Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by opendoor

If you want more affordable housing, a recession is really the only answer.

Okay, hurry up and lose your jobs people! Get a move on!

Spoiler!

/s

[Firebot]

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/conserva...poll-1.6528381

"We have four polls in the last six weeks that have the Conservatives above the 20 per cent mark in Quebec, so this seems to be more than just fluctuation. It seems to be a modest but real trend upward for the Conservatives," said Philippe J. Fournier, a poll analyst and founder of 338Canada.com -- which commissioned the Pallas Data poll -- in an interview.

CPC is currently polling in Quebec at their highest number seen since 1988's PC Mulroney and before the Bloc Quebecois. The highest Harper was 23% in 2006, and CPC has been doing notably poorly in Quebec for quite some years. Most notable is the Liberal support spiraling down to below 30% where they may be losing on some traditionally safe Liberal areas in the Montreal area.

Atlantic, a Liberal stronghold in the past also has CPC trending upwards and neck and neck. We may be seeing a united Canada from coast to coast with a clear message of anger with reality of poor Liberal policies and perceived lack of action on issues that matter to Canadians setting in. The most recent Meta fiasco surely will not be seen as a positive but elections are still a long time away and lots can happen (something conservatives need to remember and not stupidly provide a wedge issue on a silver platter)

[opendoor]

I don't know, to me it looks more like the biggest effect is that Poilievre has been successful at bringing the PPC crazies back into the Conservative fold. The last election was:

Conservatives: 34.3%
PPC: 4.9%

Total: 39.2%

Now the 338 polling aggregate is showing:

Conservatives: 37%
PPC: 2%

Total: 39%


Whereas the Liberal + NDP numbers are basically identical to the last election (49% in the polling aggregate vs. 50.4% in the election). There has been a very slight movement towards the Greens (5% in the polling vs. 2.3% in the election), but that normally doesn't actually materialize on election day so I'd expect the Liberals/NDP to come in right around last election's vote share based on current polling.

To be honest, it's a pretty good strategy by the Conservatives, even if it's not good for the country. It probably explains Poilievre's flirting with conspiracy theory weirdos and ranting about the WEF and digital ID.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I think it's more that Bernier has been shouting at clouds for longer and after a while even the people who are inclined to agree with his shouting get bored.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1694751452902617112

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't know, to me it looks more like the biggest effect is that Poilievre has been successful at bringing the PPC crazies back into the Conservative fold. The last election was:

Conservatives: 34.3%
PPC: 4.9%

Total: 39.2%

Now the 338 polling aggregate is showing:

Conservatives: 37%
PPC: 2%

Total: 39%

Whereas the Liberal + NDP numbers are basically identical to the last election (49% in the polling aggregate vs. 50.4% in the election). There has been a very slight movement towards the Greens (5% in the polling vs. 2.3% in the election), but that normally doesn't actually materialize on election day so I'd expect the Liberals/NDP to come in right around last election's vote share based on current polling.

To be honest, it's a pretty good strategy by the Conservatives, even if it's not good for the country. It probably explains Poilievre's flirting with conspiracy theory weirdos and ranting about the WEF and digital ID.

It may look that way on the surface, but reality is it seems the Liberals are losing ground to the Conservatives with millennial and Gen Z voters. They are concerned about affordability, amongst other things.

This renewed messaging targeted at younger voters also follows recent polling by Abacus Data, which found the Liberals were trailing the Conservatives by 11 points among millennials (those born between 1980 and 1996), and among Gen Z voters (those born between 1997 and 2005) Trudeau's party is four points behind Poilievre's Conservative Party.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trud...lans-1.6530828

I think people are fed up with rising housing costs, food costs, and general cost of living.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

It may look that way on the surface, but reality is it seems the Liberals are losing ground to the Conservatives with millennial and Gen Z voters. They are concerned about affordability, amongst other things.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trud...lans-1.6530828

I think people are fed up with rising housing costs, food costs, and general cost of living.

Not really; the same effect exists within age groups. In Abacus Data's final 2021 election poll, 38% of that age group supported the Conservatives (30%) or PPC (8%). In the latest poll that number is 39% (35% for Conservatives and 4% for PPC). So essentially their entire gain with that age group has come from cannibalizing PPC support.

The Liberals have certainly dropped, but their drop of 8 points is exactly the same as the NDP + Green gains (3% and 5% respectively) in that age group, so there isn't much evidence of voters shifting from the Liberals to the Conservatives.

[White Out 403]

I don't blame young people, the liberals have literally done nothing about the housing crisis. Zilch. And snake oil Justin Trudeau actually ran on it in his platform that he would address it as his primary concern.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

I don't blame young people, the liberals have literally done nothing about the housing crisis. Zilch. And snake oil Justin Trudeau actually ran on it in his platform that he would address it as his primary concern.

I've said this before, but will say it again. Why the #### can't the CPC put out a platform/leader that will win an election?

These are Provinces with Conservatives Gov'ts:

Alberta
Manitoba
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Ontario
PEI
Saskatchewan, hell let's chuck them in


That is a large chunk of the population that are attracted to Conservative values, but federally the CPC #### the bed.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I've said this before, but will say it again. Why the #### can't the CPC put out a platform/leader that will win an election?

These are Provinces with Conservatives Gov'ts:

Alberta
Manitoba
New Brunswick
Nova Scotia
Ontario
PEI
Saskatchewan, hell let's chuck them in


That is a large chunk of the population that are attracted to Conservative values, but federally the CPC #### the bed.

I think the answer is for most that trot this excuse out that no matter who the CPC leader this same excuse will be used over and over again to justify continuing to blindly vote liberal.

By the way I wouldn’t bet against this “unelectable” CPC leader.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1695073549403230693

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Yoho

I think the answer is for most that trot this excuse out that no matter who the CPC leader this same excuse will be used over and over again to justify continuing to blindly vote liberal.

By the way I wouldn’t bet against this “unelectable” CPC leader.

What excuse?

what is the excuse that is blindly trotted out?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

What excuse?

what is the excuse that is blindly trotted out?

Well the World Economic Forum brainwashing Canadians with their plan for global dominance is one obvious way example.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Not really; the same effect exists within age groups. In Abacus Data's final 2021 election poll, 38% of that age group supported the Conservatives (30%) or PPC (8%). In the latest poll that number is 39% (35% for Conservatives and 4% for PPC). So essentially their entire gain with that age group has come from cannibalizing PPC support.

The Liberals have certainly dropped, but their drop of 8 points is exactly the same as the NDP + Green gains (3% and 5% respectively) in that age group, so there isn't much evidence of voters shifting from the Liberals to the Conservatives.

It's shockingly sad that Liberals are doing so poorly with this demographic; it should be the easiest group for them to win over.
Shows how bad JT is; young people just can't respect him as a leadership figure.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Yoho

I think the answer is for most that trot this excuse out that no matter who the CPC leader this same excuse will be used over and over again to justify continuing to blindly vote liberal.

By the way I wouldn’t bet against this “unelectable” CPC leader.

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

What excuse?

what is the excuse that is blindly trotted out?

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well the World Economic Forum brainwashing Canadians with their plan for global dominance is one obvious way example.

Thanks I'll patiently wait for Yoho

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

It's shockingly sad that Liberals are doing so poorly with this demographic; it should be the easiest group for them to win over.
Shows how bad JT is; young people just can't respect him as a leadership figure.

If you're young (or even older) and what you're seeing as you enter the workforce is minimal well paying jobs, sky high rent, high food prices, high interest rates and little pathway to home ownership, you're not going to be happy with how things are being run. The time of feel good socially oriented political campaigns is done, its going to be primarily about economics now. At the end of the day everyone wants a chance to build a decent quality of life, and Trudeau's government hasn't developed an environment that enables that.

Now, it's not like I think a Pollievre government is going to magically fix all of that stuff, but he's hitting all the right notes with what people are experiencing while Trudeau seems tone deaf.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Thanks I'll patiently wait for Yoho

Just re read it a couple times and you’ll get the point. This non stop BS that the CPC can’t get an electable candidate. He’s running away with the polls right now so what’s your next excuse?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

It's shockingly sad that Liberals are doing so poorly with this demographic; it should be the easiest group for them to win over.
Shows how bad JT is; young people just can't respect him as a leadership figure.

I don't think it's all that surprising. I don't think neoliberal economic policies designed to favor the well off combined with social pandering was ever particularly exciting for younger people. The main reason the Liberals got those votes post-2015 was because people shifted from the NDP and Greens as the election got closer.

Now that doesn't mean it'll happen again. But based on the numbers, there's a pretty clear delineation between Conseratives/PPC and then everyone else. I suspect what Poilievre is trying to do right now is lock up the PPC crazies and then once there's a campaign he'll try to straddle the line between holding on to convoy vote while moderating to try to attract more from the center.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Yoho

Just re read it a couple times and you’ll get the point. This non stop BS that the CPC can’t get an electable candidate. He’s running away with the polls right now so what’s your next excuse?

I said I would be patient.

JT has successfully run 4 elections.

You are the guy throwing excuses around.

History says that the CPC can't/hasn't run a candidate or platform that appeals enough to win an election.

The provinces with Conservative Governments at the Provincial level is large, so why aren't those same people draw to the CPC?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Okay, hurry up and lose your jobs people! Get a move on!

Spoiler!

/s

You joke, but that's basically what interest rate hikes are designed to do. They use euphemisms like "softening of the labor market" and "wage price stability," but ultimately they want a certain number of people to lose their jobs in order to achieve their goals.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I said I would be patient.

JT has successfully run 4 elections.

You are the guy throwing excuses around.

History says that the CPC can't/hasn't run a candidate or platform that appeals enough to win an election.

The provinces with Conservative Governments at the Provincial level is large, so why aren't those same people draw to the CPC?

Sorry no. History says no PM has won 4 terms, and JT will not be the first. I missed that 4th election.

Edit Wilfred Laurier won 4 terms in 1908.