2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Poe969]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Blues were very solid depth, good team defence, and a goalie on a hot streak. It is pretty much the model the current version of the Flames have to hope to emulate.

So over the last however many years, 2 teams have won the cup as an underdog and instead of modelling themselves after the 95+% of the teams through building a winning team, they plan on doing what that 1 team did...

It almost never works, but it'll be different for us!

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I mean, does Dave Andreychuk count as a "David" for this stat?

(I'm kidding, don't shoot the entertainment. I'm here all week. Try the tuna.)

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Poe969

So over the last however many years, 2 teams have won the cup as an underdog and instead of modelling themselves after the 95+% of the teams through building a winning team, they plan on doing what that 1 team did...

It almost never works, but it'll be different for us!

You can easily spin this the other way. How many teams bottom out in the standings for several years to only have the team they build end up being mediocre, not quite good enough, or never good at all?

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Winning the Cup in a 32 team league is difficult. It’s unfair to make it the only measure of success. However, winning playoff rounds and getting closer to the Cup is not a matter of pure chance. Fans are not out of line to expect their team to win a couple rounds every few years, and to play in the conference finals a couple times when their franchise is at the top of its development cycle.

6/8 years, the Lightning were either knocking on the door of the finals, in the finals, or they won (twice). So 75% of those years they were in a real contending position. Not sure how he thinks that's lightning in a bottle. He hung himself with his own evidence.

And then he mentioned Vegas, which had a similar arch before winning, lol.

Unreal the mental gymnastics people will continue to play to hang on to the "get in and anything can happen" framework the Flames have sold them.

[Poe969]

Ya, don't try to copy them. Copy the team that wins the cup.

99% of the time, the contenders win. Try and be like that instead of hoping to be like the 1%. Build through the draft, make smart trades, be loyal to the team instead of the veteran players, acknowledged how good(or not good) your team is and approach the year accordingly instead of always trying to "just make it in because anything can happen", when star players won't re-sign know that you have to trade then, acquire picks when you can, take advantage of other teams, don't "win for pride" when the team is eliminated from the playoffs just to get the worst draft position....stuff like that.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Poe969

So over the last however many years, 2 teams have won the cup as an underdog and instead of modelling themselves after the 95+% of the teams through building a winning team, they plan on doing what that 1 team did...

It almost never works, but it'll be different for us!

The scorched earth rebuilds come down to a lot of luck as well. Even with the Lightning it was strong drafting outside of the first round and strong management. Trading Drouin salvaged a top 3 bust. I think they could have won without Stamkos as well.
Flames need to keep all their picks over the next three years even if they don’t rebuild.

Funny thing is that Detroit is quickly looking like a failed rebuild that will stall out in mediocrity.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

You can easily spin this the other way. How many teams bottom out in the standings for several years to only have the team they build end up being mediocre, not quite good enough, or never good at all?

The one way to guarantee this is by signing a boatload of old, non-franchise players to max term deals. Just because they refuse to rebuild doesn't mean they also have to make terrible signings.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Bonded

The scorched earth rebuilds come down to a lot of luck as well. Even with the Lightning it was strong drafting outside of the first round and strong management. Trading Drouin salvaged a top 3 bust. I think they could have won without Stamkos as well.
Flames need to keep all their picks over the next three years even if they don’t rebuild.

Funny thing is that Detroit is quickly looking like a failed rebuild that will stall out in mediocrity.

Detroit has 3 good D prospects that were 2nd round picks, and are going to make the jump in the next 2 years. They also have Kasper and Danielson at forward, both are still very young, but they will be difference makers at the NHL level. I think Detroit will be very good in 3-4 years, as long as one of their goalie prospects pans out.

[Hackey]

Tampa had 5 legitimate superstars in their prime. It's not a surprise they won't two cups and they sure as hell wouldn't consider rebuilding with that stacked roster.

The fear tactic of trying to use some of the worst managed teams in NHL history as a reason against rebuilding makes zero sense. If this management group can't build a winner through the strategy with the best odds, they sure as hell aren't building this on the fly. Especially with the age of their top players, lack of elite talent, mid round draft position, and inability to keep and attract big name players. Even in a worst case scenario where the rebuild doesn't play out as we hope, are we really in any worse position than we are now? Somehow watching the Iginla era Flames 2.0 fizzle out again is so exciting?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

The scorched earth rebuilds come down to a lot of luck as well. Even with the Lightning it was strong drafting outside of the first round and strong management. Trading Drouin salvaged a top 3 bust. I think they could have won without Stamkos as well.
Flames need to keep all their picks over the next three years even if they don’t rebuild.

Funny thing is that Detroit is quickly looking like a failed rebuild that will stall out in mediocrity.

They pretty much did win in 2020 without Stamkos (in the POs).

Detroit - people have to remember that half of TB wasn't built by Yzerman. I thought he did good things, but he's no guaranteed success. He didn't step into a team with Stamkos and Hedman on it. He didn't exactly build TB through a tank either. His only top 5 draft pick was Drouin at 3OA, who is a near bust. His first draft in 2010 was a dud (who knows how much he did). He did very well in 2011, getting Kucherov in round two and Palat in round 7 (!). He found Vasilevsky in late round one in 2012 (after wasting an earlier pick on Koekkoek). And he found Point and Cirelli in mid rounds. That's it.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

You can easily spin this the other way. How many teams bottom out in the standings for several years to only have the team they build end up being mediocre, not quite good enough, or never good at all?

Great question. I don't know if I have the answer but from my count
Looking at players drafted in the top 3 after 2003 who have won the cup with the team they were drafted with.
So I will be looking at 12 teams in that 20 year span.

1st OA

7/20 1st OA win the cup

Pittsburg, Washington, Chicago, Tampa bay and Colorado.

Since 2003 there have been six first overall picks who have won with the team they were drafted with the last being 2013 (COL) though in that time frame 1 other has gone on to win a cup with another team.


2nd OA

8/20

Tampa, Carolina, Anaheim, Pittsburg, Boston, Los Angeles, Colorado

3rd OA

3/20

Chicago, Colorado, Carolina


4th OA

4/20

St.Louis, Colorado, Washington, Carolina


Hm to Boston's 5th OA Kessel who has won a handful of cups.


There are only two teams that won cups after 2003 did not draft in the top 4 picks. Vegas, and the Detroit. Though both teams won with players who had been picked in the top four, either out of the time frame or by other teams.


My conclusion would be, teams that win the cup often pick up two key players in the top 4 picks of the draft in the years leading up to their win. Still, not every team that drafts in the top 4 picks are guaranteed a cup win (the ENG rule).

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

They pretty much did win in 2020 without Stamkos (in the POs).

Detroit - people have to remember that half of TB wasn't built by Yzerman. I thought he did good things, but he's no guaranteed success. He didn't step into a team with Stamkos and Hedman on it. He didn't exactly build TB through a tank either. His only top 5 draft pick was Drouin at 3OA, who is a near bust. His first draft in 2010 was a dud (who knows how much he did). He did very well in 2011, getting Kucherov in round two and Palat in round 7 (!). He found Vasilevsky in late round one in 2012 (after wasting an earlier pick on Koekkoek). And he found Point and Cirelli in mid rounds. That's it.

Yup. Feels like Tampa has a very solid group of amateur and pro scouts that provides a very solid base for any GM to work with.

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Is that recent? If so they came up a bit as the number I got was 65.4

If that's what you've herd, then its a whopping 325K a year.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Igottago

6/8 years, the Lightning were either knocking on the door of the finals, in the finals, or they won (twice). So 75% of those years they were in a real contending position. Not sure how he thinks that's lightning in a bottle. He hung himself with his own evidence.

And then he mentioned Vegas, which had a similar arch before winning, lol.

Unreal the mental gymnastics people will continue to play to hang on to the "get in and anything can happen" framework the Flames have sold them.

Yeah, I laughed at that, too. Pretty much the worst two examples you could give to prove his point.

[Bingo]

To me it's pointless to argue what strategy is best in today's NHL with the Flames near the bottom of the league in terms of where players want to play.

Doesn't appear they can keep players to the same degree. Likely can't attract them nor elite coaches or GMs.

If those are facts and not just an opinion (far from certain), hanging on to draft picks and drafting as much and as well as you can seems like the only path going forward until things change.

[jayswin]

One flaw in the fans that point at failed rebuilds as a reason to never go the full rebuild/burn it to the ground route is that sports leagues will naturally have poorly run/non full spending teams near the bottom, which skews the point being made, imo.

Yes, you can point to bottom out attempts and say "here's 3 teams that won cups going that route but here's 3 teams that have been bottom feeders for a decade and still aren't going anywhere with many high picks".

Well sure, but to me I look at a team like Arizona that just sucked on every level AND had zero willingness to spend to the cap. They weren't serious. So if you're a team looking to go a direction, the fact that every league has **** franchises that will suck and rarely gain from top picks, needs to be factored in.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Bingo

To me it's pointless to argue what strategy is best in today's NHL with the Flames near the bottom of the league in terms of where players want to play.

Doesn't appear they can keep players to the same degree. Likely can't attract them nor elite coaches or GMs.

If those are facts and not just an opinion (far from certain), hanging on to draft picks and drafting as much and as well as you can seems like the only path going forward until things change.

100% agree with this. Winnipeg started down that road when they came back to the league and it led them to building some great teams. Then when stars inevitably don't want to be there, they don't pay them max or lose them for nothing.

They just attempt to make trades and get assets back regardless of where they are in the standings. That's how the Flames need to do it.

[jayswin]

Which is what scares me about this season. I fear greatly that we're going to do decent in the regular season, have 5 or 6 pending free agents still here and then things will inevitably switch to "well, we can't show that we're selling now that we're in the mix for playoffs, not fair to the team".

Those are the decisions that keep you mediocre for years. Don't look at one season, look at a 5 - 7 year plan. If you can get 3-6 picks during the season/at the deadline, plus some NHL players back you do that over getting zero assets because all you care about is this season and the faint possibility of going on a run that works out.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by jayswin

One flaw in the fans that point at failed rebuilds as a reason to never go the full rebuild/burn it to the ground route is that sports leagues will naturally have poorly run/non full spending teams near the bottom, which skews the point being made, imo.

Yes, you can point to bottom out attempts and say "here's 3 teams that won cups going that route but here's 3 teams that have been bottom feeders for a decade and still aren't going anywhere with many high picks".

Well sure, but to me I look at a team like Arizona that just sucked on every level AND had zero willingness to spend to the cap. They weren't serious. So if you're a team looking to go a direction, the fact that every league has **** franchises that will suck and rarely gain from top picks, needs to be factored in.

You're right. Even if you dig a little deeper, there are only a handful of teams that have not turned high draft picks into success stories.
Trashers, Islands, Sabers are basically the list now that Toronto, and Edmonton are making continual playoff appearances. You could argue that the Devils belong on that list as well, but it looks like they're turning a corner. As for NYR and MTL its too early to tell.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

Detroit has 3 good D prospects that were 2nd round picks, and are going to make the jump in the next 2 years. They also have Kasper and Danielson at forward, both are still very young, but they will be difference makers at the NHL level. I think Detroit will be very good in 3-4 years, as long as one of their goalie prospects pans out.

We will see. They will need Danielson or Kasper to hit as #1 center.