Discussion point - reason for lack of trades this off season

[The Original FFIV]

Probably one of the quietest off seasons on record. For sure, cap plays a role.

However, lots of names on the block remain on the block. And many of those players could help other teams. Yet, they remain on their current teams.

Which begs the question - are NHL GMs more interested in improving their teams or screwing over their counterparts? It would behoove the GM to do what it takes to improve their team, but if that’s the case, why the lack of activity? Retained salary would appear to mitigate cap considerations. So why aren’t more deals being made?

Not just our team but look at teams like Winnipeg as well. #1G and #1C are positions that teams covet, yet Scheifele and Hellebuyck are still on their roster.

Are buyers lowballing or are sellers asking too much or both?

Growing up in the 80s/90s there was a lot more player movement. For sure, no cap or ntc/nmc were around. But you have GMs like Dubas/Hughes that are creative and make stuff happen. Need more GMs like that. Player movement has always been one of the fun points of being a fan (probably not for players) and to have things lock up has taken some of thr fun out of being a fan.

Interested to hear others thoughts.

[Reggie Dunlop]

More NTCs and NMCs? Seems like they're handed out like candy these days. Used to be only the top, top talent would get them.

[VilleN]

I think part of the reason is the cap stagnation since COVID. Teams are waiting to see what happens with the cap so they can plan accordingly. So for now, things are a bit locked up because of that.

[Bingo]

Expected gap increase in the next few years has players on expiring contracts not wanting to sign extensions and the tight cap since covid has too many teams with zero space to add without shedding equal salary.

[Robbob]

Looking at Capfirendly, 18 of 32 teams have less than a 1M in cap space right now. 12 are in the red. Once Bouchard signs in Edmonton that gets bumped to 19 and 13. There isn't a lot of room right now to make trade as 2/3 of the league have painted themselves into a corner. Every GM knows this and that probably makes the prices higher as those ELC contracts are worth their weight in gold when the cap is flat.

Right now it is a game of chicken to see who blinks. Unfortunately for the Flames, they always seem to be unlucky in terms of timing. When they had cap space, they couldn't weaponize it back in 2013-14. One of the worst season the franchise had was probably one of the worst draft classes. Now, when they want to make moves, they really are one of the few people on the dance floor.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Cap stagnation is for sure the #1 reason. Next would be NMCs/NTCs also mentioned. Quality veterans willing to sign at very low salaries have not helped the equation. Lastly, players taking on 1-2 year deals in hopes for the cap to go up.

The best course of action for Calgary is holding onto the players until the right deal comes along before the season, or waiting until injuries around the league happen. Obviously you don’t want to walk into the season with that many pending UFAs but we don’t really have a choice unless you’re wanting a Toffoli-like deal.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Expected gap increase in the next few years has players on expiring contracts not wanting to sign extensions and the tight cap since covid has too many teams with zero space to add without shedding equal salary.

Exactly the reason Lindy probably hasn't extended. If he signs 9MM now, there will be a wailing and gnashing of teeth. If he signs 9MM when the cap is 90MM+, it will seem like a great deal.

[Bandwagon Surfer]

Originally Posted by VilleN

I think part of the reason is the cap stagnation since COVID. Teams are waiting to see what happens with the cap so they can plan accordingly. So for now, things are a bit locked up because of that.

The cap was over inflating before then covid too. Existing players were paying for this through escrow. I would say covid revealed existing issues, more than being the caise of them.

I see the current situation is a culmination of a lot of things, that reached a tipping point, then compounding on top of each other.

Like GMs have been signing bad contracts and making "sacrifice the future of the present" decisions for years.

• Every bad decision incurred some debt, but this debt was hidden with a quickly rising cap and other teams willing to take bad contracts.
• The cap rising at an unsustainable rate could not go on forever, escrow was growing too much, then covid really slowed everything down.
• With the cap growth slowing it limits both how much bad decision debt a team hide in their own cap, as well as limiting how much cap is available to teams willing to take cap.
• The end result is a lot of demand from teams finding their debt harder to manage than expected. But also lot less supply of cap space
• Markets react to these supply and demand changes as markets do. Cap space and cost controlled assets (draft picks, prospects, rfas) spike in value, debt assets crash in value.
• People holding assets whose value dropped try to hold onto these assets hoping they increase in value.

Give it time, the market will correct itself. Assets can only be held so long, eventually someone will have to break and take the hit. The lack of cap space will also force new contracts to be more in line too. This will move the supply & demand balance back to a more balanced position in the future.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

More NTCs and NMCs? Seems like they're handed out like candy these days. Used to be only the top, top talent would get them.

Yes

Originally Posted by VilleN

I think part of the reason is the cap stagnation since COVID. Teams are waiting to see what happens with the cap so they can plan accordingly. So for now, things are a bit locked up because of that.

Yes

Originally Posted by Bingo

Expected gap increase in the next few years has players on expiring contracts not wanting to sign extensions and the tight cap since covid has too many teams with zero space to add without shedding equal salary.

Yes

Originally Posted by Robbob

Looking at Capfirendly, 18 of 32 teams have less than a 1M in cap space right now. 12 are in the red. Once Bouchard signs in Edmonton that gets bumped to 19 and 13. There isn't a lot of room right now to make trade as 2/3 of the league have painted themselves into a corner. Every GM knows this and that probably makes the prices higher as those ELC contracts are worth their weight in gold when the cap is flat.

Yes.

Also, this was a very very deep draft so no one was prepared to give up picks in it. That chilled things pre draft. Afterwards, teams were stuck with what they had.

Top end salaries have vastly outpaced cap increases as well. So teams are not able to pay their core guys and make deals for other help.

[DeluxeMoustache]

GMs have certainly painted themselves into corners at this point in time

We saw before last off season that the NHL gave guidance of projected increase, and it was to be ~83.5 this year, 87.5-88 next year, then 92 the following year. I was wondering how reliable that is, as it was just guidance

What is the expected reasoning for a projected cap increase in the coming years? I was wondering if there is a new HRR source. If I understand correctly, there is no change to the TV deals as they are in place - Rogers 12 year deal wraps up in 2025, and both ESPN (Disney) and Turner deals are through 2027-8. So that can’t be it. Is it a result of the bump from 7 year TV deals being offset by decrease in revenue due to Covid, and a return to normal? I’m assuming that’s most likely the case

So hopefully it can be relied on. Hopefully this is the low point in terms of stagnant off seasons

One thing for sure, locally. Treliving allocated a good chunk of Calgary’s cap and left his successor holding the bag so I didn’t expect a lot to happen this off season

[Jason14h]

Next year has a very good UFA market as of right now and a cap that’s expected to go up

Why take on a salary past this year in a trade and ruin your flexibility

Just wait until the deadline and trade for a UFA to be

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Looking at Capfirendly, 18 of 32 teams have less than a 1M in cap space right now. 12 are in the red. Once Bouchard signs in Edmonton that gets bumped to 19 and 13. There isn't a lot of room right now to make trade as 2/3 of the league have painted themselves into a corner. Every GM knows this and that probably makes the prices higher as those ELC contracts are worth their weight in gold when the cap is flat.

Right now it is a game of chicken to see who blinks. Unfortunately for the Flames, they always seem to be unlucky in terms of timing. When they had cap space, they couldn't weaponize it back in 2013-14. One of the worst season the franchise had was probably one of the worst draft classes. Now, when they want to make moves, they really are one of the few people on the dance floor.

And of the 13 teams with cap, how many are competing and looking to add players? Most of the 13 are probably seller.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

GMs have certainly painted themselves into corners at this point in time

We saw before last off season that the NHL gave guidance of projected increase, and it was to be ~83.5 this year, 87.5-88 next year, then 92 the following year. I was wondering how reliable that is, as it was just guidance

What is the expected reasoning for a projected cap increase in the coming years? I was wondering if there is a new HRR source. If I understand correctly, there is no change to the TV deals as they are in place - Rogers 12 year deal wraps up in 2025, and both ESPN (Disney) and Turner deals are through 2027-8. So that can’t be it. Is it a result of the bump from 7 year TV deals being offset by decrease in revenue due to Covid, and a return to normal? I’m assuming that’s most likely the case

So hopefully it can be relied on. Hopefully this is the low point in terms of stagnant off seasons

One thing for sure, locally. Treliving allocated a good chunk of Calgary’s cap and left his successor holding the bag so I didn’t expect a lot to happen this off season

Hard to blame all the GMs. The cap staying stagnant for multiple years was pretty unprecedented. When you're building a championship team, you can't just keep millions in cap space open just incase there's a global pandemic.

There will definitely be an increase in cap. The teams are currently paying back the cap they used during Covid, where they had to go into the red. There as about $1.5 billion in escrow debt that needed to be paid back, which will occur this year. After that the cap automatically goes up based on current revenue.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by blankall

Hard to blame all the GMs. The cap staying stagnant for multiple years was pretty unprecedented. When you're building a championship team, you can't just keep millions in cap space open just incase there's a global pandemic.

There will definitely be an increase in cap. The teams are currently paying back the cap they used during Covid, where they had to go into the red. There as about $1.5 billion in escrow debt that needed to be paid back, which will occur this year. After that the cap automatically goes up based on current revenue.

Agree, not blaming them for unforeseen things. But at the same time, they have made the commitments they have to live with, and that includes all contracts signed in the last couple of years (which may be accepting pain today while looking forward to tomorrow)

Last year all teams were cap compliant (for the most part)

It is interesting how little space they have. If you look at capfriendly, as Robbob noted, 12 of 32 teams are over the cap and 19 are under a million

Taking that a step further, lots of teams are well under their contract limits. If you consider minimum contract value, something like only 6-8 teams could have their 50 contracts and be compliant

[SeanCharles]

I think it is honestly just as simple as the flat cap.

Even bottom feeder teams have minimal salary cap space to work with.

Every trade needs to essentially be money in = money out which makes trading much more difficult.

It's hilariously depressing how the Flames always seem to suffer from terrible timing. They have so many key assets that they need to make decisions on but the stagnant trade market has teams offering low ball offers so we are stuck holding onto them for now until things loosen up.

I just hope Conroy sticks to his word and doesn't let key assets walk for nothing come next offseason. Even if we are in a playoff spot we can't continue down this road of poor asset management.

[flambers]

Flat cap over the last few seasons, is likely one of the biggest challenges for the GM's.

Trades, are getting more and more challenging.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

More NTCs and NMCs? Seems like they're handed out like candy these days. Used to be only the top, top talent would get them.

That's a major part of it IMO. Out of all the professional sports leagues in North America, the NHL is the only one that has NTCs and NMCs into the triple digits. It's really hurting the ability for teams to be flexible and constructive.

[Sylvanfan]

Too many long term contracts in the NHL. If I'm an owner my goal is to get NFL style non fully guaranteed contracts. My minimum settlement is maximizing deals to 5 years.

With the cheaper short term second contract mostly gone...you now have two long term high price contracts in a players career. So teams get tied to their own players.

In the NFL teams cut good players quite frequently to clear cap space which creates more player movement through free agency. But there is not much for trades outside the draft. I think this is likely where the NHL will end up.

MLB is about the only league left where you get real trades now.

[moncton golden flames]

GM's in hockey are so worried about making a bad deal, they make little to no deals at all. Sure, the cap is a factor, NMC & NTC's make players are a factor, but in my opinion, GM's are afraid to take chances and end up getting stuck in their safe space. I would much rather a GM who takes swings and we ride the ups and downs, than one who plays it safe and doesn't rock the boat. We have been stuck in the latter mentality for as long as I've been a Flames fan (mid 80's), and I'm growing tired of being conservative. Continued mediocrity is driving a wedge between me and my team.

[CliffFletcher]

The next time you’re batting around the notion of a trade, open up capfriendly and look at the other team’s cap profile, depth chart, and NTCs. It’s all there in black and white: teams looking to get better are usually capped out a week after the UFA window opens, which means trades have to be cap out for cap in. But half of the veterans in the league have NTCs - on a lot of teams, 7 or 8 of the top 10 players on the roster have NTCs.

Even if the cap goes up, the trade market in the NHL will remain sclerotic due to long-term contracts and NTCs. And the windows for player movement will be largely confined to a few weeks around the draft/UFA and the trade deadline.