful of moronic politicians who are using her death as an excuse to cater to morons and selfish idiots. They should be ashamed of themselves. Half the reason she is dead is because of people like this using her and encouraging her to keep fighting the dumbest fight in history. They've got her blood on their hands and yet continue to use her for their own goals. ####ing gross, man.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1695584284516679727

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Wouldn't the next election be in 2025? Two years?

The NDP might choose to have an election earlier, if they are polling higher than the Liberals. Probably depends if that party has any $ in their accounts to support a campaign.

Guess you never know. I was surprised the last election came during a pandemic, so anything is possible.

[Doctorfever]

https://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...ers-must-sting

Among those aged 18-29, Abacus finds 33% back the Conservatives compared to 26% backing the NDP and 23% supporting the Liberals. For those aged 30-44, the Conservatives have the support of 42% of voters while the NDP picks up 23% and the Liberals 22%.

[Ozy_Flame]

I don't doubt the numbers. I just doubt the early election call. Libs are going to use their sweet time to try and turn things around (even though the economy is humming), and the NDP are getting their platform items in.

Also gives time for the Libs to find a new leader.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Most of these polls are 1000-2000 people, so that's, what 5 people per riding? I don't think you can project these national polls out to indivdual riding or regions with any useful accuracy. These are good for judging a general national level of support for each party. Reading anything into them, particularly in the doldrums of summer with no election in sight and 3 largely unpopular leaders doesn't seem very useful.

I agree on your point in value in local areas where the numbers would be too low of a sample to get a local idea from one poll, but these get build over time, not from a single poll.

To say that poll numbers in the summer don't matter...the Liberals called an election in the middle of a pandemic in the summer to bank on high approval numbers.

You could be certain that if the Liberals were polling high this summer, we would likely have an earlier elections to bank on the possibility of a Liberal majority. Polls do matter, summer or no summer.

Polls are the reason we had a hastily planned cabinet shuffle earlier this month. Polls are also why we may see an early Trudeau exit to salvage the next election and why Liberals are suddenly backtracking on issues like immigration they previously doubled down on. I'm a pretty big critic of polling accuracy in general due to how they poll can lead to skewed data but they have their merits.

Poilievre's new image is likely to do with how poorly he polls with women.

https://www.nationalobserver.com/202...n-battle-sexes

To outright ignore polls is not a good idea.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I don't doubt the numbers. I just doubt the early election call. Libs are going to use their sweet time to try and turn things around (even though the economy is humming), and the NDP are getting their platform items in.

Also gives time for the Libs to find a new leader.

Please ####ing god make this happen.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Please ####ing god make this happen.

Yep, agreed. I feel if they can find a new leader, announce it early, and make even a little bit of progress on a federal housing policy, this would help them out considerably for the next election.

[Ozy_Flame]

Another reason why the NDP won't drop the hammer on the Libs for an early election call is because they currently have political leverage over them, and with a pending CPC government, they'll have no power at all. They'll lose their conduit to pass legislation, as the CPC in its current form will likely not work with the NDP on anything. Best to sit at the table rather not sit at the table at all.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Another reason why the NDP won't drop the hammer on the Libs for an early election call is because they currently have political leverage over them, and with a pending CPC government, they'll have no power at all. They'll lose their conduit to pass legislation, as the CPC in its current form will likely not work with the NDP on anything. Best to sit at the table rather not sit at the table at all.

It is definitely beneficial to them right now in terms of getting a few things done like their health care plans (dental and pharmacare) but if the Liberals continue to slide in popularity and in policy implementation that negative will transfer over to the NDP to some degree as well. It might be tough to establish separation when you prop up and support a failing entity.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

It is definitely beneficial to them right now in terms of getting a few things done like their health care plans (dental and pharmacare) but if the Liberals continue to slide in popularity and in policy implementation that negative will transfer over to the NDP to some degree as well. It might be tough to establish separation when you prop up and support a failing entity.

This seems mostly like conservative-led fantasy. The NDP isn’t fighting for the same voters that the Conservatives are fighting for.

[timun]

Eh, are the NDP really going to be seen as causing the issues the Liberals face? I don't think so. Their wagon is not inextricably hitched to the Liberals. And the overlap between NDP voters and CPC voters is pretty slim, so it's not as though the NDP will bleed off lots of swing voters. The NDP's biggest problem—as it usually is—is that they're looked upon as ineffectual pie-in-the-sky policymakers whom you couldn't trust to actually run government. That, and Jagmeet Singh is seen as a nice guy but an effete goof. The NDP's biggest threat in the next election, whenever that may be, is disaffected loyal voters just stay home altogether. As such they'll stand pat for the foreseeable future.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

It is definitely beneficial to them right now in terms of getting a few things done like their health care plans (dental and pharmacare) but if the Liberals continue to slide in popularity and in policy implementation that negative will transfer over to the NDP to some degree as well. It might be tough to establish separation when you prop up and support a failing entity.

I don't agree with this. The failure of the current government will be squarely on the Libs, just as the proverbial scapegoat because they sit on the throne. The average Canadian won't be able to discern any failure of NDP politicking from Liberal failings, and thus will likely avoid taking the brunt of the current government (if any at all).

The NDP also aren't stupid; they know the Libs are toast and will look as the remaining window to push their agenda items. I don't think looking at third-party polls and expecting them to step down from that is accurate here. The NDP are going to be relegated to 2nd position at best after the next election, and that's a BIG if. Their time is now.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

https://torontosun.com/opinion/colum...ers-must-sting

So if we zoom out a little 18-29 33% support right wing politics and 49% support left wing politics.

30-44 is a little closer 42% rightwing politics and 45% left wing politics.

This emboldens what I have been saying. If the CPC wants to form government they need to re brand their social politics. The large majority of Voters under 44 have different social values that the CPC.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I don't agree with this. The failure of the current government will be squarely on the Libs, just as the proverbial scapegoat because they sit on the throne. The average Canadian won't be able to discern any failure of NDP politicking from Liberal failings, and thus will likely avoid taking the brunt of the current government (if any at all).

The NDP also aren't stupid; they know the Libs are toast and will look as the remaining window to push their agenda items. I don't think looking at third-party polls and expecting them to step down from that is accurate here. The NDP are going to be relegated to 2nd position at best after the next election, and that's a BIG if. Their time is now.

I agree that the brunt of the failings will be on the Liberals but as long as the NDP keep voting on policy issues in the House on the side of the Liberals it will weigh on them to some degree. They can't wash themselves of the stink if they look like an extension of the pile.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

This seems mostly like conservative-led fantasy. The NDP isn’t fighting for the same voters that the Conservatives are fighting for.

Probably not. But in many cases they're fighting for the same ridings.

There were 56 ridings in the last election where the CPC/NDP (in either order) placed 1/2.

This is especially relevant in certain Ontario ridings (Oshawa, Essex) where there is a strong union/blue collar NDP tradition. That wing of the NDP is very much NOT ascendant federally.